Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
157 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are forecast
this afternoon across east-central Pennsylvania. Gusty winds
and noticeably colder temperatures will follow behind a cold
front later today into tonight with scattered snow showers
across the Alleghenies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorm risk is now focusing on the Lower Susq.
Valley. SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #39 through 26/01z.
Latest radar trends indicate a substantial increase in coverage
and intensity of thunderstorms and lightning across NVA/MD
tracking ENEWD toward/into southeast PA. 18z SPC mesoanalysis
shows an area of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE over the LSV with dewpoints
near 60F. Strong winds aloft and focused forcing along cold
front is supportive of fast-moving bowing structures capable of
producing damaging winds.

Risk for severe storms ends by 22z as the cold front pushes east
of the area. The watch will likely need to be cancelled a few
hours early. A period of brisk and colder west winds will
follow behind the FROPA with peak gusts 45-50mph on the highest
ridges in Laurels. A few snow showers will also spill downwind
of Lake Erie and over the higher terrain along the Alleghenies.
Little to no accumulation is expected. Low temps will bottom out
in the 20s north to around 30 in the south -- a remarkable 30 to
40 degrees colder than yesterdays record warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Morning flurries and scattered snow showers will come to an end
by the afternoon over the NW mtns with winds continuing to
decrease as high pressure moves over the area. Temperatures will
return to near or slightly below average for late February - but
it will feel much colder given the recent run of magnificent
spring-like warmth.

High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night
with clouds increase ahead of shortwave tracking through the Mid
MS/OH Valley. Model blend keeps pcpn well to the SW of the area
through daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The latest 00Z Oper and EFS runs show a warm frontal boundary
moving into the region Tuesday. This will bring the next chance
for light precipitation with possible warmer than normal
temperatures though not as high as currently. Another upper
level trough moving through the Great lakes could bring another
cold front through the mid Atlantic region later next week.
There are inconsistencies in timing and placement.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
25/18z| Coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is increasing
early this afternoon from NVA into SE PA with main focus for
severe storms now over the southeast 1/4 of the airspace. Main
risk is for strong to locally damaging winds (40+KT) impacting
KMDT/KLNS airspace 19-21z. Gusty winds (25-35KT) expected behind
cold front with wind shift to 250-300 degrees by this evening.
Expect shower activity to taper off from west to east behind
the front later this afternoon into the evening. Colder air will
filter into the area with scattered light snow showers/flurries
developing downwind of Lake Erie and across the higher terrain
of western PA with some lower CIGs and brief visby reductions
psbl into Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...MVFR/-shsn west bcmg VFR. Mainly VFR central-east.
Decreasing winds.

Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain.

Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely.

Thu...Strong FROPA with gusty winds. Sub-VFR likely west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Updated 11am 2/25/17**

New Record high temperatures for Feb. 24:

Harrisburg 2/24: 76. Previous 75 in 1985; all-time Feb record
is 78F.

Williamsport 2/24: 76. Previous 71 in 1985; New record high
temperature for the month of February.

Altoona 2/24: 75. Previous 69 in 1985; New record high
temperature for the month of February.

Bradford 2/24: 69. Previous 59 in 1961; New record high
temperature for the month of February.

State College 2/25: 74. New record high temperature for February
and meteorological winter (DJF).

-----------------------------------------------------------

Warmest February on Record (Avg. Temperature through 2/24)

Harrisburg: 2017 rank=1 (40.8)
2. 40.4 in 1998
3. 39.6 in 1976
4. 39.4 in 1954

Williamsport: 2017 rank=1 (37.6)
2. 37.0 in 1998
3. 36.1 in 1954
4. 35.6 in 2002

Altoona: 2017 rank=1 (39.3)
2. 37.4 in 1976
3. 36.2 in 1998
4. 35.9 in 1990/1954

Bradford: 2017 rank=T1 (32.3)
1. 32.3 in 1998
2. 30.1 in 2002
3. 29.6 in 2012
4. 29.5 in 1990/1976
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
213 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

PAZ056-063-064-251945-
Perry PA-Adams PA-Cumberland PA-
213 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY...ADAMS...AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EST...

At 213 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Newville to near Carroll Valley. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Gettysburg, Newport, Plainfield, Loysville, Ickesburg, New
Oxford, Lake Meade, Bonneauville, Pine Grove Furnace, New Bloomfield,
Colonel Denning State Park, Mount Holly Springs, Carroll Valley,
Newville, Bloserville, Wertzville, Boiling Springs, Walnut Bottom and
Hampton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 7747 3997 7745 4002 7751 4041 7750
      4059 7704 4014 7704 4007 7713 4002 7704
      3972 7704 3972 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 228DEG 34KT 4019 7739 3979 7744

RXR

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