Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Des Moines, IA

217 
WWUS53 KDMX 122239
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
539 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC013-122249-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-170712T2315Z/
Black Hawk IA-
539 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BLACK HAWK
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4264 9213 4264 9240 4269 9243 4291 9221
      4291 9209 4266 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 233DEG 22KT 4273 9224 

$$

IAC017-122315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-170712T2315Z/
Bremer IA-
539 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN BREMER COUNTY...

At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tripoli, or 11
miles east of Waverly, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sumner, Denver, Tripoli and Readlyn. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9213 4264 9240 4269 9243 4291 9221
      4291 9209 4266 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 233DEG 22KT 4273 9224 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Beerends

811 
WWUS53 KDMX 122255
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC017-122305-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-170712T2315Z/
Bremer IA-
555 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BREMER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4264 9213 4264 9240 4269 9243 4291 9221
      4291 9209 4266 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 231DEG 25KT 4280 9212 

$$

Beerends

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Temperatures have been a challenge today as it relates to excessive
heat concerns. A tropical airmass with high humidity remains in
place across the heat advisory area over central and southern Iowa.
Cloud cover, mainly in the form of remnant convective debris, has
held surface temps in the mid 80s to low 90s so far. Temperatures
have been quick to recover where pockets of sunshine have been
realized. Localized areas of heat indices in excess of 100-105
degrees are possible through late afternoon. Relief is already
moving into the state behind a southward advancing cold front. Dew
points in northwest Iowa have fallen into the low to mid 60s. Expect
the front to clear the entire forecast area overnight, bringing an
end to the excessive heat concerns for now.

A weak vort max over central and eastern Nebraska has helped trigger
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front. Additional
development is likely to the east along the front as CIN further
erodes. Isolated storms are also possible south of the front where
convective temperatures are reached in areas of momentary sunshine.
The environment is highly unstable with 20-30 kts of effective
shear, but so far the storms have been of the multicellular variety
producing mainly heavy rainfall. The storms should ebb and flow in
intensity into the evening hours, moving slowly and mostly parallel
to the slowly southward sagging frontal axis. Model soundings show a
pocket of dry air just off the surface to about 3km contributing to
dcape values of 1000+ J/kg, so a few gusty downburst winds cannot be
ruled out. Storm coverage and intensity should wane with the loss of
peak heating by mid to late evening.

850-700mb theta-e advection ramps up late this evening and overnight
in concert with a strengthening southwest to northeast oriented low
level jet. Additional thunderstorm development is likely as the jet
encounters a zone of enhanced low to mid-level frontogenetical
forcing. Hi-res models have shown steady agreement through the day
highlighting areas between I-80 and the MO border. Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be a concern due to deep warm
cloud depths, anomalously high pwats near 2.00 in, and the potential
for back building convection.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Residual convection will pass through southern Iowa in the morning
as boundary continues to gradually sink south into Missouri.
Otherwise, drier and cooler air associated with Canadian surface
ridge will advect into the state and linger into Friday. However,
upper ridging building across the Rockies over the next few days
with heat developing once again to the west and progressing toward
the state into early next week. There will be one shortwave the
tops the ridge later Saturday and drops into the Midwest. This
will bring a front through the state late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Moisture will remain somewhat limited and the bulk
of forcing will be northeast of the state. An isolated storm will
still be possible with the passage of this boundary, but most
locations will be dry with passage.

Heat will build into early next week with readings into the 90s by
Monday in southern Iowa and most location by Tuesday. Main
difference in models in this package is the center of the upper
ridge is farther south than previous runs. Therefore, the southern
edge of the westerlies will be closer to Iowa and it appears there
will be better chances for storms into the middle of next week
than earlier solutions. This also may limit the duration and
extent of the heat into the later half of the week although much
can still change between now and then. However, given the recent
dryness, the somewhat 'wetter' pattern would be welcome in most
locations.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Primary forecast concern through the next 24 hours will be
thunderstorm activity later today and into the overnight hours.
Storms are expected to develop in central Iowa later this
afternoon, possibly impacting KALO and KFOD. Only VCTS was
mentioned at this time due to uncertainties with spatial coverage
of the activity. Any storm will have the potential to produce hail
and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. Further south,
additional storms will develop later in the evening and continue
overnight. Confidence is highest south of Interstate 80 including
KOTM.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the most
part. MVFR or lower cigs may move into north central Iowa
tomorrow morning as a stratus sags south out of Minnesota.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Isolated flash flood threat exists across the southern CWA tonight,
mainly south of I-80. Heavy rain parameters suggest potential for
training storms tonight along with deep warm cloud depths. Am
expecting isolated flash flood potential, though, given relatively
high flash flood guidance. Main concerns would be limited to towns
or areas that receive very heavy rainfall.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ038-039-048>050-
059>062-071>075-081>086-092>097.

Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
morning for IAZ070>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Martin
HYDROLOGY...Zogg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>035-132045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

No hazardous weather expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IAZ026>028-036>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-132045-
Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-
Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-
Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue late this afternoon and into
the evening hours. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Localized areas of heavy rainfall are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IAZ081>086-092>097-132045-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are expected late this evening and overnight. While
the threat for severe weather will be low, heavy rainfall
leading to localized areas of flash flooding will be possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Lingering thunderstorms are possible through Thursday morning,
however the threat for severe weather will be low.

No additional hazardous weather is expected through the remainder
of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             YALE                    41.78N 94.36W
07/12/2017  E0.88 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FOWLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
410 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAZ059-122145-
Dallas IA-
410 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...DIME SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodward, or near Perry, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Granger, Woodward, Minburn and Bouton.

LAT...LON 4186 9397 4186 9382 4175 9382 4175 9409
      4182 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 253DEG 18KT 4179 9399

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAZ037-122200-
Hardin IA-
429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND NICKEL HAIL POSSIBLE...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eldora, moving east at 10 mph.

Funnel clouds have been observed with storms today and this storm
has some weak rotation that may produce brief funnel clouds. Nickel
size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eldora, Hubbard, Union, New Providence, Whitten, Pine Lake State Park
and Eldora Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9301 4221 9312 4224 9331 4236 9330
      4239 9300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 269DEG 9KT 4230 9320

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
439 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAZ048-122215-
Story IA-
439 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...NICKEL HAIL POSSIBLE IN STORY COUNTY...

At 438 PM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm near Nevada,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ames, Nevada, Story City, Roland, Gilbert and McCallsburg.

LAT...LON 4197 9351 4208 9370 4210 9370 4221 9352
      4213 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 300DEG 10KT 4208 9351

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
451 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAZ027-038-122215-
Grundy IA-Butler IA-
451 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...NICKEL HAIL POSSIBLE NEAR PARKERSBURG...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Parkersburg, or 13 miles north of Grundy Center, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, New Hartford and Stout.

LAT...LON 4246 9279 4255 9288 4269 9270 4254 9255
      4253 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 237DEG 14KT 4255 9274

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
458 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAZ048-122230-
Story IA-
458 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN STORY COUNTY...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huxley, or near Ames, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nevada, Huxley, Cambridge and Kelley.

LAT...LON 4187 9364 4195 9369 4203 9350 4187 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 237DEG 14KT 4193 9359

Beerends