Beach Hazards Statement 15, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Rain comes to an end today as the low pressure system centered over
the Twin Cities early this morning lifts northeast towards eastern
Lake Superior tonight. Rain showers will gradually come to an end
from west to east today, with winds becoming out of the north in the
wake of the low. Clearing skies tonight as drier air briefly moves
in, then a chance for diurnally-driven showers and storms for parts
of central/north central Minnesota on Friday afternoon as a mid-
level shortwave trough races across the eastern Dakotas southeast
towards southern Minnesota. Limited instability and weak winds
through the column will lead to just some isolated/scattered short-
lived showers and storms, but certainly not a washout. Cooler today
in the 60s for highs, then lows in the 50s tonight as skies clear
out. Warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Friday night and Saturday a ridge of high pressure should keep the
weather relatively quiet for the area, with temperatures slightly
above normal.

Saturday night and Sunday a weak cold front is progged to drop
through the area from the northwest, accompanied by a weak shortwave
aloft.  Do not expect much out of this boundary either period, but
am carrying some slight to low end chance pops with above normal
temperatures.

Sunday night through Monday night the cold front sags to just south
of the area, and serves as the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development as a shortwave ripples across the area through the broad
troughing aloft.  At this time range am not terribly confident in
the timing of this wave, but models have been rather consistent over
the last few runs and have gone with chance to low end likely pops
for some areas during this time range.  Unless this trend changes,
it is likely to be too cloudy for eclipse watching in the local area.

Tuesday through Thursday appear to be dry for the area with the
upper level trough to our east and northwest flow aloft with a
strong surface ridge building into the area.  Temperatures cool off
to near to below normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Rainfall overnight and into Thursday morning will keep MVFR/IFR
CIGS in place across all terminals. DLH and HYR may dip to LIFR
CIGS for a time later tonight and Thursday morning with bands of
heavier rainfall. Uncertainty still exists with regards to the
threat of TS at HYR, so have kept VCTS in place through daybreak
Thursday to account for this. Rainfall will end from west to east
through the day Thursday and into Thursday evening, however, CIGS
will be slow to improve and a return to VFR conditions may hold
off until the early morning hours on Friday. Not anticipating any
issues with low VSBYS through the period with winds remaining in
the 5-10kt range through much of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  55  76  56 /  90  20  20  10
INL  67  50  77  53 /  80  10  20  10
BRD  68  54  76  54 / 100   0  30  20
HYR  69  56  75  54 /  70  40  20  10
ASX  67  59  76  57 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>143-
     146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144-
     145.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140-148.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-181000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
416 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will continue through this
morning across parts of central to northeast Minnesota which could
lead to minor flooding in some spots. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible through the day across northwest Wisconsin, but these
storms are not expected to be severe.

Strong northeast winds will cause a high risk of rip currents
into tonight, mainly in the Duluth entry affecting the Park Point
Beach in Duluth.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the Northland
Friday and Friday evening. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected Sunday night through Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.
Rainfall amounts from spotters and the public are encouraged.

LSZ121-140>148-181000-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
416 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong and persistent northeast winds are expected to continue to
cause hazardous conditions for small craft today and tonight. Please
refer to the latest marine products for additional details on a
small craft advisory that has been issued for much of western Lake
Superior. Winds will turn more northerly and diminish tonight,
allowing waves to gradually lower. There is also a chance for
thunderstorms over portions of western Lake Superior today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms for western Lake Superior Sunday
through Monday night.

JJM/LE

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)