Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
243 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to spread east
across the Alleghenies into the central ridge and valley region
during the mid afternoon and early evening before dissipating
later tonight. Fair weather is expected Sunday and Monday, with
temperatures turning warmer and more humid into early next
week. Thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday followed by a
refreshingly cooler and mainly dry second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*Severe Thunderstorm watch #457 until 9pm for portions of
 southwestern and south-central PA.

Risk for severe thunderstorms has increased throughout the day
with SPC upgrading a portion of the area to SLGT risk. Large-
scale NWP and CAM model guidance continue to exhibit considerable
agreement indicating storms currently over east-central Ohio
will spread into southwestern and south-central Pennsylvania
during the late afternoon and early evening. Recent MCD
highlights the evolving severe risk with cold air aloft and
steep lapse rates promoting hail and locally damaging wind
gusts - especially if storms can organize into short line
segments. The most likely timing for storms is btwn 4 and 8pm.

Expect convection to diminish in intensity/coverage as it
pushes into east-central PA/Susquehanna Valley region during
the late evening. Dry wx expected after midnight as high
pressure builds over the area. Models are showing low stratus
potential over the Alleghenies with weak upslope flow and low
level moisture trapped under subsidence inversion. Patchy
fog is also likely in the usual spots across the central
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather expected to end the weekend with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a
renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the
new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the
80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday.

There's decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass
through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will
be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next
week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting
late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as
scattered showers Wednesday.

The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and
mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of
southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Local thunderstorm impacts are possible between 20-04Z with the
most favorable area over the southwest and s-central airspace
prior to 00Z. Clearing skies fcst tonight with models suggesting
potential for IFR stratus/fog mainly over the western 1/2 of
the airspace. Early morning restrictions will improve to VFR by
14Z.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog.
Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely.
Wed...Improving conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

PAZ004>006-037-042-051>053-057>059-064>066-201900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail
are possible during the mid to late afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049-050-056-063-
201900-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
443 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

PAZ017>019-024>026-192200-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
Southern Centre PA-
443 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT PARTS OF
CLEARFIELD... HUNTINGDON...CENTRE...BLAIR...AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES
BETWEEN 500 PM AND 600 PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Rockton to 8 miles north of Indiana to near
Delmont to Whitehall. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belmont, Johnstown, DuBois, State College, Westmont, Portage,
Clearfield, Hollidaysburg, Bellefonte, Nanty-Glo, Altoona, Ebensburg,
Tyrone, Windber, Salix-Beauty Line Park, Pine Grove Mills, Bellwood,
Spruce Creek, Ski Gap and Pine Glen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in State College PA.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7892 4072 7880 4115 7880 4119 7877
      4114 7801 4116 7800 4116 7779 4111 7775
      4104 7757 4099 7753 4087 7761 4032 7844
      4029 7852 4033 7862 4024 7866 4024 7886
      4028 7893 4029 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 270DEG 47KT 4110 7861 4074 7917 4045 7958 4036
7997

Lambert