Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Dodge City, KS

370 
WWUS53 KDDC 272110
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

KSC057-083-272118-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0308.000000T0000Z-170827T2145Z/
Ford KS-Hodgeman KS-
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning is no longer
threatening the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been
cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3814 10062 3819 10044 3815 10024 3777 10023
      3774 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 013DEG 16KT 3808 10042 

$$

KSC055-069-272145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0308.000000T0000Z-170827T2145Z/
Finney KS-Gray KS-
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN FINNEY AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES...

At 408 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Kalvesta, or 18 miles north of Cimarron. Several other storms were 
also in the vicinity and could produce severe weather. These storms
were moving south at 20 mph

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Pierceville, Ingalls, Charleston, Kalvesta and Concannon
State Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 10062 3819 10044 3815 10024 3777 10023
      3774 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 013DEG 16KT 3808 10042 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Precip chances this evening will be reliant on how quickly
conditions can recover in wake of the outflow passage from this
morning's convection. Short range models continue to show a weak
frontal boundary attendant to the upper level shortwave trough in
the Upper Midwest, moving southward across southwest and south
central Kansas early this evening. Albeit delayed due to extended
recovery time, thunderstorms are still expected to trigger in an
axis of increased forcing in the vicinity of the front as it
pushes slowly southward across the area. Although possibly further
south due to timing, the best chance for thunderstorms will be
across south central Kansas and into southern portions of southwest
Kansas. Surface dewpoints in the 60s(F) and steepening low/mid
level lapse rates will lead to MLCAPE values upward of 1500 to
2000 J/kg ahead of the boundary. Although the flow aloft will
remain fairly weak, sufficient instability combined with a
reasonable amount of shear will increase the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms into the early evening time period. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing quarter to golf
ball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Somewhat cooler air will filter southward into western Kansas
behind the boundary tonight dropping lows well down into the
60s(F) across the area. A few upper 50s(F) will be possible in
west central Kansas and in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor in
central Kansas. Expect highs only up into the 80s(F) Monday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

A generally dry pattern is expected across much of western Kansas
through the middle part of the week as medium range models show
upper level ridging building across the Great Basin and the Four
Corners Region during the period. Drier air filtering into the high
plains and a weak northerly flow aloft will limit precip chances
across the region through at least Thursday. As for temperatures,
little change is expected to the air mass settling in across the
high plains through much of the period. Look for highs generally in
the 80s(F) to near 90F each day through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late
this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a weak frontal
boundary as it moves southward across south central and eastern
portions of soutwest Kansas...potentially affecting KDDC, KLBL,
and to a lesser degree KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
at all TAF sites through early Monday morning. Light southeasterly
winds this afternoon will turn northeasterly 10 to 20kt this evening
as the aforementioned front moves southward into northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  62  85  58 /  40  20   0   0
GCK  90  59  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  91  60  82  59 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  90  62  85  59 /  30  30   0   0
HYS  86  58  85  57 /  40   0   0   0
P28  90  63  85  59 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
356 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-280900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
356 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 /256 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A cluster of thunderstorms will move from central Nebraska into
northern Kansas early this morning and will weaken in eastern
Kansas by late morning. A cold front near the Kansas/Nebraska
border will move across western Kansas into northern Oklahoma by
late evening. Thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon near the
outflow boundary and cold front. Hail up to the size of golfballs and
winds gusting to near 70 mph can be expected with the more intense
thunderstorms.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 300 PM from Kinsley to
Stafford and after 400 PM southeast of a line from Pratt to
Sublette.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

KSZ063-077-272130-
Gray KS-Finney KS-
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY AND GRAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Kalvesta, or 20 miles south of Dighton, moving
south at 35 mph. A second strong storm was located 8 miles west
southwest of Kalvesta.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Montezuma, Ingalls, Copeland, Ensign, Charleston, Kalvesta,
The Haggard Elevator, Finney State Lake and Concannon State Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 10057 3825 10025 3753 10023 3754 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 352DEG 32KT 3820 10037

UMSCHEID