Gale Warning 6, NWS Detroit, MI

632 
WHUS73 KDTX 070930
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
430 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT OVER LAKE HURON...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING.  MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY, STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.  PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TO
EMERGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY TONIGHT, AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GALES
THROUGHOUT LAKE HURON LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  STEADY DECLINE
IN WIND SPEED AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRESH WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP FOR THE THURSDAY PERIOD,
ALLOWING GUSTS TO REACH NEAR GALES BRIEFLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF LAKE HURON

LHZ361-362-072130-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
430 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 37 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-442-462-463-072130-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
430 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO

341 
WHUS73 KDTX 072054
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED EASTERLY WIND FIELD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS FLIP AROUND
TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING. COLD UNSTABLE AIR
WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LEADING TO A PERIOD OF GALES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAKE HURON BASIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL
THEN WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLD
AIR WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. THE RESULTANT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE.

LHZ361-362-080900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
354 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 37 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-442-462-463-080900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
354 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG

576 
WHUS73 KDTX 080254
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
954 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON TONIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED EASTERLY WIND
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS FLIP AROUND TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING. COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LEADING TO A PERIOD OF GALES TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE HURON BASIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL
THEN WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. THE RESULTANT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE.

LHZ361-362-081500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
954 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 47 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-442-462-463-081500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.170208T0300Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
954 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SC

657 
WHUS73 KDTX 080848
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...NORTHWEST GALES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...

.STEADY DECLINE IN WIND SPEED OF THE EXISTING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.   GUSTS TO NEAR GALES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON,
BEFORE DIMINISHING.  FRESH WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
THURSDAY PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERWAYS.  BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALES OR NEAR GALES LATE THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE HURON.  WINDS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.  DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS HIGH TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.

LHZ361-362-081500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
348 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 47 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-442-462-463-081500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
348 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MR

761 
WHUS73 KDTX 081510
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1010 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALES HAVE DISSIPATED...

.STEADY DECLINE IN WIND SPEED OF THE EXISTING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GUSTS TO NEAR GALES HAVE
DISSIPATED. WEST- NORTHWESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP FOR THE THURSDAY
PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERWAYS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO GALES OR NEAR GALES LATE THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF LAKE HURON WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.

LHZ361>363-421-422-441-442-462-463-081615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170208T1500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

DRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
648 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

.AVIATION...

Southeastern Michigan will largely remain within the warm sector
of a significant winter system that will strengthen over the area
Tuesday. The combination of high end moisture, PWATS easily
exceeding 1 inch late Tuesday morning, and cold ground will cause
significant aviation headaches over the next 24 hour period.
Impressive lower tropospheric northward surge in moisture was
easily discernible in visible imagery before nightfall and was a
good delineation line between IFR br and LIFR FOG. Been trying to
time it under IR imagery, and did push back an hour to 02Z for
the Detroit terminals. Otherwise, there are two significant
corridors of theta e content or secondary warm front features that
will surge northward tonight. The first is after 04Z when best
LIFR potential begins, and the second one is after 11Z when best
chance for heavier and more widespread precipitation will begin.
Warm surface temperature trends support very high probabilities
for warm rain ptype tonight. The one exception will be at KMBS for
an hour or two right around 07 or 08Z when surface temperatures
will be very close to the freezing mark. However, there is a very
strong signal for subsidence inversion down to 700mb. As a result,
meaningful precip rates will be difficult there with near freezing
conditions, prefer FZDZ mention. Also note, tafs are carrying a
rather significant duration for LIFR conditions on Tuesday.

FOR DTW...Conditions will steadily deteriorate this evening as wall
of near surface moisture will push into DTW at/around 02Z. There
will be a few moisture surges but LIFR conditions appear likely by
late evening.  The potential does exists for vsby below 1/2SM for a
period. A chance of thunderstorms also exists after 11Z as the
center of the low lifts into lower MI. Will not include in the Tafs
this issuance.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings falling below 5000 feet soon after the start of
  the period.

* High for ptype as rain tonight.

* Medium for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2SM
  sometime Tuesday morning.

* Low for thunder Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

DISCUSSION...

Record setting moist and warm airmass to make a run toward southeast
Michigan Tonight into Tomorrow morning. 12Z raob out of Springfield
Missouri indicating a 12 C dew point at 925 mb, and 00z/12z euro
does bring 925 mb dew pts near 10 C up to southeast Michigan, which
would set new sounding climatology record for early February. This
amount of low level moisture coming over the snow covered and frozen
ground will produce fog and low clouds (possible drizzle), and have
added widespread fog to forecast overnight into Tomorrow, which
could become dense and require an advisory.

