Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Des Moines, IA

123 
WWUS53 KDMX 160003
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
703 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC013-023-075-160015-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-170616T0015Z/
Black Hawk IA-Grundy IA-Butler IA-
703 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK...NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY AND SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New Hartford, 
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Falls, New Hartford and Stout. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 9274 4267 9267 4265 9255 4264 9255
      4264 9249 4244 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 287DEG 34KT 4256 9256 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A weak boundary has pushed into north central Iowa this afternoon
and has been the focus for some cumulus development in vicinity of
region of speed convergence. This mixing has dropped dewpoints
into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the state and this has
limited instability overall. A few storms though may develop in
region of weak stability in the vicinity of Waterloo/Cedar Falls.
These storms may have an attendant damaging wind and/or large hail
threat.

A bigger concern for severe weather develops over southwest and
south central Iowa later this evening as the low level jet
intensifies and surges north. This will continue to lift MUCAPES
of 3000-4000 J/kg further north towards Interstate 80. Golfball
sized hail and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible with
these storms. PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches will lead to
areas with brief heavy rainfall. The storms will begin to push
east of the forecast area after midnight.

A few isolated storms may reach far northwest Iowa Friday morning
though mainly dry weather should prevail through mid afternoon.
The surface warm front should surge back north towards the
Minnesota by Friday afternoon. That said, storms tonight likely
with have a large outflow area that will impact the warm front
advance during the morning but it should recover by the afternoon
as the pressure gradient increases with as low pressure moves into
western Nebraska. Storm initiation is anticipated in vicinity of
the boundary. These storms may initially be discrete then evolve
into an MCS and drive southeast along a strong instability
gradient. As of now, the main focus for these storms will be over
the western half of Iowa. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat though given the amount of instability and deep layer shear
over 40 kts, strong/organized updrafts will bring a large hail
threat especially early. A few tornadoes may also occur. SPC has
upgraded to an enhanced risk for this region. Possible this may
require an additional upgrade to moderate if everything falls into
place.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu
Jun 15 2017

The severe weather threat will continue on Saturday, though
despite better mid level dynamics associated with the approach of
a vigorous shortwave, more uncertainty does exists Saturday.
Several potential scenarios that could play out Saturday. The
first is Friday night storms contaminate the airmass and hold the
warm front further south considering a weaker pressure gradient
will be in place. Second, the airmass destabilizes as the triple
point lifts into central Iowa and thunderstorms fire during the
afternoon as the upper level dynamics arrive and storms quickly
become severe. Third, the overnight MCS from South Dakota arrives
and interacts with a quickly destabilizing air mass over the
northern half of Iowa and storms become severe by late
morning/early afternoon before growing upscale and pushing east
of the warning area. Scenarios two or three are the most likely
and suspect SPC will upgrade the current Day 3 slight risk by
Saturday. Anyone with outdoor activities planned or camping this
weekend should pay special attention to weather forecasts and
warnings through Saturday.

The boundary moves through Saturday night and will bring much
cooler and less volatile weather through much of next week as a
transition to northwest flow occurs. The flow will transition
back to more zonal towards Thursday and will bring a return of
warmer and potentially more active weather.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon/
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Convective trends will be the primary aviation challenge through
the period. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms likely to develop
along a line from near KALO/KDSM late this afternoon then become
more focused southern Iowa including KOTM this evening. Outflow
boundaries and gusty winds will be possible in vicinity of storms.
Late tonight into Friday morning should be mostly quiet with
south to southwest winds at 5 to 15 kt and VFR conditions.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon and
tonight. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over
central Iowa with hail and strong, gusty winds the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are forecast at intervals from Friday
through Saturday night. There will be an increased threat of
severe weather at times, in the form of large hail and
particularly damaging winds. The highest severe weather risk will
be across about the southern half of Iowa on Friday night, and
areawide on Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed at times between this evening and Saturday
evening.

Ansorge

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             42.78N 92.67W
06/15/2017  E0.75 INCH       BUTLER             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
623 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             HAMPTON                 42.75N 93.20W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
624 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             PARKERSBURG             42.57N 92.78W
06/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       BUTLER             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             2 SE HANSELL            42.74N 93.08W
06/15/2017  E2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IA   PUBLIC

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             PLAINFIELD              42.84N 92.54W
06/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       BREMER             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             CEDAR FALLS             42.52N 92.45W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BSS