Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Des Moines, IA

938 
WWUS53 KDMX 210036
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
736 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAC073-077-210100-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-170721T0100Z/
Greene IA-Guthrie IA-
736 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN GUTHRIE COUNTIES...

At 735 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles east of Coon Rapids to near Lake Panorama,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Bayard Fire Department. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Lake Panorama, Bayard, Bagley, Yale and Springbrook State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Des Moines .

&&

LAT...LON 4193 9440 4174 9435 4175 9450 4190 9463
      4191 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 267DEG 7KT 4188 9452 4181 9445 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Kotenberg

954 
WWUS53 KDMX 210055
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
755 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAC073-077-210105-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-170721T0100Z/
Greene IA-Guthrie IA-
755 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND
NORTHEASTERN GUTHRIE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However dime size 
hail is still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 4193 9440 4174 9435 4175 9450 4190 9463
      4191 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 267DEG 7KT 4188 9447 4181 9440 

$$

Kotenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A weak surface frontal boundary has sagged southward into central
Iowa today and currently stretches roughly along the Highway 30
corridor. There is only a moderate temperature difference across
the boundary to the tune of about five degrees and dewpoints are
essentially the same on either side. Meanwhile a weak mid-level
shortwave is approaching along the South Dakota/Nebraska border,
generating a few light showers from around Sioux Falls down to
Lincoln. Heat indices are in the 100-110 degree range along and
south of the central Iowa frontal boundary in accordance with the
ongoing heat headlines.

There is some question as to whether or not we will see
thunderstorm development this evening associated with peak diurnal
heating. While instability values are very high weak capping
remains in place and there is no real upper-level forcing or
support for convection. Surface winds are weak with very little
convergence along the frontal boundary. Nevertheless, if the cap
can be breached we may see widely scattered thunderstorms near or
just south of the boundary, as we saw yesterday evening, and
slight chance POPs have been introduced accordingly. The magnitude
of instability supports a marginal severe weather threat, but
this is limited by the lack of organized forcing or shear. This is
well outlined by SPC products.

As the shortwave approaching from our northwest moves across
northern Iowa overnight, it will gradually draw the surface
boundary northward as a warm front and also support development of
more widespread thunderstorms over northern Iowa overnight.
Likely POPs have been maintained after midnight and again there
will be a severe weather risk. Given the high humidity/PWATs and
relatively slow forward motion of any storms there is a risk of
locally heavy rainfall, however the topography and antecedent
conditions in this area mitigate any flash flooding threat.

On Friday the boundary and associated convection will continue to
push north/northeastward through the day, possibly clearing our
area into Minnesota, and it will be very hot and humid once again.
given the orientation of the retreating boundary/storms and
associated heating, forecast heat index values exceed 105 degrees
a little north of the current advisory and west of I-35, so will
add a few counties up there in conjunction with expansion across
the Sioux Falls office forecast area in northwest Iowa.

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Area of high pressure to the south still in control of much of the
area to begin the period with the broad upper ridge aloft. Start to
see some dampening of it by late Friday into the weekend, however
thermal ridge to be building in further with +26C at H85 by Friday
night across central IA. An upper trough to move through southern
Canada Saturday with an associated cold front dropping through the
state late Saturday into Sunday. This will finally break the heat
that has been in place across the state this week. Prior to this
however, a complex of thunderstorms expected to drop through the
northern/eastern portions of the area Friday night. Storms are
expected to develop in the late afternoon/early evening hours across
central MN and ride down the edge of the cap/instability gradient
southeastward. This may clip the northeast/east with potential for
severe storms. Additional development may occur on outflow
boundaries across the northern areas late that night as well when
the LLJ increases with moisture advection right into
northern/eastern IA Friday evening. PWATs push to around 2 inches,
so an abundance of moisture around and high freezing levels will
lead to efficient rain production. Storms appear to be progressive
and even with some storms over that area in the past few days, FFG
still 2.5 to 3 inches for 6 hours and 1.5 to 2 inches for 1 hour.
Therefore even with the threat of heavy rainfall, soil conditions
and current flash flood guidance suggests the area should be able to
take some rain before having too many issues. Also storm
mode/movement appear to be fairly progressive so again will still
monitor for heavy rain potential, but widespread heavy rain appears
low at this time.

H85 temps drop into the teens by Sunday and remain there into early
next week with much cooler temperatures expected by Monday/Tuesday
with highs only in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Upper ridging builds back
in for the middle of next week, with warmer temperatures building in
again as well. Thermal progs don't suggest temperatures as warm as
currently are in place, but expect highs to climb back into the 80s
and low to mid 90s. Another cool front to drop through the state
late Tuesday into the middle of the week. This boundary will remain
quasi-stationary across the state through the end of next week, so
will bring the next chances for rainfall/storms across the area. The
boundary right now appears to push south of the state toward Friday,
which may trend toward dry conditions just beyond the current
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Main concern this evening is possible thunderstorm development.
Both far western and far eastern Iowa have a thunderstorm at 00z
TAF issuance and have noticed recent cumulus development just
east of KDSM. Have not included VCTS at this time due to low
confidence in any storm impacting a terminal. However, expect
thunderstorms to increase in coverage after midnight into Friday
morning over northern Iowa and have VCTS mentioned. Outside of
thunderstorms, there may even be a small window around sunrise of
patchy fog bringing MVFR visibilities to KMCW and KALO.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ057>062-
070>075-081>086-092>097.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ023-024-033>037-
044>050.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-211100-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the area through
Saturday. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into
tonight, mainly north of Highway 34. A severe storm or two may
occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the area through
Saturday. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

A few thunderstorms are possible between Friday night and Saturday
night, then again around Wednesday night. A few severe storms may
be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely at this time.

IAZ023-024-033>037-044>050-211100-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Crawford-
Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the area through Saturday.
Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Thunderstorms are possible late this evening, then likely after
midnight tonight. A few severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the area through Saturday.
Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night,
then again by late Wednesday. A few severe storms and locally
heavy rainfall are possible Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times tonight and Friday.

IAZ004>007-015>017-025>028-038-039-211100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Grundy-Black Hawk-
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are possible late this evening, then likely after
midnight tonight. A few severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night,
then again by late Wednesday. A few severe storms and locally
heavy rainfall are possible Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times tonight and Friday.

Lee

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
705 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAZ033-044-045-210100-
Sac IA-Carroll IA-Crawford IA-
705 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Odebolt, or near Denison, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Odebolt, Black Hawk Lake, Schleswig, Wall Lake, Schaller,
Early, Breda, Kiron, Deloit, Wall Lake Municipal Airport and
Blackhawk Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9532 4246 9532 4256 9524 4222 9486
      4221 9486 4221 9485 4216 9479 4206 9540
      4221 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 243DEG 21KT 4219 9532

MF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
713 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAZ046-058-210100-
Guthrie IA-Greene IA-
713 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coon Rapids, or 12 miles north of Guthrie Center, moving northeast at
5 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bayard, Bagley and Springbrook State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 9464 4186 9463 4192 9463 4190 9435
      4174 9438 4181 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 204DEG 5KT 4186 9456

Kotenberg