Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slide southeast across the state today.
Cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend. Low pressure
will track west of Pennsylvania early next week, with the
trailing cold front coming through the region Sunday night or
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The meso anal shows the cold front settling into my southern
zones with the RAP indicating low level Theta-E advection going
negative over all but the far southern stripe of the CWA. This
is where the scattered convection is firing in the moderately
unstable airmass along and ahead of the front.

The best Cape of 1000-2000J extends along the MD border and the
trend shows the atmosphere becoming more stable as the
cool/negative Theta-E advection works south through the region.
Wind shear has decreased markedly since this morning so the
severe threat now seems to be mainly from an isolated pulse
storm in the still warm and humid airmass. The convective
threat will decrease as we lose heating and the front continues
its push south.

Basin average QPF will be generally 0.10 of an inch or less in
southern PA. However, localized amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are
possible in places impacted by heavier showers and storms.

High temps today ranging from the mid/upper 60s across far NW
PA, to the upper 80s in the Lower Susq Valley will be a good
10-15 deg above normal across all but the far NW zones, where
they will be near to slightly above normal.

A lingering shower will be possible through mid evening before
drier air works into all areas by midnight. Lows will range from
the mid 40s to mid 50s north to south with lower dewpoints
making for more comfortable sleeping conditions than the last
couple of nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Saturday is expected to remain dry, with the exception of a
shower possibly working into the far SW before the sun goes
down. Increasing mid/high clouds could mar what otherwise would
be a nearly perfect mid spring day.

Highs generally in the 70s will be a few degrees either side of
normal for mid May.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over New England will slowly retreat off the East
Coast on Sunday. The chance for showers will begin to increase
from west to east through the day, ahead of a cold front
approaching from the Midwest. Some thunder is possible by Sunday
aftn across the west.

The cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night
into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly
some thunder. A weak area of high pressure will build in behind
the front, providing a pleasant Tuesday.

It looks like things may turn unsettled again during the middle
to later part of next week, as upper-level low pressure drops
into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the
Mid-Atlantic region. This could bring a round of cooler, wet
weather to the region Wed into Thurs.

The upper-low should begin to lift out by Friday, allowing
conditions to slowly improve.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR will continue across central Pennsylvania through
Saturday.

The exception will be if a terminal takes a direct hit from the
small shower/thunderstorm cells that are popping up over
southern areas. Any restrictions will be brief.

As the front pushes south of Pennsylvania late this afternoon
and evening, the threat of precipitation will diminish with VFR
conditions expected overnight and continuing into Saturday.

The next system will introduce a slight chance of showers into
the west Saturday evening, with more widespread showers
developing later Sunday and Sunday Night.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms likely west advancing east by
late afternoon and evening.

Mon...Becoming VFR with showers ending from west to east.

Tue...VFR.

Wed...Widespread restrictions developing with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
407 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-200815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
407 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-200815-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
407 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

PAZ065-066-191945-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER AND YORK
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Sunnyburn, moving east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wakefield, Holtwood, Sunnyburn, Delta, Brogue, Fawn Grove, Peach
Bottom, Little Britain, Airville and Susquehanna Trails.

LAT...LON 3989 7647 3982 7603 3981 7603 3980 7605
      3979 7604 3976 7606 3976 7608 3973 7610
      3974 7611 3972 7614 3972 7655
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 288DEG 23KT 3979 7642

La Corte