Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Warm front has lifted a bit further north into west central Kansas,
as noted in the weak reflectivity extending from near Syracuse-
Garden-Dodge and through Greensburg into south central Kansas. Based
on the convective allowing models interpretations, the more
scattered to numerous severe convective storms this evening should
be primarily confined to the warm front region and warm sector,
across south central Kansas counties and into western Oklahoma. The
severe parameters are supportive of an enhanced convective wind
threat and marginal threat for large hail. Tornado risk is
negligible short of a brief spinup. HRRR continues to show a
secondary broken line of storms moving into western Kansas from in
the later evening hours, but has become somewhat an outlier of the
numerical models.

No significant change in overnight temperatures, again mild in the
60. Tuesday may be somewhat influenced by leftover widespread
outflow across the area, light and variable winds and no obviously
discernible convergence zone for lift.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Thunderstorm opportunities Tuesday night are likely relegated to the
extreme west, based on higher terrain upslope surface flow
convection to move into west central KS. Similar overnight
temperatures in the mid 60s are forecast for the overnight and
Wednesday morning. ECMWF develops a large ridge across the
intermountain west which persists through the end of the forecast
period, which is not a conducive setup for widespread severe. Highs
are likely to remain in the 90s with lows in the mid and upper 60s
through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A cluster of thunderstorms will continue south and southeast of
Dodge City early this evening. Radar and surface observations at
23z indicating multiple outflow boundaries from these storms in
the Liberal and Dodge City area so winds at these locations are
expected to be variable but primarily from the east at around 15
knots for the next few hours. As these storms move into Oklahoma
early tonight winds across western Kansas will become south
southeast at 10 to 15 knots. The RAP and NAM this evening both
suggesting some low status/fog possible between 09z and 15z
Tuesday at Dodge, Garden, and possibly even Liberal. Based on
model soundings this moist layer appears shallow so am leaning
towards mainly MVFR visibilities in fog. Otherwise VFR conditions
can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  90  66  92 /  50  10  20  10
GCK  62  92  64  94 /  30  10  20  10
EHA  62  94  64  94 /  30  10  20  10
LBL  65  94  66  94 /  30  10  20  10
HYS  65  88  66  91 /  40  10  20  10
P28  67  89  67  91 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

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