Hard Freeze Warning 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

Clark County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

An upper level trough, located along the coast of British
Columbia earlier this morning, will cross the Pacific northwest
and move into the Northern Rockies tonight. As this upper level
trough approaches from the northwest...an area of low pressure
will develop along the lee of the Rockies today as the
northwesterly flow aloft backs more to the west. The latest NAM
and GFS forecast indicates the 24 hour change in 850mb
temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday will be around 10
degrees which supports the previous forecast with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees late this
afternoon across western and central Kansas.

Tonight the west winds will continue to back more to the south as
the trough of low pressure over Colorado moves slowly east into
far western Kansas . A strong cold front will drop south into
northern Kansas by early Thursday morning. Given the stronger
winds overnight and the warm temperatures forecast in the boundary
layer ahead of the approaching cold front the lows tonight will
not be as cool as the past several nights. Lows will be mainly in
the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

On Thursday the strong cold front will cross western Kansas early
in the day as the upper level trough exits the northern Rockies
and approaches western Kansas. Models continue to advertise 35 to
45 knot winds in the 900mb to 850mb layer behind this cold front
along with a tight surface pressure gradient and good cold air
advection. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts of around 45
mph will be possible during the day and early evening across
western Kansas. In addition to these strong winds it appears the
highs on Thursday may be early in the day (between 18z and 21z)
and after 21z temperatures will begin to fall. Based on 18z and
21z temperature profiles the highs are expected to be in the 65 to
70 degree range before temperatures start to fall. The potential
then exists that temperatures could fall back as far as the upper
40s to lower 50s across west central and north central Kansas by
00z Friday.

The gusty north winds will begin to subside Thursday night after
midnight as a surface high builds into eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas. Given the decreasing winds after midnight and
clear skies expected early Friday morning the lows Thursday
night/Friday morning should easily fall below freezing for most of
western Kansas and north central Kansas. temperatures falling
back into the mid 20s west of highway 83 also looking possible.
With these temperatures expected will go ahead and issue a Freeze
and Hard Freeze Watch for areas northwest of a Larned to Meade
line.

Friday will be sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs Friday afternoon
will be mainly in the mid 40s with some upper 40s possible in
south central Kansas based on the 900mb to 850mb temperatures at
00z Saturday.

Another cold night can be expected across western and central
Kansas Friday night as the surface high continue to track south
southeast. Lows in the low to mid 20s still looks on track
Saturday morning and depending on where the center of this surface
high ends up around 12z Saturday some lows near 15 degrees will
also be possible across portions of western Kansas.

A gradual, brief, warming trend will then begin across western
Kansas late this weekend as the upper ridge axis that was located
near the west coast weakens as it moves east and the backing flow
across the central Rockies late this weekend begins to slowly
erode some of this cold air in western Kansas. Highs over the
weekend will climb from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday to
the low to mid 60s on Sunday.

This warm up will be brief given that another cold front will
take aim at western Kansas early next week. At this time the
timing of the next frontal passage is still somewhat unclear so
highs on Monday are not clear cut. Ahead of the cold front the
highs will once again climb back into the 60s while behind this
cold front the highs will be up to 10 degrees cooler. Given the
uncertainty will stay close to persistence and the latest guidance
and hold off with the frontal passage until late day.

Precipitation chances with either of the cold fronts still appear
very limited, if at all. Mainly mid level forcing and moisture
will be present behind the first cold front Thursday night which
will primarily result in increasing clouds. Still given the
forcing ahead of the upper wave Thursday night could not
completely rule out some very light precipitation (rain or snow)
across far western Kansas early Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Westerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through late morning as a lee side trough of low pressure
slowly strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will then turn
southwesterly 10 to 20kt this afternoon as the lee side trough
continues to strengthen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  46  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  43  65  28 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  79  47  65  29 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  80  44  68  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  79  46  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  79  47  71  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-074>080-084>088.

Hard Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
morning for KSZ043-044-061>063.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
315 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 /215 AM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected this afternoon
as gusty northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph develop and relative
humidity values fall back into the 15 to 20 percent range.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Freeze: Elevated risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A strong cold front will cross western Kansas on Thursday. Gusty
northwest winds at 25 to 35 mph will be possible behind this cold
front Thursday afternoon.

A Freeze and Hard Freeze Watch is in effect from late Thursday
night through early Friday morning as much colder air settles into
western Kansas. Please refer to the latest Freeze Watch products
for more details.

Saturday morning lows across western Kansas are expected to be
mainly in the 20 to 25 degree range. Temperatures may fall back
into the teens in several locations west of a Garden City to
Liberal line.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk
  - Freeze: Extreme risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Freeze: Extreme risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Freeze: Extreme risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Freeze: Significant risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Freeze: Significant risk

* Tuesday
  - Freeze: Significant risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo