Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This afternoon we are watching the cumulus field over northern
Minnesota very carefully, as the airmass is increasingly unstable
with deep layer shear values approaching 40 knots. We have had
some echoes over Koochiching and Itasca county as some updrafts
have tried to get going, but these have not lasted long and it
seems we may need to wait until the colder temperatures associated
with the potent upper low over southern Manitoba moves a little
closer in the next few hours. Am expecting an active evening over
the forecast area once storms can initiate though, with CAPE
values now approaching 1500j/kg, and only forecast to continue to
increase into the evening hours. Expect initiation sometime in the
next 1-3 hours and our main threat to be large hail and damaging
winds. After the storms move through this evening a cooler and
drier airmass will move in, and expect temperatures to fall into
the 50s nearly everywhere. This cooler airmass will keep us cooler
for Sunday with some lingering showers during the afternoon hours.
Highs on Sunday will only get into the low to mid 70s, with cooler
conditions near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The early part of the extended period will be affected by another
round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. A cold front
will move through the region as a shortwave moves through southern
canada Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Ahead of
the front as indicated by the previous shift, a strong push into
the forecast area of high theta-e values along with an increase in
PWATs. Showers and strong thunderstorms will spread west to east
Tuesday with possible severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
SPC has all of the forecast area in a 15% chance for severe
weather on Tuesday.

After the front passes, high pressure will build into the region
on Wednesday and keep the area rain free through the weekend. The
only chance for any precipitation will be late Sunday as a
shortwave moves through the region. High temperatures will be
near their normals levels in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with
60s along Lake Superior.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The first area of concern is an area of stratus is affecting the
HIB and DLH airports with IFR-LIFR conditions. These clouds are
moving east and conditions should improve to VFR by 20z. The
second concern is development of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The strongest storms should develop further east than
Friday and will be mainly east of a line from INL to AIT. MVFR-IFR
conditions will affect the INL/HIB/DLH/HYR airports after 22z
through 02z this evening. The BRD airport may stay precip free.
Overnight...conditions will be VFR-MVFR in morning fog with VFR
conditions at all airports on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  69  51  75 /  40  20   0   0
INL  55  76  53  80 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  59  75  54  78 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  57  70  51  77 /  40  10   0   0
ASX  55  67  50  76 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-231145-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northland this
afternoon and evening, as an upper level system moves across the
region. Locations most likely to get severe storms are along and
east of a line from International Falls through Hinckley. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Some of the storms may be strong to severe,
especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotters may be needed this afternoon or evening

LSZ121-140>148-231145-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms over western Lake Superior late
this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be strong to
severe with large hail, gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-water
lightning, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few thunderstorms may linger into Sunday morning. Occasional
cloud-to-water lightning and brief gusty winds are the main
threats.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Some of the storms may be strong or severe,
especially Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Stewart/LE

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
417 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

MNZ011-222130-
North St. Louis-
417 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS
COUNTY...

At 417 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Buyck, or 17 miles
north of Lake Vermilion, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph, pea-size hail, and occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Voyageurs National Park, Crane Lake, Buyck, Echo Lake, Sand Point
Lake, Loon Lake, Trout Lake, and Lac la Croix.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes.

If you are on or near one of the many area lakes, get off the water
immediately and seek shelter on shore inside a sturdy building or a
hard-topped vehicle. If possible, stay away from trees.

LAT...LON 4837 9248 4835 9247 4831 9244 4829 9241
      4822 9237 4825 9227 4829 9230 4832 9231
      4834 9229 4836 9226 4835 9220 4798 9222
      4803 9270 4839 9271 4841 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 275DEG 24KT 4812 9253

LE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

MNZ012-222145-
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY...

At 419 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Gunflint Lake, moving
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph, half-inch hail, and occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gunflint Lake, Sea Gull Lake, Poplar Lake, Daniels Lake, North Lake,
Long Island Lake, Bearskin Lake, Brule Lake, and Clearwater Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes.

If you are on or near one of the many area lakes, get off the water
immediately and seek shelter on shore inside a sturdy building or a
hard-topped vehicle. If possible, stay away from trees.

LAT...LON 4816 9078 4815 9078 4814 9080 4809 9075
      4810 9064 4813 9058 4812 9056 4810 9057
      4809 9055 4811 9046 4810 9044 4810 9040
      4809 9037 4792 9040 4791 9041 4799 9093
      4817 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 275DEG 23KT 4808 9081

LE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
433 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

MNZ011-222200-
North St. Louis-
433 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY...

At 433 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Buyck, or 13 miles
north of Lake Vermilion, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph, dime-size hail, and occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buyck, Trout Lake, Cummings Lake, and Big Moose Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes.

If you are on or near one of the many area lakes, get off the water
immediately and seek shelter on shore inside a sturdy building or a
hard-topped vehicle. If possible, stay away from trees.

LAT...LON 4799 9256 4817 9255 4820 9202 4793 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 272DEG 22KT 4809 9245

LE

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