Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will push into the central mountains and hang up
over eastern and southern parts of the state tonight and for
Tuesday. High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday,
but another front will move down from the north and stall over
the region for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms in the SE are very water-heavy and shear minimal
there. FF risk is high, and few if any hail and wind reports
have been received as of 3 PM EDT. Will continue to monitor for
mainly flooding worries. The front won't get past our CWA by the
end of the night.

Fog is a good bet later tonight in the SE and perhaps the
valleys of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Additional storm will flare up again during the day heating.
But, severe is not expected, with both shear and PWATs lower
than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough should be moving east of the area very
early in the long range period. However, the timing is slightly
in question for when to make the forecast mostly dry.

The upper flow is characterized by a persistent WNW flow due to
weak troughing over ern Canada and a flat, broad ridge over the
Srn/SErn states through almost the entire period.

This puts the region at risk for some convection almost every
day - mainly from either diurnal convection or dying MCSs. But,
the mean steering current lends itself to just slightly below
normal POPs on the whole. The driest time in the extended
appears to be Wednesday through midday Thursday.

A fairly potent trough moves in/through around Thursday/Night
periods and have made POPs inch into the 60s in the NW, but held
them in CHCs everywhere else. The first half of the weekend
(Fri/Sat) could be dry, but low CHC POPs still probably the best
bet then with the timing of individual MCSs and short waves a
folly at this range in such a fast, almost zonal, flow.
Consensus forecast then increases POPs again later in the
weekend.

The PWATs never really get too far from normals. The 8H temps also
waggle only 2-4C through the period - hanging in the 15-18C range.
The upper ridge to the south should help us to stay at or above
normal temps through the long range. Thus, maxes should run mainly
u80s-l90s in the SE and u70s-l80s in the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early threats for IFR will be from TSRA in IPT and MDT/LNS. Then
the diurnal heating will be lost and just a few TSRA/SHRA will
linger into the kate evening. Fog may become a problem where the
rain has fallen, but also in the northern valleys. Have
mentioned fog just about everywhere, but confidence is low away
from MDT and LNS.

Additional storms will fire up during the day on Tues, and
restrictions are possible.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx.

Thu-Fri...Sct tsra impacts, esp NW.

Sat...no sig wx

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>035-045-181645-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Southern Clinton-
1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible during the afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-058-181645-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible during the
afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-181645-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-181645-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible during the afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with
maximum heat index values between 95 and 100 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1226 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAZ053-171700-
Columbia PA-
1226 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF COLUMBIA COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM EDT...

At 1226 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Rohrsburg, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fairmount Spgs, Stillwater and Cambra.

LAT...LON 4105 7630 4112 7642 4131 7631 4120 7631
      4113 7627 4114 7623 4113 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 201DEG 12KT 4113 7633

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAZ063-171715-
Cumberland PA-
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM EDT...

At 1250 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Holly Springs, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boiling Springs and Mount Holly Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7732 4018 7712 4014 7704 4004 7718
      4002 7720 4002 7727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 258DEG 17KT 4007 7722

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAZ065-066-171815-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
136 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER AND YORK
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Emigsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dallastown, York, Spry, Columbia, Weigelstown, Red Lion, North York,
Mount Wolf, West York, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Bainbridge, East York,
Yorklyn, Grantley, Hallam, Jacobus, Yorkana, Tyler Run-Queens Gate,
Yoe and Marietta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4002 7682 4013 7668 4000 7641 3981 7682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 312DEG 3KT 4002 7669

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
153 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAZ058-171830-
Schuylkill PA-
153 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Pine Grove, moving north at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Schuylkill Haven, Minersville, St. Clair, Pottsville, Ashland, Beurys
Lake, Orwigsburg, Seltzer, Buck Run, New Philadelphia, Port Carbon,
Donaldson, Friedensburg, Marlin, Fountain Springs, Forrestville,
Heckscherville, Lavelle, Renningers and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 7605 4058 7607 4053 7617 4053 7622
      4052 7624 4052 7634 4051 7635 4050 7645
      4052 7647 4071 7650 4078 7636 4073 7607
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 192DEG 15KT 4057 7641

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
202 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAZ064-065-171830-
York PA-Adams PA-
202 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK AND ADAMS COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Aspers, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hampton, Aspers, Lake Meade, Heidlersburg, Idaville, York Springs,
Gardners, Bendersville and Wellsville.

LAT...LON 3988 7709 3998 7727 4003 7721 4003 7719
      4006 7715 4007 7713 4006 7691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 291DEG 9KT 4001 7717

Evanego