Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Very moist atmosphere across SW KS as of midday, with dewpoints
running well into the 60s to near 70, and precipitable water over
1.5 inch. 12z NAM maintains 65-70 dewpoints into this evening, and
increases PW further to near 1.9 inch. Very weak pressure gradient
this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary continues to meander
across the region. Instability will continue to mount through the
afternoon, with NAM increasing CAPE to near 2000 J/kg with lifted
index of -5C. Flow at all levels is weak (NAM forecast at 500 mb
this evening is 1 kt at Dodge City). With such a moist airmass
and such weak flow, scattered slow-moving thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight will be capable of very heavy (locally
flooding) rainfall. Model consensus is the most likely area to see
this activity will be the western 1/2 of the CWA into tonight.
All models capture a vorticity max drifting around the CO/KS
border into this evening. 12z NAM/GFS both suggest lift from this
feature will incite convective initiation across the western zones
after 4 pm. Further, 12z NAM depicts a slow-moving MCS that
drifts into SW KS overnight. Increased pops some to 50% for these
western areas, but may increase again to likely. Also, included
heavy rain wording in the grids. The risk of severe hail/wind is
very low, with such weak flow and saturated profiles. Strong pulse
convection along the old frontal boundary may produce wind gusts
near 55 mph before sunset, mainly along the OK/KS border, as the
latest HRRR iterations are starting to suggest. Areas of showers
likely to continue all night with thick cloud cover, keeping
temperatures in the 68-72 range through sunrise Saturday.

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours during peak
heating. All models show persistent compact vorticity max
wallowing around the western zones through Saturday, as well as
the remnant frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity, offering a
source of surface convergence. Atmospheric profiles of wind and
moisture change little from Friday, with more slow-moving heavy
rain producing storms expected. ECMWF in particular depicts an
impressive MCS across the western zones Saturday afternoon/night
with the potential for very heavy/flooding rainfall. Will need to
monitor for the exact location of this MCS evolution over the next
24 hours. Clouds, moisture and convection will hold temperatures a
bit below mid-July normals on Saturday, in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Sunday...Chance pops/scattered coverage of thunderstorms still
warranted, as atmosphere remains nearly steady-state with a moist
boundary layer and weak flow throughout. Spurious vorticity max,
or weakness embedded in the upper ridge aloft, will continue to
meander over/near the western zones through Sunday. For such a
small feature, models are showing amazing agreement with this
disturbance. Scattered thunderstorms will favor the western/SW
zones Sunday afternoon and evening, with again locally heavy
rainfall and minimal severe threat expected. With the high
pressure ridge weakened aloft, temperatures will continue to trend
a few degrees below normal, in the upper 80s to near 90.

Starting Monday, hot upper anticyclone begins to consolidate over
the central plains, putting the kibosh on rain chances and
sending temperatures upwards. Dry weather will prevail Monday
through Thursday as subsidence dominates. After coordinating with
neighbors, removed the spurious pops offered by GFS/superblend
during the Tuesday timeframe, but kept 14% in case something can
get through the western periphery of the ridge.

Starting next Friday, 12z ECMWF shows an interesting potential
evolution, with the upper high splitting into two centers, one
over the eastern Pacific, and the other near Florida. The weakness
between the two highs may allow for a pathway for Mexican
monsoonal moisture to makes its way toward Kansas. After a dry
spell for much of next week, rain chances likely to ramp up again
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will impact the Liberal terminal at the
beginning of this period and will gradually shift northward toward
Garden City and Dodge City through the evening hours. Visibility
reductions due to heavy rain along with gusty winds to 30-35
knots will be the main impacts. At this time, do not anticipate
the storms making it as far north as Hays but this will have to be
watched. Convection will diminish later tonight with VFR
conditions prevailing into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  89  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
GCK  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
EHA  61  89  61  87 /  30  40  50  30
LBL  68  90  67  88 /  30  40  50  30
HYS  68  88  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  92 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
313 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
313 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 /213 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of southwest and central Kansas late this afternoon and
evening. However, the threat for severe weather is low. However,
the potential for brief heavy rainfall exists which could result
in flooding of low lying areas and ponding on roadways.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible across southwest and portions of
south central Kansas Saturday and Sunday. However, the potential
for severe weather is low.

Hotter temperatures are expected by the middle part of next week
with highs potentially reaching near the century mark.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

KSZ085-086-142345-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
544 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Liberal, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal and Woods.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 10113 3717 10079 3700 10087 3700 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 189DEG 8KT 3705 10096

GERARD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

KSZ074-075-150045-
Stanton KS-Grant KS-
656 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT AND EASTERN STANTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Ulysses, moving north at 15 mph. Other strong storms
were to the southwest and northwest of Ulysses, also moving north at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Big Bow, Hickok and The Milepost Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10130 3740 10155 3773 10157 3766 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 196DEG 13KT 3743 10142

GERARD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
730 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

KSZ076-086-087-150115-
Seward KS-Meade KS-Haskell KS-
730 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Kismet, or 4 miles west of Plains, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plains, Kismet, Missler and The Hobart Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10062 3727 10081 3751 10072 3733 10034
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 210DEG 15KT 3727 10068

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW ULYSSES            37.60N 101.38W
07/14/2017  M54 MPH          GRANT              KS   AWOS

            THE WIND WAS MEASURED AT THE ULYSSES
            AIRPORT.

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
749 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

KSZ062-075-076-150130-
Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
749 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, emergency management reported a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Hickok, or 5 miles northeast of Ulysses, moving
north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses and Hickok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10119 3758 10140 3785 10136 3772 10105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 202DEG 13KT 3762 10127

GERARD