Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
626 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving storm system will bring an extended period of of
wet and chilly weather to the region that will last into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Lull in the precip occurring right now, but clearing to the west
and south may7 allow thunderstorms to form and slide into the
area. However, the NE is likely to stay very stable through the
evening. The highest chc for thunder will be across the west
closer to the sunshine. SPC MRGL risk is still in place for the
west, but shear is lessening with time and storms will also have
little time to form this aftn/evening before the solar portion
of the instability goes away. The main area of low pressure will
be over the Alleghenies tonight. Cold air will begin to
infiltrate from the west. By morning, 8H temps will be close to
zero C in Warren Co. Clouds will be stubborn and low all night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface low pushes to the north through the morning and 8H temps
drop into the negatives over all of the western high terrain.
Daytime temps may hold or fall in the west, but rise slightly in
the east. Overall, a very cloudy day. West wind should not be
very strong, but gusts into the 20s are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The previous trends of the models continue as the early part of
the extended forecast enjoys a fair amount of model agreement
with the upper low slowly dumbbelling about the region through
at least Tuesday. From there disagreement between the ECMWF and
GFS begins to emerge as the models handle the details of their
developing omega blocking pattern in slightly but significantly
different ways. The EC maintains an elongated upper low locked
in from the coastal waters of New England back into the Gr Lakes
while the GFS pops a fairly significant ridge up into the
region between the one low off the coast and another complex
system from the upper plains down over the central Miss Valley.
The GEFS looks more like the ECMWF which lends a little higher
confidence to the idea of at least some scattered showers
remaining a threat into the end of the period.

The biggest news perhaps will be the chill. Models show 850
temps some 2-4 std dev below normal moving in by Saturday
afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. After a very warm April
parts of the region could actually be cold enough to see some
wet snow, with even a coating of the ground over the higher
elevations of the north not out of the question. The coldest
overnight lows looks to be Sunday and Monday nights with a slow
moderation developing for midweek. But starting tomorrow, we
will be in for a rare extended period of below normal
temperatures that look to last into next weekend.

Precipitation threats will be dependent on impulses rotating
around the stubborn upper low and then exactly what that upper
low does as we near the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm front working into southern Pa early this evening, causing
CIGs to rise (JST and AOO are VFR at 22Z). However, moist
southeast flow north of this boundary is still resulting in
lower CIGs across the rest of central Pa. Near term model output
indicates the warm front will make only a minor advancement
north tonight, likely bringing VFR conditions to MDT and LNS
after midnight, but little improvement across northern Pa.

A slow moving cold front will work into the region tonight from
the west. Behind this feature, model soundings and SREF prob
charts support a high probability of IFR/LIFR CIGs at BFD and
JST later tonight. Light wind and variably cloudy skies make a
tough forecast further east, with fog a concern. For now,
believe there will be enough cloud cover and a breeze to
preclude significant fog formation, but MVFR CIGs/VSBYS appear
likely at AOO/UNV/IPT.

An upper level trough will swing through the region on Saturday,
accompanied by numerous rain showers and widespread MVFR
conditions. At BFD/JST, IFR CIGs appear likely during the
morning hours, then improving conditions by afternoon, as mixing
with boundary layer causes CIGs to rise a bit.

Outlook...

Sun...AM low CIGs/showers BFD/JST, VFR elsewhere.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru
AVIATION...Dangelo/Fitzgerald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
359 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-060800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
359 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There will be a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Abnormally cold air for early May will bring the threat of freezing
temperatures or frost to much of the region Monday and Tuesday
mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MILTON                  41.01N  76.85W
05/05/2017                   NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN EAST MILTON 2500 WITHOUT POWER
            THROUGH OUT AREA

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701183

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 7 NE MONTOURSVILLE      41.32N  76.82W
05/05/2017                   LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DESTROYED HOUSE ALONG ROUTE 87

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701180

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
542 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

PAZ036-063-052215-
Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
542 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...A SHOWER WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER FRANKLIN AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 6:15 PM...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Guilford, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shippensburg, Chambersburg, Fayetteville, Newville, Guilford,
Scotland, Walnut Bottom, Orrstown and Shippensburg University.

LAT...LON 3989 7771 4020 7758 4021 7757 4022 7753
      4026 7747 4016 7722 3983 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 210DEG 33KT 3991 7761

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

PAZ056-063-052245-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Walnut Bottom, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shippensburg, Carlisle, Carlisle Springs, Newville, Bloserville,
Plainfield, Colonel Denning State Park, Walnut Bottom, Schlusser and
Shippensburg University.

LAT...LON 4005 7753 4009 7754 4010 7756 4012 7756
      4013 7758 4037 7748 4030 7712 4004 7741
      4001 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 204DEG 31KT 4009 7747

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
706 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

PAZ028-056-052330-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-
706 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...A GUSTY SHOWER WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY AND JUNIATA COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 705 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a shower with
gusty winds over Loysville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcalisterville, Loysville, Ickesburg, Mexico, Newport, Millerstown,
Landisburg, Thompsontown, East Salem and Port Royal.

LAT...LON 4035 7744 4068 7734 4069 7729 4068 7718
      4062 7700 4031 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 205DEG 18KT 4038 7736

DeVoir

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