Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS State College, PA

684 
WWUS51 KCTP 301747
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAC033-047-301815-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170530T1815Z/
Elk PA-Clearfield PA-
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELK AND NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTIES...

At 146 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Lecontes Mills, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to 
         trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Clearfield, Force, Benezette, Plymptonville, Parker Dam State Park,
Lecontes Mills, Medix Run, Penfield, Karthaus and S.B. Elliot State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7859 4130 7851 4136 7825 4123 7824
      4122 7810 4115 7804 4113 7806 4112 7811
      4106 7809 4105 7806 4103 7808 4103 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 259DEG 42KT 4116 7837 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Jung

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1211 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain centered over southeast Canada
and the northeast conus through the next week. With the
exception of Thursday, shortwaves rotating through the trough
will bring unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mother nature has already given us a peek at the cards she's
playing as earlier radar echoes with a few low-topped tsra
exhibited some weak llvl rotation near a distinct and quasi
stnry boundary between overcast skies/low stratus across the SE
half of the state, and warmer air with partly sunny skies across
the central and western part of the CWA.

Within the Central third of the state and SPC's Slight Risk area
will be a rather narrow north/south belt where there's a high
prob for sfc based capes to exceed 1000 j/kg with localized max
capes around 2000 j/kg that will fuel some fairly strong
updrafts and discrete TSRA cells.

Preferred storm type based on 1) model hodographs, 2) EHI
values of 1-2 m2/s2 and 3) several runs of the HRRR indicate
that short/bowing line segments and supercells will occur
between the rt 219 corridor and Interstate 81 this afternoon
into very early this evening (with the target area between the
I-99/rt220 and the wrn edge of the stratus deck across the SE
half of the CWA).

In addition to the threat for localized damaging wind gusts and
a few instances of large hail with the expected supercells,
there is the potential for one or two EF0-EF1 tornadoes based on
the strength of the LLVL shear within the region bounded by
a line from KBFD-KFIG-KAOO-KHGR-KIPT-KELM.

Max temps will be in the mid to upper 70s throughout the
South Central PA Valleys just east of the Allegheny front, and
lower 70s elsewhere across the Ncent/NW mtns and Laurel
Highlands. The Susq Valley and Western Poconos will struggle to
make it to the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Convection is expected to die out pretty quickly around 00Z
this evening, as showers/storms encounter more stable
environment across eastern Pa and shortwave lifts northeast into
New Eng. Additional weak shortwave energy is progged to rotate
through tonight. However, only very marginal instability will be
left over, resulting in only isold showers after midnight.
Partial clearing, wet ground and light wind will likely result
in patchy fog overnight across much of the region.

Next in series of shortwaves is progged to swing through the
region Wednesday, accompanied by scattered showers/storms
occurring mainly during the afternoon. Despite lack of much
CAPE, strong mid level flow and associated 0-6km shear could
support organized convection with the threat of damaging wind
gusts in a few locations. Well mixed soundings and mean 850mb
temps of 8-12C should translate to max temps from the mid 60s
over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 70s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is fairly strong model consensus for a mostly sunny/dry
Thursday, as surface ridge and associated low PWAT air mass
builds across the region. In the longer range, persistent upper
level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast conus will
dominant our wx pattern Fri-Mon, producing frequent
opportunities for showers and temperatures around to slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR-LMVFR ceilings expected to persist for much of the day
across the eastern TAFs in ZNY sector.

Periods of MVFR cigs across the central third of the state with
larger breaks in the clouds and generally sct-bkn vfr cigs over
western PA helping to fuel another band or two of developing
TSRA.

The most likely timing for scattered strong to severe storms
will be 17-22z along/ahead of weak surface front pushing east
across the airspace.

included a few 2-4hr MVFR TEMPO group for sites to the west of
the Susq River to account for the approx timing of individual
bands of convection. This may need to be enhanced with the
18z TAF issuance.

It is still unclear how much the shallow bkn-ovc low clouds
will impact tstm risk as storms push east over ZNY sector and
have opted for shra (vs -tsra) as the primary weather type at
KMDT and KLNS due to limited instability, with a tempo TSRA
group at KIPT til 19Z then VCTS afterward until 23Z.

The models seem to be in agreement with patchy fog/low stratus
redeveloping tonight especially over the eastern 1/2 of the
airspace with restrictions possible into Wednesday morning.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...AM Low cigs psbl ern 1/3. PM Isold-sct strong/svr storms
psbl.

Thu...AM fog/low cigs psbl wrn 1/2.

Fri-Sat...Periods of sub-VFR likely with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

PAZ004-310815-
Warren-
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail are
possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-310815-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large
hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible between noon and 6 pm
today. An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail are
possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1035 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ037-041-301530-
Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
1035 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1034 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Slate Run, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Leetonia, Millerton, Arnot, Covington,
Ogdensburg, Cedar Run, Cammal, Slate Run, Blossburg, Morris, English
Center, Buttonwood, Roseville, Liberty, Ski Sawmill Ski Area and
Mansfield University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 7687 4133 7748 4136 7753 4144 7760
      4153 7760 4200 7696 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 230DEG 38KT 4149 7747

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ018-024>026-301645-
Northern Centre PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
1201 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRE...
BLAIR...CAMBRIA...AND HUNTINGDON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

At 1200 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Loretto, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone, Ebensburg, Loretto, Bellwood, Tipton, Birmingham, Blandburg,
Prince Gallitzin State Park, Sandy Ridge, Bald Eagle, Warriors Mark,
Chest Springs, Ashville, Saint Francis University and Delgrosso's
Amusement Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 7875 4073 7846 4073 7836 4076 7837
      4077 7835 4080 7834 4086 7823 4078 7817
      4074 7823 4074 7814 4066 7808 4048 7872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 236DEG 30KT 4055 7866

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1217 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ005-006-011-301700-
McKean PA-Potter PA-Cameron PA-
1217 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MCKEAN...POTTER...AND
CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1216 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated two strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Keating Summit to Sizerville.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Galeton, Cherry Springs State Park, Roulette, Genesee, Keating
Summit, Denton Hill State Park, Lyman Run State Park, Coudersport,
Emporium, Sizerville, Austin, Ulysses, Oswayo, Sweden Valley and Ski
Denton Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 7760 4168 7760 4149 7823 4171 7840
      4200 7792 4200 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 241DEG 35KT 4172 7827 4160 7817

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ012-017-018-301700-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-Clearfield PA-
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRE...
NORTHERN CLINTON...AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1219 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Karthaus, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westport, Renovo, Keating, Pine Glen, Karthaus and South Renovo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7823 4113 7828 4137 7775 4121 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 241DEG 34KT 4109 7817

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1244 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ006-037-301730-
Potter PA-Tioga PA-
1244 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF POTTER AND TIOGA
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1244 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Coudersport to near Wharton. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Denton Hill State Park, Galeton, Harrison Valley, Wharton, Cherry
Springs State Park, Lyman Run State Park, Coudersport, Austin,
Ulysses, Sweden Valley and Ski Denton Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 7754 4151 7805 4162 7815 4179 7812
      4200 7780 4200 7757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 235DEG 24KT 4177 7803 4158 7803

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

PAZ035-036-301745-
Fulton PA-Franklin PA-
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Warfordsburg, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greencastle, Big Cove Tannery, Fort Loudon, Mercersburg, Needmore,
Warfordsburg, Claylick, McConnellsburg, St. Thomas, Williamson, State
Line, Upton, Warrenton, Middleburg, Maugansville and Whitetail Ski
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7833 3976 7835 3978 7832 4000 7783
      3972 7771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 247DEG 34KT 3974 7822

Lambert