Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold will push east across the Commonwealth this
afternoon into early tonight. The front will usher in brisk
west to northwest winds and cooler air for Tuesday. Fair weather
with milder temperatures will occur Wednesday under a weak
ridge of high pressure. A new storm system is likely to affect
the region from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Much colder
air is expected for late Friday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated information for severe thunderstorm watch
across the southeast until 11 PM.

Line of storms just moving across the office now.

Tornado Watch #185 in effect until 10 PM...

Earlier discussion below.

Latest radar shows a line of moderate showers moving toward my
western zones. So far no lighting being observed but stability
is eroding as breaks begin developing in the cloudcover of the
warm sector that covers just about the entire CWA. Far eastern
areas are experiencing the last vestiges of the cool air damming
and marine layer that has kept cool- moist conditions in place.

Conditions are falling into place for a widespread outbreak of
potentially severe thunderstorms and even some isolated strong
tornadoes. RAP is depicting EHI's of 1-3 (anything greater than
1 is significant) already in place over Central Pa. Deep layer
shear is simultaneously a very impressive 50-70kt over most of
my CWA.

The main line of convection is starting to form over eastern
Ohio, and the HRRR tracks it east across the area between about
20-01Z. The main mode of convection looks to be linear with
bowing segments/QLCS storms, but the potential for rotation
within isolated elements will be very high. LCL's are marginal
but within the parameters that if a supercells begins to show
strong gate to gate shear, tornadogenesis will be very possible.

SPC has continued the ENHANCED risk over practically all of PA.

Forecast storm total rainfall amount by midnight tonight will
range from one-half of an inch, to one inch in some areas of
Ncent and NW PA.

Afternoon high temps should reach the mid/upr 70s...to near
80F in some of the Central and Southern Valleys. Anything
slightly warmer than this spells more significant severe
weather concerns, and could prompt SPC to raise the Day 1
outlook into the MDT category across portions of the state,
considering the existing llvl boundaries and highly anomalous
low-mid level shear.

A narrow north/south ribbon of +3-4 sigma PWAT air along and
just ahead of the cold front will support some locally heavy
downpours and storm total QPF by 04Z Tuesday up over one inch
in some spots. WPC highlights a small portion of my NERN zones
with a MARGINAL risk of heavy rain/flooding. It's still too soon
(with some uncertainties) to get into any type of flood watches
at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Expect significant convection to be ongoing/near to exiting the
extreme eastern CWA during the late evening hours tonight. Cold
front forcing the convection will move east through the state
overnight into Tuesday morning, advecting much chillier air into
the state.

Scattered to numerous rain showers may linger until 06Z before
weak post frontal ridging slides east over the region after
midnight accompanied by drier and cooler lvll air.

Lows early Tuesday will vary from the mid 40s across the NW
mtns, to the upper 50s in the SE.

GEFS axis of 2-3 sigma WSW 850 mb winds and the presence of
45-50 kt winds occupying the top of the well-mixed layer (at
around 4-5 kft agl Tuesday afternoon) will lead to sfc wind gusts
easily in the 30 to 35 kt range, and perhaps even 5-10 kts
higher.

High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the L50s across the NW
mtns...L60s just to the SE of the I99/Rt 220 corridor, and upper
60s near and to the SE of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will dominate the region through much of the long
term period with one upper trof exiting at the start of the
period and a second arriving late week. Early on, a gusty NW
wind and unsettled light showery weather will persisting mainly
for the northern part of the state right into Wednesday.

A chance for a more widespread/soaking (MDT to HVY) rain
arrives Thu afternoon into Fri, as the latest 00Z Operational
GFS/EC run and their EFSs are coming into decent/converging
agreement with an area of low pressure progged to develop along
the southern Appalachians and the lift north-northeastward.

Although this event shows some pretty strong signals (even at
this long time range) for a potential, widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall late in the upcoming week, A wide and varying array of
models solutions has been present prior to the latest model run
or two to throw some uncertainty into the mix w/respect to the
specific timing and amount of showers across the CWA.

Fri night and Saturday will turn windy and quite cool with
isolated rain showers falling across the central mtns, while
the Alleghenies experiences more numerous rain showers...likely
changing over to snow showers across most of the region. Cyclonic
flow will begin to wane early next week, with slowly improving
conditions, as the second upper trof lifts out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main factors for the beginning of this forecast will be the
diminishing threat for thunderstorms. A continuing forecast
issue will be the gusty winds and low level windshear.

Two thin lines of convection will continue to move through the
area through sunset. One line will move toward KMDT and KLNS
with the other set to affect KJST and KAOO over the next few
hours.

As the convection slides east overnight, winds will shift to
the west northwest and remain gusty...15 to 20kts with gusts to
30 kts through the forecast period.

VFR conditions will develop overnight and continue during the
day.

Outlook...

Wed...Showers ending NW. MVFR cigs west becoming VFR. Decreasing
winds.

Thu-Sat...Widespread sub-VFR with periods of rain.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Tyburski/Head

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
708 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-021845-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
708 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034-035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-021845-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
708 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 185 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-021845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
708 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Martin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
835 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S TIOGA               41.89N  77.14W
05/01/2017                   TIOGA              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIDING REMOVED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701133

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
836 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAMAR                   41.01N  77.51W
05/01/2017                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON HOMES

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701134

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
839 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINE GROVE MILLS        40.74N  77.87W
05/01/2017                   CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701135

JMC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
854 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOALSBURG               40.77N  77.79W
05/01/2017                   CENTRE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR MILITARY MUSEUM

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701138

TYBURSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
902 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

PAZ027-049-050-020130-
Union PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
902 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF UNION...MIFFLIN...AND
SNYDER COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 902 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Laurelton Center to near Alfarata. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mifflinburg, Milton, Yeagertown, Alfarata, Weikert, Reedsville,
Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Forest Hill, Sand Bridge State Park,
McClure, Vicksburg, Reeds Gap State Park, New Columbia, Belltown,
Beaver Springs, Troxelville, Spruce Run Reservoir, Laurelton Center,
Penns Creek and Burnham.

LAT...LON 4073 7719 4061 7766 4082 7745 4085 7736
      4098 7721 4109 7688 4107 7686 4102 7686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 233DEG 35KT 4093 7729 4069 7750

KF