Small Craft Advisory 89, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1151 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See marine discussion below for the latest updates.

&&

.MARINE...

Buoy019 is currently reporting sustained winds of 21KT. Winds
across the offshore waters are expected to be moderate to strong
through the night into Saturday morning with speeds around 20KT.
Therefore, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the offshore
waters through 15Z Sat. Winds are expected to decrease through Sat
morning ahead of a cold front.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1034 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Based on model soundings, 850mb winds expected to become more SW
toward morning, and some of the MOS guidance trends, am going to
go a bit more optimistic (not as low or frequent) on the fog and
lower ceilings. Confidence is increasing in this because right now
the fog channel on satellite is not showing much on cloud/fog and
the same is true on the area METARs. Thus, am going with VFR
conditions with TEMPO MVFR conditions all terminals. We could have
borderline wind shear at KVCT if winds totally decouple but will
hold off on that since the terminal forecast there does have some
near surface wind and the jet is forecast to be around 30 knots
(close but not high enough confidence to put shear in at this
time). Other than that, still have a similar scenario with the
timing of the frontal boundary moving down mainly during the
afternoon and some showers in the vicinity at KCRP. However, did
delay the gusty winds at KALI and KCRP until early evening as
think the main gusts will be shortly after sunset when the
pressures really start to rise. Gusty north winds a good part of
the evening after FROPA with mainly SKC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  88  50  68  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
Victoria          68  85  45  66  42  /  10  10   0   0  10
Laredo            67  86  50  66  47  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             68  90  49  68  46  /  10  10   0   0  10
Rockport          72  83  52  66  52  /  10  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           65  85  45  67  44  /  10   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        69  91  50  69  47  /  10  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       73  84  55  67  56  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM

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