Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Dodge City, KS

170 
WWUS53 KDDC 160336
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1036 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSC145-165-160346-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170416T0400Z/
Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
1036 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 9915 3845 9924 3852 9903 3827 9903
      3826 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 255DEG 18KT 3839 9887 

$$

RUSSELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Surface analysis showed a weak cold front draped northeast to
southwest across the area from near Hays to just west of Dodge
City to a weak low pressure center near Guymon this afternoon. A
dryline extended from the front just east of Liberal into the
Texas Panhandle. Ahead of the front, mid to upper 50s dewpoints
were advecting into central and parts of southwest Kansas.
Northwest of the front, weak upslope flow was pushing mid 40s to
low 50s dewpoints back into far western Kansas and eastern Colorado.
The atmosphere continues to destabilize across central and parts
of southwest Kansas where mid level lapse rates are aoa 8C/km.

Still looking at the potential for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon, mainly along and
east of the front and dryline. The main threats still appear to be
large hail on the order of golfball to baseball in the strongest
storms. There also continues to be a small tornado threat which
will mainly be focused in the area where the frontal boundary and
dryline intersects. The timing for the greatest severe threat
appears to be from around 5-9pm before storms move east of the
Highway 281 corridor. Also of concern is the potential for a few
storms to develop over eastern Colorado and move into far western
Kansas, apparently due to upslope flow into the higher terrain. A
little less confident this will occur but some mesoscale models
have been trending in this direction. Visible satellite imagery
shows a cumulus field situated along Highway 96 over eastern
Colorado so this will have to be watched.

The cold front surges southward later this evening and tonight.
Models show some postfrontal shower and thunderstorm activity
developing late tonight mainly along and north of the Oklahoma
border into central Kansas which will linger into Sunday morning
before slowly diminishing or moving east.

Temperature-wise...no big changes to the forecast tonight. With
considerable cloudiness and easterly winds, the going temperature
forecast looked a little warm. Leaned toward the coolest MOS
guidance around 60-65 but even this may be too warm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

A somewhat active week is ahead for western Kansas. A cool airmass
remains over western Kansas along with stratus and fog early
Monday. We will see a lingering chance for showers during the day.
Depending on how long the clouds hold, temperatures may not get
out of the 60s. A warm front will lift back north of the area on
Tuesday with warmer temperatures expected. A shortwave trough
moves out over the northern and central Plains on Wednesday which
will push another cold front, along with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, south across western Kansas. This will be ahead of
a stronger upper level system that both the GFS and ECMWF show
dropping southeast across the Intermountain West and into the
central Plains late in the week. A good chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible if this model solution holds. Much
cooler temperatures will also be possible with highs mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening.
However, low level stratus is expected to develop along and behind a
frontal boundary late tonight as it moves southward into Oklahoma.
MVFR cigs will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF sites generally
after 09Z. Northeast winds 5 to 15kt will develop through late this
evening as the cold front moves through the remainder of southwest
and south central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  61  51  72 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  49  63  50  72 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  49  61  49  75 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  52  62  52  74 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  49  66  49  71 /  20  20  10  10
P28  55  64  55  73 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
337 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
337 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017 /237 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
southeast zones this afternoon and evening, mainly southeast of
a Meade-Dodge City-Larned line. Storms that develop in this area
will have the potential to produce large hail, up to 2 inches in
diameter in the strongest storms. An isolated tornado is possible
this afternoon and early evening, south and east of Dodge City,
near the Oklahoma border.

Additional elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. The risk for severe weather is low tonight, but hail is
still a possibility with the strongest activity.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion

Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, which will reduce the
threat of severe weather. A few strong storms will remain possible
across the far SE zones (near Barber county). Thunderstorms will
remain possible Monday, before dry weather returns Tuesday.
Thunderstorms will be limited to the NE zones Wednesday. A strong
storm system is expected to spread rain and thunderstorms into
SW Kansas Thursday night through Friday night, with significant
rainfall possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - No Hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required southeast of a Meade-
Dodge City-Larned line this afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
901 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             3 NE UTICA              38.67N 100.13W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
04/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
914 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             2 NW BUTTERMILK         37.12N 99.34W
04/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
920 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     HAIL             2 NE ARNOLD             38.65N 100.02W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
937 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             3 NE GARFIELD           38.10N 99.20W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSZ065-160400-
Pawnee KS-
1000 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frizell, or 5 miles southwest of Larned. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Larned, Garfield, Sanford, Frizell and Fort Larned Historic Site.

LAT...LON 3822 9899 3813 9898 3806 9934 3817 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 180DEG 0KT 3815 9919

RUSSELL