Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Models remain in good agreement with scattered thunderstorms
redeveloping late this afternoon/early tonight ahead of an upper
level trough that will be crossing western Kansas between 00z and
09z Saturday. CAPE values currently do not look to be as high as
what was forecast yesterday but still given the 0-6km shear and
mid level instability some small hail can not be completely ruled
out late today early tonight. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will also
possible.

As this upper level trough passes the chance for precipitation
will end from northwest to southeast between 06z and 12z Saturday.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and given the net 24 hour temperature
chance at the 850mb level between 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday the
highs on Saturday are expected to be anywhere from 2 to 5F warmer
than today. Highs will be mainly around 90 degrees on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017

The Labor Day warming trend still looks on track with the
guidance finally is beginning to come around to the warmth
expected ahead of a cold front that will drop south into western
Kansas during the day on Monday. Based on the warm in the 900mb to
850mb temperatures each day at 00z ahead of the front the highs
climbing into the mid to upper 90s can be expected on Sunday and
again on Monday. Given the expected location of this frontal
boundary over these two days the warmer temperatures Sunday
afternoon will be across west central and north central Kansas and
then across most of southwest Kansas on Monday.

Some scattered late day convection will be possible on Monday but
the better chances for thunderstorms will be Monday night into
early Tuesday as the next upper level trough crosses the Central
Plains.

As this next upper level trough crosses the Central Plains Monday
night into early Tuesday the cold front will drop south across
Oklahoma into north Texas and a cool dome of high pressure will
start to build into western Kansas. Depending on the cloud cover
Tuesday afternoon the highs could range from the low to upper 70s

Highs will be in the 80s from Wednesday through Friday as the
surface highs crosses the central plains. A gradual warming trend
can be expected late week with highs climbing from the 80 to 85
degree range on Wednesday to the 85 to near 90 degree range by
Friday. The chance for precipitation will also be improving Friday
and Friday night as an upper level trough move out of the Rockies
and into the West Central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017

A few lingering showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm is
expected in the Hays and Dodge City areas for the next hour or
two. Another round for thunderstorms will then be possible at all
TAF sites early tonight as an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas. Based on the latest models and dprog/dt from Satellite it
appears that the best chance for convection ahead of this upper
trough at Hays and Garden City will be from 00z and 05z Saturday.
Liberal and Dodge City will have the better chances for
convection from 03z to 09z Saturday. Model soundings indicating
ceilings may briefly fall into the 3000 to 6000ft AGL level with
these thunderstorms. Outside these storms ceilings will be at or
above 12000ft AGL. Southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 knots will
shift to the northeast as these storms pass early tonight. The
northeasterly winds will then gradually veer back to the southeast
early Saturday as surface pressures begin to fall along the lee
of the Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  89  63  94 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  58  91  61  93 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  62  90  61  91 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  62  91  62  92 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  59  89  63  95 /  40   0   0   0
P28  63  88  65  93 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
108 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
108 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 /1208 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop late
today and early this evening, mainly west of a Dighton to Liberal
line. The main hazards this evening will be wind gusts of 50 to
60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A cold front passage is expected Monday night and Tuesday morning,
during which some showers and thunderstorms are possible across
mainly the eastern counties. Significant rainfall and severe
weather are both unlikely.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be required after 4 pm west of a
Dighton to Liberal line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
826 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

KSZ074-075-084-085-020230-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
826 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON...NORTHEASTERN
MORTON...SOUTHERN KEARNY...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN
STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Big Bow, or 14 miles northeast of Johnson City, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Johnson City, Big Bow, Hickok and The Milepost Elevator.

LAT...LON 3766 10193 3774 10176 3774 10141 3756 10114
      3729 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 314DEG 19KT 3772 10158

HOVORKA