Upper level ridge axis looks to be holding this evening into
Tonight, and thus as the low level warm air/moisture surges takes
place into southeast Michigan, there is no support in the mid
levels, with dry air holding (700 mb dew pt depression of 15 C at 6Z
Tuesday) and no ice nuclei to work with. NAM mos guidance and raw
temps out of Regional GEM/RAP/HRRR/GFS/EURO all seen rising above
freezing (Thumb region really the only questionable cold /freezing
location). With surface observations this afternoon indicating
surface dew pts of 40+ Degrees all the way up to northern Indiana,
not to mention precipitation looks to be spotty at best much of
Tonight, do not think there will be much of an issue with freezing
rain, and no headline is planned. Need to wait on the mid level
moisture surge, arriving closer to 12z Tuesday before good rainfall
arrives. This is not to say dirt roads will not be icy, as they take
longer to respond even with temperatures well above freezing.

Low level jet around 50 knots transporting the moist airmass will
lead to destabilization, as showalter index goes negative, with
favorable Mid Level (700-500 MB) lapse rates as well, all worthy of
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Very strong upper wave coming
out of the Pacific Northwest will push into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Tuesday morning, leading to the surface low track
mainly west of southeast Michigan (per model consensus), tracking
through Tri-Cities region during the afternoon. Thus, good shot at
Detroit Metro Area punching into the warm sector, sending temps into
the 50s, placing the daily record high temperatures in jeopardy.

Here are the record highs for February 7th:

Detroit 53 degrees (set in 1882).
Flint   50 degrees (set in 2009).
Saginaw 49 degrees (set in 2009).

Day 2 out of SPC brings marginal risk close to the Michigan border.
Surface-925 mb capes progged to reach up to 250 J/KG (Regional
GEM/GFS), still likely not enough but something to keep watchful eye
out for.

Still differences on the amount of deepening the low will undergo as
it crosses Lake Huron and moves into Eastern Canada (sub 980 mb or
not), which impacts our wind pop Tuesday evening and subsequent cold
advection. 6 HR rise/fall couplet increasing above 20 MB does draw
concern for wind gusts approaching 45 mph, but will be a bit more
conservative in the 35 mph to maybe 40 mph range.

Position of the 850-700 MB baroclinic zone will then become
important as a rather flat but strong pacific upper level wave
tracks through the Midwest late Tuesday night, and close to the
southern Michigan Border on Wednesday. Mid level FGEN response
likely over the northern Ohio valley, and it remains possible to end
up a bit farther north into southern Lower Michigan, and planning on
upping pops closer to our SREF weighted in house probabilistic
guidance. Even if the mid level fgen misses, increasing support for
lake effect snow showers as 850 mbs lower into the negative upper
teens, getting close to -20 C Thursday morning.

Cold air looks to be short lived as strong low tracks across
southern Canada Friday-Saturday with warm advection snow likely
developing over southeast Michigan on Friday as warm front lifts
north, setting us up for a mild Saturday with 850 mb temps progged
to reside in the mid to possibly upper single numbers. Another
strong low forecasted to slide across the Ohio valley for the
second half of the weekend, and although the track may end up
along the southern Michigan border, may not be enough cold air to
support snow (see 12z Euro/Canadian solutions).

MARINE...

A low pressure system will track from southern Lake Michigan Tuesday
morning across central Lake Huron Tuesday evening. this system will
bring a mix of precipitation along with increased winds of varying
directions. Wind will first increase out of the east in advance of
the low but will generally stay below 30 knots. Ice covering the
majority of the shoreline will prevent the need for a small craft
advisory for waves piling up. Winds will then veer through south
eventually becoming west/northwest. A tight gradient on the backside
of the low with unstable air moving in may result in a period of
gale force winds across the basin. The gale watch has been expanded
to include southern Lake Huron. Cold air spilling into Lake Huron
will also lead to heavy freezing spray during this time.

HYDROLOGY...

A low pressure system will lift through southern Michigan tonight
through Tuesday bringing between 0.3 and 0.75 inches of rain across
the area. Precipitation may start off as a wintry mix but will
quickly transition to all rain as warm air surges into the area.
There is a possibility of a few thunderstorms which would lead to
locally higher amounts. Colder air wrapping into the area behind the
low pressure system late Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring a
chance of light snow showers, but little if any runoff from this
activity expected.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning FOR
     LHZ462>464.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon FOR
     LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EST MON FEB 6 2017

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-071100-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
352 PM EST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND
COULD BECOME DENSE REQUIRING AN ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF M-59...BUT A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY ICING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-071100-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
352 PM EST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW,WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.

SF