Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Convective chances exist very late this afternoon beginning in the
extreme southwest counties, and spreading slowly eastward through he
evening. Moderate instability/CAPE will be present with around 30
knots of bulk shear across western Kansas; an environment which the
HRRR drives current ongoing convection across the Sangre de Cristos
into by this evening. Given the limited instability and shear,
widespread high impact severe weather is not expected; LHP parameter
is only indicating around 4 to 5, on the low end of the 1.5 inch
hail spectrum, and storm may be too closely clustered as well.
Probably more commonly small hail and gusty winds with this event.
However the set up by Wednesday may be better suited for severe
weather reports (higher CAPE) especially if convection develops
earlier in the day across a stationary frontal boundary draped
from northwest though central Kansas.

A mild overnight with temperatures only falling to the upper 50s,
and the models are averaging about 5 degrees warmer than MOS. This
will be a jump start to warmer highs as well on Wednesday, as highs
climb into the mid and possibly upper 80s south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

No significant chances to the extended period.  Continuing with
near climatological weather, with highs in the 80s. Better
opportunity for more organized convection will be next week as a
western Plains ridge breaks down and  low pressure develops across
the northern rockies and Central Plains (ECMWF/GFS).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Recent mosaic radar trends shows only
isolated tsra across NW Kansas. Activity is fairly weak and is not
moving very fast. Chance of impacting the terminals is on the low side.
Winds will be light/variable tonight to a light southerly wind increasing
10-15 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  85  61  85 /  20  40  30  10
GCK  55  86  59  85 /  20  40  30  10
EHA  55  85  58  83 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  57  86  60  84 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  55  83  61  86 /  20  40  30  10
P28  60  87  63  86 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-310745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
241 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017 /141 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible across central
and far western Kansas late this afternoon into the evening hours.
These storms do not look to be severe at this time.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A slight chance of storms will be possible each day. As of now
these storms do not look to be severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

KSZ074-084-310130-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Richfield, or 20 miles north of Elkhart, moving east at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla and Richfield.

LAT...LON 3744 10204 3742 10186 3738 10156 3709 10156
      3725 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 287DEG 18KT 3729 10194

Reynolds

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