Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

updated to adjust pop trends based on current radar. Heavy rain is
expected across areas along highway 70 with radar indicating
abundant moisture moving toward area. rst of fcst unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

An elevated warm front was located over the southern third of the
forecast area at 1930Z. Showers and thunderstorms continue to
form along the front, which also coincides with leftover outflow
boundaries from earlier convection. These storms will percolate
through this area through this evening with highest pops in
northwest Wisconsin. Some of the storms may be on the strong side
with heavy rain possible. Elsewhere, high pressure was in play.
Another line of showers and storms was forming in northwest
Minnesota and will move through the International Falls area
through early this evening before ending. The showers and storms
will end from west to east over northwest Wisconsin later tonight
with the high pressure in charge. Even with the light wind
expected tonight, short term hires models are downplaying the fog
potential. Will leave out for now.

A stronger area of high pressure over Manitoba will affect the
region on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

A warm front will continue to be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms early in the period. On Monday night, the warm front
will start to lift northward across Minnesota and Wisconsin,
generating thunderstorms first in the south, and then spreading
northward during the night. Surface low pressure will then lift into
western Minnesota on Tuesday, as a massive upper level trough
dominates the west. A strong jet streak rounding the base of the
trough by Tuesday night will set the stage for strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms as a cold front west of the CWA starts to move
eastward. We could see some locally heavy rainfall, along with some
large hail and damaging winds on Tuesday night. The showers and
storms will continue into Wednesday as the cold front meanders
slowly across the western Great Lakes. Things should generally quiet
down for the rest of the long term period, as we will be in a bit
more stable westerly flow. Still we could see some periodic
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures
throughout the week should generally range from the 70s to lower
80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

VFR at all airports this evenign except at HYR where IFR/MVFR will
occur due to thunderstorms moving across the area. There will be a
possibility of fog lowering conditions to MVFR at HYR and HIB due
to today's rain. It will be VFR on Monday at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  80  53  63 /  20  10  30  40
INL  52  76  51  72 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  55  82  59  78 /  10  10  50  40
HYR  58  84  61  79 /  80  10  50  40
ASX  55  81  52  69 /  80  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Stewart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-121200-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A round of strong to severe storms barreled through east-central
Minnesota through parts of northwest Wisconsin this morning,
bringing strong to severe winds to those areas. More thunderstorms
are possible across northwest Wisconsin and parts of central into
northeast Minnesota through tonight. Some of the storms from
east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin could be strong to
severe this afternoon and evening. The main threats from the the
storms will be large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain. The heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible for Monday,
especially for southern portions of the Northland. Some storms
could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the
main threats.

Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday across much
of the Northland. Strong to severe storms will be possible in
north- central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large
hail and damaging winds expected from the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LSZ121-140>148-121200-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few rounds of thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
across western Lake Superior, especially along the south shore. A
few storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible across western Lake Superior Tuesday
night into Wednesday. These storms are not expected to be severe.

Increasing easterly winds Monday night through Wednesday will
lead to building waves across western Lake Superior, which will
result in hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed.

G2

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ008-009-120015-
Price-Sawyer-
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PRICE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SAWYER COUNTIES...

At 648 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
13 miles southwest of Fifield, to Hawkins, and moving northeast at 45
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half-inch hail, heavy downpours, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Fifield and Catawba around 705 PM CDT.
  Phillips and Prentice around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Connors Lake,
Kennan, Wilson Lake Near Phillips, Musser Lake, and Cranberry Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4564 9068 4564 9077 4581 9072 4593 9024
      4553 9028 4547 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 245DEG 37KT 4578 9066 4549 9074

DAP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ004-009-120015-
Price-Iron-
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN IRON AND
NORTHEASTERN PRICE COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was 9 miles west of
Squirrel Lake, or 13 miles south of Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving
east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half-inch hail, heavy downpours, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pike Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4598 8993 4598 9004 4580 9004 4579 9016
      4597 9016 4604 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 255DEG 32KT 4589 9009

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
756 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW RADISSON          45.78N 91.23W
06/11/2017                   SAWYER             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY H AT BEAVER BROOK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E NEW POST            45.90N 91.17W
06/11/2017                   SAWYER             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTIONS OF WEST FLOWAGE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0745 PM     FLOOD            OJIBWA                  45.80N 91.12W
06/11/2017                   SAWYER             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOOD WATER OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN
            OJIBWA AND COUDERAY.

&&

SGOHDE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
806 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ009-120130-
Price-
806 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY...

At 806 PM CDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was 8 miles south of
Catawba, or 20 miles north of Medford, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half-inch hail, heavy downpours, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Ogema around 820 PM CDT.
  Spirit around 830 PM CDT.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4549 9063 4551 9004 4538 9004 4538 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 264DEG 45KT 4542 9050

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E BUTTERNUT           46.01N 90.46W
06/11/2017  M2.93 INCH       ASHLAND            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
832 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW WINTER            45.85N 91.08W
06/11/2017  M3.69 INCH       SAWYER             WI   MESONET

&&

SGOHDE