Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

October 6, 2017Kiowa County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this special weather statement at Oct 6, 2017, 8:03 PM CDT for Kiowa County, Kansas. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 6, 2017, 8:03 PM CDT (01:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 6, 2017, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS

County Kiowa County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 965 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1644 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 163 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 6.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 6, 6:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 6:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For details on thunderstorms and severe convective threat see Meso
discussion above. Otherwise, aforementioned front will slide
quickly southeast through Kansas this evening to overnight as the
main upper trough moves into the Great Plains. This will
effectively shut down precipitation chances from west to east
during the late evening to early overnight. The pressure jump
behind this front will trigger a brief period with higher gusts
via an isallobaric wind but otherwise winds will ease gradually
overnight with low temps in the 40s to lower 50s expected. This
will set the stage for a mild and dry Saturday as subsidence
behind the exiting upper wave dominates while surface high
pressure allows winds to turn light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Sunday will be a transition day between upper waves moving across
the region as the next large upper trough digs into the
Intermountain West. This will allow the lee trough to deepen with
associated south to southwest winds bringing mild temps. This
will then set the stage for another active weather day Monday into
early Tuesday as the system mentioned above plows into the Great
Plains. This will push a strong cold front through the region
Monday into Monday night. While threat for severe weather looks
minimal with this event a chance for rain will still exist over
most of the region. Main question behind this front will be
potential for some patchy frost Monday night and possibly again
the next night as a clear sky, light winds, and very dry air
promotes temps in the 30s.

Remainder of the week will then see the pattern repeat yet again
with the wave from Mon/Tue exiting to the east while another system
digs into the Intermountain West. This will result in dry conditions
with temperatures rebounding back above normal Wednesday and
Thursday but then a chance of storms returning by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Numerous discreet severe thunderstorms over the area continue to
develop into a more linear mode of convection early this evening.
The convection will generally continue just ahead of a cold front
through around mid evening before weakening altogether. A severe
wind threat is still possible, most likely near DDC or LBL for a
couple of hours before the event winds down into heavy rain episode.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  77  50  79 /  90   0   0   0
GCK  47  77  47  78 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  47  77  48  79 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  50  78  48  80 /  90   0   0   0
HYS  50  75  49  78 /  90   0   0   0
P28  55  77  51  81 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-079.

&&

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 6, 2:52 PM CDT, 5 hours 11 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 /152 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Conditions continue to favor a risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms starting later this afternoon and continuing into
the evening hours. For locations along and west of highway 183,
the risk will be mostly confined between 4 to 8 pm. These storms
will be capable of producing very large hail with maximum hail
size of at least baseballs highly probable with some potential for
even larger hail. In addition damaging winds up to 70 mph and
even a few tornadoes will exist with these storms. For locations
east of highway 183, the risk will be confined more into the 7 to
11 pm time frame with damaging winds up to 80 mph possible along
with hail up to golf ball size. Very heavy rainfall may result in
some localized flooding for areas along and east of highway 183
during the evening where a wet and saturated soil already exists
from rainfall in the last week.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Monday night and again Tuesday night may see temperatures drop to
near freezing for locations mainly west of highway 283.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 6, 6:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             7 SSE ALEXANDER         38.38N 99.49W
10/06/2017  E1.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED.

&&

RML

Local storm report, Oct 6, 7:09 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
709 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW BURDETT            38.19N 99.54W
10/06/2017  M86 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 86 MPH WIND GUST AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

LCR

Local storm report, Oct 6, 7:15 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             11 SSW PLYMELL          37.66N 100.95W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED.

&&

RML

Local storm report, Oct 6, 7:17 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
717 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     SANFORD                 38.19N 99.31W
10/06/2017  M82 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 82 MPH AT THE SANFORD CO-OP.

&&

LCR

Local storm report, Oct 6, 7:58 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
758 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             12 SSW BEELER           38.29N 100.29W
10/06/2017  E1.50 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

            THERE WAS ALMOST NO WIND WITH THE HAIL.

&&

01

Special weather statement, Oct 6, 8:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
803 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSZ078-080-088-089-070200-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-Ford KS-
803 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD...KIOWA...
NORTHERN COMANCHE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles east of Windhorst to 5 miles north of
Bloom. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Coldwater, Greensburg, Bucklin, Haviland, Mullinville, Ford, Bloom,
Wilmore, Belvidere, Kingsdown, The Joy Elevator and The Brenham
Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3749 10001 3772 9983 3772 9902 3720 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 288DEG 33KT 3780 9957 3756 9992

UMSCHEID

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 6, 7:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kiowa, Ness, Pawnee and 1 more	49 min
Oct 6, 7:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee, Rush	4 hr
Oct 6, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Pawnee, Pratt, Stafford	60 min
Oct 6, 8:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Kiowa, Pratt, Stafford	61 min
Oct 6, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber	19 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.