Gale Warning 11, NWS Detroit, MI

231 
WHUS73 KDTX 260253
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALES CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...

.WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO GALES OVER MUCH OVER LAKE HURON THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 
HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT, WITH GALES LIKELY OVER CENTRAL CENTIONS OF LAKE 
HURON. THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO 
GALE WARNING, WITH INNER SAGINAW BAY ADDED AS WELL. THE WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN 
THEN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO THE 
REGION.

LHZ363-421-441-462-261500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170226T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.170226T1500Z-170227T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-463-464-260400-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170226T0300Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ422-261500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170226T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.170226T1500Z-170227T0300Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-260400-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170226T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ362-261500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170226T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.170226T1500Z-170227T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-260900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170226T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
953 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG

543 
WHUS73 KDTX 260903
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SOUTHWEST GALES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
SAGINAW BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN 
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW DURING 
THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE 
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER 
LOWER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN FAVOR 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BY MONDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS IN 
THE FORM OF LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND MILDER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE 
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO ARRIVE 
WEDNESDAY ON A TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY 
COLDER AIR ON MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

LHZ362-262130-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170226T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.170226T1500Z-170227T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-261015-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170226T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

$$

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-262130-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.170226T1500Z-170227T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-262130-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0013.170226T1500Z-170227T0000Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-262130-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0013.170226T1500Z-170227T0000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
403 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Strong upper trough axis is exiting the area, and should be to our
east by 21Z. Lower Michigan will become positioned between this wave
and another one upstream tonight, allowing high pressure centered
over the Tennessee Valley to expand up into the area. Light snow
shower/flurries over Southeast Michigan should end this evening, as
inversion heights over Lake Michigan lower and subsidence behind the
trough takes hold. Drier air and flow turning more to the southwest
should allow for partial clearing late tonight before high and mid
clouds blanket the area again towards morning. Breaks in the clouds
and cooler air continuing to filter in the area will drop
temperatures into the low 20s tonight.

Upper shortwave seen on water vapor over Southern Saskatchewan will
drop across the Northern Great Lakes Sunday. Main effect from this
will be a re-strengthening of the surface pressure gradient between
weak surface low pressure to our north and the high over the
Tennessee Valley. Steep lapse rates of 7-9 C/km in the low levels
combined with strong core of 40-45 knot winds above 2000 feet
arriving in the late afternoon and evening should provide for a
windy day. Gusts look to reach to about 40 mph (NAM, as typical,
hints at a little stronger) before a weak nocturnal inversion sets
in during the late evening. Precipitation chances tomorrow look
paltry as surface low pressure passes to our north. Isentropic
ascent along an elevated warm front looks weak as does moisture
advection, and most likely outcome tomorrow is just clouds. The
exception could be over Bay and Midland counties, closer to surface
troughing and better forcing from the upper wave, but lower levels
may stay too dry, and will only retain slight chance pops there.
Thermal profiles from forecast soundings over the Saginaw Valley
support snow showers, with dewpoints in the lowest 5000 feet solidly
below freezing. No accumulation is expected. Max temperatures will
warm under weak advection and clouds, reaching close to 40.

Zonal flow and southwest winds will help temperatures warm further on
Monday, pushing highs well into the 40s for most of the area. Ascent
increasing late Monday night in advance of the next low pressure
system will bring a chance for precipitation late along/south of M-
59. Higher temperatures and dewpoints advecting into the area per
latest NAM/GFS look warm enough to support rain overnight.

A warm front ahead of a weak surface low will bring the increasing
chance for precipitation early Tuesday. WAA will usher above
freezing 850 mb temperatures by 12Z as seen throughout the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM model suites, bringing a rain solution to the CWA
throughout the day. A second surface low is expected to develop over
Kansas/Missouri late Tuesday to early Wednesday, and will push
northeast into the southern half of Michigan by late Wednesday. This
will allow the chance for precipitation to continue through
Wednesday, with PoP values diminishing throughout Thursday. Surface
temperatures are expected to hold well above freezing Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will continue to bring a rain solution throughout
the CWA. This is further confirmed by 850 mb temperatures averaging
6-8 C by 6Z Wed. A swift transition from rain to a wintry mix and
then snow solution will be possible late Wednesday into Thursday as
the surface low pushes east of MI, ushering in cooler Canadian air
into the region. Additionally, a strong pressure gradient on the
back-end of the low will bring breezy conditions and possible gale
force winds over the lakes late Wednesday into Thursday.

Otherwise, the chance for precipitation will taper off Thursday into
Friday, as high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures
will stray away from seasonal norms, peaking into the 40s to 50 for
the first half of the week. Cooler air from the back-end of the low
will return the more seasonal values, as temperatures return into
the 30s for a high by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly wind gusts to gales over much over Lake Huron this
afternoon will come to an end this evening, as a ridge of high
pressure arrives tomorrow morning over the Central Great Lakes.
However, southwest winds will quickly increase during Sunday ahead
of a cold front, with gales likely over central centions of Lake
Huron. The gale watch for Sunday afternoon has been converted to
Gale Warning, with Inner Saginaw Bay added as well. The weakening
cold front will track through Sunday evening, with high pressure
leading to light winds by Monday morning. Light southerly winds can
then be expected early next week as milder air returns to the
region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

AVIATION...

Westerly cold advection and deep mixing allowing for wind gusts up
around 30 knots this afternoon, with the low levels slowly drying
out. Cold flow off Lake Michigan will attempt to slow the process
(flurries this afternoon), with good subsidence kicking in early
this evening behind mid level cold pool exiting east. Will maintain
low VFR/possible high MVFR ceilings for much of Tonight underneath
subsidence inversion, but low level warm advection kicking in by
sunrise should allow for a quick dissipation in the low clouds, with
mid/high clouds spreading in during Sunday. Once again, winds look
to be strong tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts
around 30 knots, but out of the southwest direction.

For DTW... Westerly wind gusts around 30 knots will continue this
afternoon, helping to dry out the low levels, with just flurries
expected as Lake Michigan activity struggles to reach the terminal.
Banking on just enough moisture to become trapped underneath
strengthening low level inversion this evening to support Low
VFR/borderline MVFR ceilings, with clearing taking place sometime in
7-11Z time frame.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less through 7Z, then low.

* Low for exceeding westerly cross wind threshold today.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ363-421-441>443-
     462>464.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ362-363-421-422-
     441-462.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ361-362.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.

&&

DISCUSSION...HLO/AM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
944 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-261445-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
944 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-261445-
Lake St. Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
944 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A gale warning is in effect today through this evening for all of Saginaw
Bay and Lake Huron. Small craft advisories are in effect for all
other marine areas, and will likely be needed for the Lake Huron
nearshore waters tonight after the Gale Warning expires. Please see
the latest marine forecasts for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A gale watch is in effect Sunday for central sections of Lake Huron
and small craft advisories will likely be needed for all other
marine areas. Refer to the latest marine forecast for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

HLO