Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

An elevated warm front was located over the southern third of the
forecast area at 1930Z. Showers and thunderstorms continue to
form along the front, which also coincides with leftover outflow
boundaries from earlier convection. These storms will percolate
through this area through this evening with highest pops in
northwest Wisconsin. Some of the storms may be on the strong side
with heavy rain possible. Elsewhere, high pressure was in play.
Another line of showers and storms was forming in northwest
Minnesota and will move through the International Falls area
through early this evening before ending. The showers and storms
will end from west to east over northwest Wisconsin later tonight
with the high pressure in charge. Even with the light wind
expected tonight, short term hires models are downplaying the fog
potential. Will leave out for now.

A stronger area of high pressure over Manitoba will affect the
region on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

A warm front will continue to be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms early in the period. On Monday night, the warm front
will start to lift northward across Minnesota and Wisconsin,
generating thunderstorms first in the south, and then spreading
northward during the night. Surface low pressure will then lift into
western Minnesota on Tuesday, as a massive upper level trough
dominates the west. A strong jet streak rounding the base of the
trough by Tuesday night will set the stage for strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms as a cold front west of the CWA starts to move
eastward. We could see some locally heavy rainfall, along with some
large hail and damaging winds on Tuesday night. The showers and
storms will continue into Wednesday as the cold front meanders
slowly across the western Great Lakes. Things should generally quiet
down for the rest of the long term period, as we will be in a bit
more stable westerly flow. Still we could see some periodic
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures
throughout the week should generally range from the 70s to lower
80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Showers and storms will be in the vicinity of BRD and HYR early in
the forecast. Mainly VFR ceilings are expected, with MVFR vsbys
near the storms. DLH may also be affected, but confidence is
lower. Regardless, have a VCTS at DLH starting at 21Z. Elsewhere,
VFR is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  80  53  63 /  30  10  30  40
INL  52  76  51  72 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  55  82  59  78 /  10  10  50  40
HYR  58  84  61  79 /  80  20  50  40
ASX  55  81  52  69 /  60  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-121200-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A round of strong to severe storms barreled through east-central
Minnesota through parts of northwest Wisconsin this morning,
bringing strong to severe winds to those areas. More thunderstorms
are possible across northwest Wisconsin and parts of central into
northeast Minnesota through tonight. Some of the storms from
east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin could be strong to
severe this afternoon and evening. The main threats from the the
storms will be large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain. The heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible for Monday,
especially for southern portions of the Northland. Some storms
could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the
main threats.

Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday across much
of the Northland. Strong to severe storms will be possible in
north- central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large
hail and damaging winds expected from the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LSZ121-140>148-121200-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few rounds of thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
across western Lake Superior, especially along the south shore. A
few storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible across western Lake Superior Tuesday
night into Wednesday. These storms are not expected to be severe.

Increasing easterly winds Monday night through Wednesday will
lead to building waves across western Lake Superior, which will
result in hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed.

G2

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

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