Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
331 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

The system that has been affecting the forecast area has reached
Upper Michigan this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient remains
over the area with gusty winds. Ashland, WI, still gusting to 42
mph. The marine obs. at Port Wing and Saxon Harbor continue to
report wind gust from 40 to 46 mph. The pressure gradient will
persist through the evening, and not expecting the wind to
diminish much, have extended the Lakeshore Flood Warning from
Douglas to Iron counties through 10 pm.

The light snow will prevail from the North Shore, through the Twin
Ports and east through northwest Wisconisn tonight. Amounts will
be lower along the North Shore to Duluth and Cloquet. An
additional inch is possible with up to 2 more inches over the
higher terrain of Lake and Cook counties.

Have extended the Winter Storm Warning for Douglas and Bayfield
until 10 pm, and left the expiration time as is for Ashland and
Iron counties. An additional 2 to 4 inches is forecast for
Douglas and Bayfield, with isolated higher amounts. Another 5 to 8
inches is possible for Ashland and Iron along the Gogebic Range,
with 2 to 5 more inches away from Lake Superior.

Elsewhere, tonight and Saturday, high pressure will begin to work
its way across the area ending the light snow where it hasn't
already stopped. The exception will be over eastern Ashland, Iron
and part of Price county, where mixed rain and snow is possible
Saturday afternoon. This is due to the northerly flow over Lake
Superior in concert with the depart area of low pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

The main challenge for the long term involves several rounds of
light snow from Sunday through much of the upcoming week.

A ridge of high pressure will move through the Northland Saturday
night ahead of the next clipper system arriving on Sunday. As the
low dips southward through northwest Ontario, light snow showers
are possible over much of the Northland. Snowfall chances
increase over northern Minnesota Sunday night as the surface low
drifts southeastward over Lake Superior. Light snow is forecast
for Monday into Monday night. By Monday afternoon winds over the
lake will veer northerly and eventually northeasterly increasing
the latent heat and moisture flux from Lake Superior. Snow rates
are forecast to increase from the Twin Ports eastward across
northwest Wisconsin, especially during the evening. Another
transient ridge will move through the region on Tuesday bringing
a break in precipitation. Another potent storm system clipper
will move into the region by Wednesday night with a chance of
widespread precipitation. Temperatures will be warm enough for a
rain/snow mix which will limit the expected snow amounts. There
are concerns about the surface temperatures with the snowpack
we've added today. Forecast temperatures may be a bit too
warm considering how far south and west today's snow extends.
That system is several days away and later forecast revisions may
increase snow potential.

With the early snowfall across the area, temperatures will trend
below average during the extended period. Highs will be in the
30s to low 40s and overnight lows are forecast in the teens and
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

A potent Autumn storm system was centered over western Upper
Michigan early this afternoon with light snow or a mix of rain and
snow reported across most of the terminals. The heaviest snow
will continue to affect HYR through this evening while snowfall
rates ease at the remaining sites. Strong northerly winds will
continue into this evening. Look for MVFR ceilings after snowfall
ends, gradually lifting toward VFR for all but HYR by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  36  24  39 /  70  10  10  70
INL  21  35  24  39 /   0   0  60  70
BRD  23  37  25  41 /  10   0  20  50
HYR  29  38  22  39 /  90  20   0  60
ASX  31  39  24  40 / 100  40  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001>004.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for WIZ003-004.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001-002.

MN...None.
LS...Storm Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-144>148.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>143.

&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
350 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-281030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
350 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Winter Storm Warning and a Lakeshore Flood Warning remain in
effect for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron counties. See the
latest winter and coastal flood products for details. An
additional1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast for the Arrowhead
through the Twin Ports into tonight. Another 2 to 6 inches is
possible in northwest Wisconsin, with higher amounts probable in
the elevated terrain areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Several rounds of snow are forecast during the latter half of the
weekend through the upcoming week. There is a potential for
another several inches of snow by next Thursday night. Keep
up with the latest forecast through the weekend for additional
details on snow totals.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snow spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements
to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-281030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
350 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong north to northeast winds will continue through tonight.
Storm and Gale Warnings are in effect, and Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed after the gale conditions subside. Please
refer to the latest marine forecast, Storm, and Gale Warning
products for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong north winds will continue to subside across western Lake
Superior on Saturday.

Several clipper systems will move through the region from Sunday
through late next week. Each system will bring the potential for
strong winds and dangerous waves.

GSF/Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
402 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             GILE                    46.43N 90.23W
10/27/2017  M2.5 INCH        IRON               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWING AT TIME OF REPORT WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A
            MILE.

&&

JJM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>