Beach Hazards Statement 10, NWS Duluth, MN

251 
WHUS43 KDLH 031520 AAA
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

MNZ037-WIZ001-040100-
/O.CON.KDLH.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-170804T0100Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH CONTINUES TO ADVISE THAT
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...PARK POINT BEACHES ON MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN POINTS

* DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
  THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE SUPERIOR
  SHORELINE OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN POINTS DUE TO HIGH WAVE
  ACTION AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. 

* HIGH WAVE ACTION ALONE CAN MAKE SWIMMING DIFFICULT ON DAYS 
  SUCH AS THIS. INCOMING WAVES IN RAPID SUCCESSION CAN TIRE A 
  SWIMMER QUICKLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS IN SANDBARS...
NEAR SHORELINE STRUCTURES SUCH AS PENINSULAS OR BREAKWALLS...AND
NEAR RIVER MOUTHS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SAFETY INFORMATION AND PRECAUTIONS...PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH

&&

$$

256 
WHUS43 KDLH 040107
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
807 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

MNZ037-WIZ001-040215-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-170804T0100Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
807 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS
EXPIRED. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...LARGE 
WAVES...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Updated aviation section below for 06z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

An autumn-like storm system will move through the region
beginning in the short term. Low pressure at the surface and aloft
will move southeastward from the western Canadian Prairies across
the Dakotas and into Minnesota tonight. Rain will spread eastward
from the Dakotas into north-central and central Minnesota by late
this evening and overspread the southern 2/3 of the CWA by late
Thursday morning. With limited instability forecast, opted to keep
the inherited stratiform rain for precipitation types tonight and
Thursday. GFS and GEM Regional seem to be the cooler two
deterministic models and nudged high temperatures for Thursday
toward them. The cooler trend yields a broad area of middle and
upper 50s from near Silver Bay inland to the eastern Iron Range
and areas south, including the Twin Ports, Brainerd, and Hayward.
Winds will be strong for early August tonight and Thursday,
especially inland from Lake Superior and south of US Highway 2.
Wind speeds will increase to 10 to 20 mph in the Brainerd Lakes
early Thursday morning and will increase farther east as the
morning progresses. Have leaned on a blend of the CAMs for winds
along with contributions from the GEM Regional. Paid extra
attention to wind speeds inland from Lake Superior along the South
Shore and from the Twin Ports to Moose Lake. Adjusted winds
higher in these areas to account for lower frictional drag and a
strengthening pressure gradient along the shore. Wouldn't be
surprised if later updates increase the wind speeds further,
especially early Thursday morning through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Thursday evening a trough will lift northeastward from eastern
Minnesota into the central Great Lakes by Friday evening. At the
surface, the attendant low will lift into the central and eastern
Great Lakes. This will bring an end to precipitation across much
of the Northland by Friday evening. Temperatures will rebound due
to northwesterly warm air advection at 850 hPa. Expect highs on
Friday to range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

After this, will see a prolonged period of northwest flow at 500
hPa. This will bring periods of scattered showers and storms from
time to time through the extended as shortwaves move through.
There really are only two periods where more potent systems may
move into the region. The first being late Sunday evening into
Monday. A trough will dig southeastward from central Canada into
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, an area of
low pressure will develop somewhere across the Mississippi River
Valley. Currently think that the CMC/ECMWF and previous GFS have
the right idea which is a broader system developing across the Mid
Mississippi River, and Ohio River Valley. This likely due to the
weaker upper level forcing. The latest GFS is the outlier at the
moment, but worth watching as the system takes a similar track to
the system moving through tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday. The next
potent wave will move in midweek. All current guidance are in
good agreement with a cutoff and trough digging into the Northern
Plains, and Upper Midwest from central Canada. The main
differences at this point are timing with the GFS/ECMWF moving the
trough in Wednesday, while the CMC is a bit slower pushing the
system in by Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal through the
extended with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Low
temperatures through the extended range from the upper 40s to the
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Rain is spreading into the terminals as of issuance time, with
KBRD already in light rain with VFR ceilings. This rain is being
caused by a developing low pressure system over eastern South
Dakota, which will move east over the next 24 hours. Thus, the
rain will continue to spread east, affecting all but KINL between
now and approximately 03z, then ending gradually from west to
east. The rain is expected to bring MVFR ceilings for most
locations, beginning around 09z and continuing through the rest of
the TAF period depending on the location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  57  50  72 /  80 100  70  20
INL  51  70  49  74 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  53  59  49  74 / 100 100  40   0
HYR  52  56  51  71 /  70 100  80  30
ASX  50  59  52  73 /  50 100  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     143>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ148.

&&

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...LE

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong northeast winds will increase the threat of rip currents,
mainly in the Duluth entry affecting the Park Point Beach in
Duluth.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a high risk for rip currents again on Thursday.

There are chances for thunderstorms across the Northland Friday
through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall amounts from SKYWARN spotters and the public are
encouraged.

LSZ121-140>148-031030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Increasing northeast winds will result in building waves across
parts of western Lake Superior tonight, and will create conditions
hazardous to smaller vessels. See the latest Marine Weather
Message for details on a Small Craft Advisory in affect for parts
of western Lake Superior.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Increasing northeast to north winds continue Thursday and
Thursday night with the strongest winds developing Thursday
afternoon. This will result in building waves creating hazardous
conditions for small craft. See the latest Marine Weather Message
for details on a Small Craft Advisory in affect for parts of
western Lake Superior.

There is a chance for thunderstorms over western Lake Superior
Saturday night into Sunday.

Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)