Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Cheyenne, WY

792 
WWUS85 KCYS 052335
RFWCYS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON
COUNTY...

WYZ303-060045-
/O.CAN.KCYS.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170806T0000Z/
Central and Northern Carbon/Ferris-Seminoe-Shirley Mountains-
535 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 303...

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. 

Relative humidity will continue to increase through the evening.
The critical fire weather threat has ended.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
616 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Skies currently clear across
the region with just a few cumulus clouds popping up in the deeply
mixed boundary layer to the west of the Laramie Range.  Look for a
few isolated storms to build up late this afternoon or early evening
over the Laramie Range but coverage should not be too widespread.
Guidance still indicates that storms may be able to maintain
themselves into the overnight hours as lift from a mid level wave
passing to the north may aid in providing lift above the cooling
boundary layer.  Should any sustained updrafts develop, deep layer
shear of 40 to 50 kt along with steep mid level lapse rates could
allow for some large hail in the strongest storms.

Surface winds shift to northerly on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough
sets up from northern CO into the NE panhandle.  Convection appears
to be most likely along this trough over the southern Panhandle and
along the actual cold front pressing south into Converse and
Niobrara Counties late in the day.  Models indicate showers and
storms increasing in coverage through the overnight hours on
Saturday night as low level convergence/frontogenesis in the
presence of steep mid level lapse rates are in place over the plains
along a slow moving front. NAM is putting out some hefty rainfall
totals however think models may be overdoing the coverage an
intensity of the convection so tempered POP and QPF a bit.

Sunday looks to be much cooler and cloudy.  Continued chances of
showers and thunderstorms with the surface front nearby and weak
ripples of mid level energy passing overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

The models are starting to focus on the potential for some
moderate rainfall on Sunday night into Monday morning for
portions of southeast Wyoming mainly south of a Torrington to
Alliance line. This area will be under the right entrance region
of the upper level jet along with a strong shortwave moves through
the northern Plains. Ensembles are even keying in on precipitable
water values creeping to around 1 inch which is slightly above
normal for this time of year. Along with this rainfall will come
some more cool temperatures with afternoon highs on Monday only
climbing to the mid 60s to lower 70s. These temperatures will be
slow to recover on Tuesday and Wednesday as the northwest flow
regime persist. More chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated on these days as well as the low
level moisture/instability continues to linger. The ECMWF, GEM
does try to flatten the upper level flow somewhat next week, which
would provide slightly warmer temperatures. Either way this
pattern looks fairly wet for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 608 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Mainly vfr conditions through the taf period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at most sites through the evening.
There will be enough low level moisture for brief mvfr vis/cigs
around in the hours around sunrise at BFF and AIA. Some sites will
see winds gusting to 20-25 kts through around 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Critical fire weather conditions currently at
Saratoga, Rawlins, and Laramie early this afternoon and thus the Red
Flag Warning continues and was expanded into zone 308.  Guidance
indicates that elevated to critical conditions may again develop
Saturday afternoon especially over western Carbon County. Winds may
not be quite as strong Saturday so conditions will likely not be
quite as widespread.  However, enough confidence to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon.  Sunday through early next
week looks to bring cooler temperatures with increasing moisture so
not expecting any concerns after Saturday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ303-304-306-
     308.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for WYZ303-304-306.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEL
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...DEL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
634 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

WYZ101>119-051245-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
634 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly east of
Interstate 25. Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A more active weather pattern is anticipated this weekend through
the middle of next week as a cold front stalls across the area.
Thunderstorms will be possible each day Saturday through
Thursday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required at this time.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-051245-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-
634 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by this evening across
western Nebraska. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong
with small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A more active weather pattern is anticipated this weekend through
the middle of next week. Thunderstorms will be possible each day
Saturday through Thursday, especially across the southern
panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1125 PM MDT FRI AUG 4 2017

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ102-108-050615-
Box Butte NE-Dawes NE-North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-Goshen County WY-
Niobrara County WY-
1125 PM MDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE...
SOUTHWESTERN DAWES...CENTRAL SIOUX...SOUTHEASTERN NIOBRARA AND
NORTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM MDT...

At 1125 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harrison, or 29 miles east of Lusk, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crawford, Harrison, Flahertys Corner, Fort Robinson Campground and
Fort Robinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 10411 4280 10398 4270 10322 4228 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 288DEG 32KT 4267 10389

Trudel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1229 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

NEZ095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-050715-
North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-East Platte County WY-Goshen County WY-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-Niobrara County WY-
1229 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SIOUX...SOUTHERN
NIOBRARA...NORTHERN GOSHEN...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM MDT...

At 1228 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Lusk, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rawhide Buttes around 1240 AM MDT.
  Jay Em around 1250 AM MDT.
  Prairie Center around 100 AM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hwy 85 At Dry Rawhide
Creek and Van Tassell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 10494 4292 10472 4272 10376 4217 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 289DEG 39KT 4266 10461

Trudel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
120 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

NEZ002-003-019-095-096-WYZ102-108-050800-
Scotts Bluff NE-Box Butte NE-Dawes NE-North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-
Goshen County WY-Niobrara County WY-
120 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE...NORTH
CENTRAL SCOTTS BLUFF...SOUTHWESTERN DAWES...SOUTHERN SIOUX...
SOUTHEASTERN NIOBRARA AND NORTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM
MDT...

At 119 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles north of Torrington, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Agate Bed National Monument around 135 AM MDT.
  Flahertys Corner around 200 AM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hwy 85 At Dry Rawhide
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4228 10439 4263 10418 4252 10330 4189 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 289DEG 38KT 4238 10404

Trudel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
217 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

NEZ003-019-021-096-050915-
Scotts Bluff NE-Box Butte NE-Morrill NE-South Sioux NE-
217 AM MDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOX BUTTE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTTS
BLUFF...NORTHERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
MDT...

At 216 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Scottsbluff, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kilpatrick Lake around 245 AM MDT.
  Angora around 315 AM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Broadwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 10274 4195 10372 4237 10362 4231 10275
      4210 10274 4209 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 292DEG 26KT 4209 10358

Trudel