Beach Hazards Statement 16, NWS Duluth, MN

215 
WHUS43 KDLH 250102
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
802 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

MNZ037-WIZ001-250215-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0016.000000T0000Z-170825T0100Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
802 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Mid- to upper-level ridging will build over the Northland today,
bringing abundant sunshine and dry conditions. Sfc high pressure is
progged to develop over western Ontario today, causing winds to
become more easterly. Temperatures will once again be on the cooler
side of climatology, with highs in the lower 60s over the Minnesota
Arrowhead region, to the upper 60s further inland.

Later this evening and overnight: a slow moving push of 850-700 mb
layer warm air advection (WAA) will bring increasing clouds from the
southwest, as well as some small chances of rain showers over the
Brainerd Lakes area southeast towards Hinckley and Pine City. Some
patchy fog will be possible too, with lows dipping into the upper
30s/lower 40s north and east, to the upper 40s and lower 50s
southwest. Chances of showers should remain on the low side during
the day, but will persist as the WAA builds into the region. Chances
of thunderstorms will also increase as instability goes up, with
MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg possible per the 24.00z NAM and GFS
models. Chances of showers and thunderstorms only increase further
into the evening hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Several shortwaves will push a shortwave ridge over the region
Friday evening to the east and causing it to deamplify. Continued
moisture advection will cause PWAT values to rise to around 1.5
inches on Saturday. A stronger shortwave will move in
Saturday/Saturday night carving out an upper trough over the region
and causing a surface low to develop and track across the western
Great Lakes region through the weekend. There are differences in the
track and timing of the low but the overall differences will not
have a big impact on the expected weather. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Sunday night,
with chances diminishing Sunday afternoon/evening from west to east.
The expected rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures below
normal through the weekend with highs in the sixties for most areas.
Off lake winds are also expected through the weekend.

Most areas will be dry Monday with the exception of our far
southeast zones. A western CONUS ridge will aid in keeping the
region dry or only low chances for showers Tuesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will warm into the upper sixties to mid seventies
Monday with lower to mid seventies continuing into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

High pressure had nosed into northern Minnesota overnight clearing
skies for most areas and causing winds to become light. Fog has
formed in spots with LIFR/IFR conditions. The fog/stratus will
lift for most areas between 13Z-14Z then expect VFR conditions
into this evening. More fog will be possible tonight and we added
to some of the TAFs but adjustments will need to be made as we
progress through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  48  65  53 /   0  10  10  40
INL  68  40  71  51 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  69  54  67  56 /   0  20  20  60
HYR  69  45  67  54 /   0  10  10  40
ASX  67  41  68  51 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-250730-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
407 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog, some dense, will lift for most areas between 8 am
and 9 am.

Northeasterly winds will increase through the day increasing the
potential for Rip Currents near the Duluth entry affecting the
Park Point Beach in Duluth.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few thunderstorms will be possible from the Longville and
Brainerd Lakes region east to the Siren area Friday afternoon.
Severe storms are not expected.

There is a low chance of thunderstorms from central Minnesota
into parts of northwest Wisconsin Friday night into Sunday. The
risk of severe weather looks low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-250730-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
407 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Increasing northeast winds in the Twin Ports area may produce
hazardous conditions for small craft later this afternoon into
the early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Easterly winds will persist and increase Friday and continuing
into Saturday night. Hazardous conditions may develop for small
craft during that time over portions of western Lake Superior.

Thunderstorms will be possible over portions of western Lake
Superior Saturday night and Sunday. The chance for severe storms
looks low at this time.

Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)