Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1225 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the
commonwealth late today. High pressure will build into the
state from the Ohio Valley accompanied by fair, dry weather for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar shows convection starting to fire over the Laurel
Highlands up into the Northern Mountains in an increasingly
unstable airmass. The first lightning strikes have been
observed in Clearfield county with the showers moving basically
eastward.

The HRRR shows the activity continuing to blossom into the
afternoon, especially as the convection moves into the Susq
Valley. Have to stay alert for flooding as portions of the lower
Susq saw rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches last evening.

SPC has upgraded the area to a Slight Risk given respectable
shear and the expected development of CAPE in the 1500-2000J
range by the height of afternoon heating.

NCAR's 00Z Ensemble 6-hour total rainfall (ending at 00Z
Sunday) implies that locations across the Lower Susq Valley
could be under the gun again this afternoon with localized 0.75
to 1.25 inch amounts.

High temps today will range from the mid 70s across the NW mtns
and Laurel Highlands, to the low 80s in the SE valleys and Metro
Areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Latest guidance shows the main shortwave energy speeding by to
our north allowing drier air to build in behind a departing cold
front tonight into Sunday. There should be enough of a light WNW
breeze tonight to cause some upslope stratus across the
Alleghenies of Western PA, but not much in the way of fog.

Will still mention patchy 1-2SM fog in the deeper valleys late
tonight through the mid morning hours Sunday.

Sunday should be a splendid day for outdoor activities with
temps slightly below seasonal normals, sct-bkn stratocu and
cu, and comfortable/low relative humidity with sfc dewpoints
ranging from the 50s across the central and nw zones, to around
60F in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure center slides across PA Sunday night and
off the coast Monday. Most areas will remain dry under the high
but on the back side of the high moisture will move north along
the spine of the Appalachians with an inverted trough bringing a
by late afternoon over the Laurels and slight chances/isolated
north over the mpuntains.

Monday night a short-wave trough to our west over the Great
Lakes will bring some clouds and a slight chance of a shower. As
the short-wave nears and with heating of the day Tuesday, some
scattered convection will develop over the central and eastern
counties of PA. Short-wave ridge moves in behind this Tuesday
night with a dry high pressure pattern over PA through
Wednesday.

A backdoor cold front moves into northeast area Wednesday night
but likely only some clouds. The next storm system approaches
from the west with a slight chance of showers moving into the
western zones by morning. Warm front will increase POPs on
Thursday spreading east across the PA with a cold front
approaching western PA by afternoon Thursday. Models showing
some uncertainty with the timing of this next system through PA.
The pattern aloft becomes more zonal with short-waves moving
across keeping the weather unsettled into the weekend.

Temperatures next week will average near to slightly cooler
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering MVFR ceilings over our western higher elevations will
become mainly VFR by early afternoon.

VFR will prevail with local restrictions developing associated
with scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by
early to mid ahead of a cold front pushing southeast from the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Surface pattern looks more favorable for low stratus over the
western TAFs tonight with mainly VFR at the eastern terminals
into Sunday.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun...No significant weather.

Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered SHRA in the afternoon/evening.

Tue-Wed...No significant weather.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...La Corte/Steinbugl

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

PAZ019-026-027-121800-
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...CENTRE...
AND MIFFLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Ramblewood, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Potters Mills, Ramblewood, Pine Grove Mills,
Houserville, Boalsburg, Lemont, Park Forest Village, Centre Hall,
Seven Mountains, Rock Springs, Stormstown, Barrville, Tussey Mountain
Ski Area, Pennsylvania State University and Pennsylvania Military
Museum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 7802 4083 7800 4085 7761 4063 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 282DEG 16KT 4077 7796

Evanego