Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
850 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Convection is showing signs of redeveloping this evening. Radar
indicated light shra's across the NE CWA, and in addition, storms
in Mex are beginning to spread into far western Webb Co. Chance
pops are currently in the forecast for tonight which looks
reasonable given a very moist and unstable environment. The 00Z
CRP sounding had a 2.25 inch PWAT with a 5100J/kg CAPE. The
inhibiting factor progged for overnight will be an increasingly confluent
flow aloft. Thus, do not want to go any higher than 30 percent at
this time. Current forecast looks on track with no major changes
at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAF's.

AVIATION...

Convection across the area has settled down for now, but am
expecting redevelopment late tonight into Tue morning. Currently
have VFR conditions across S TX. Expecting MVFR CIGS to develop
overnight, mainly for ALI, VCT and CRP, then lift to VFR by mid
morning, except in and around sct shra/tsra's. Sfc winds will
generally be light and at times vrb due to a weak bdry meandering
across S TX through the TAF period. Could see some gusts to around
30-40kts due to storms late tonight into Tue.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

The remnant boundary of an early morning MCS is slowly
progressing across South Texas this afternoon. Boundary
interaction with the sea breeze has triggered convection across
the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains this afternoon. Convective
activity associated with the boundary interactions should diminish
this evening with the loss of diurnal warming. However, proximity
to a mid level s/w trough in combination with great moisture depth
and some left over instability may allow for additional isolated
to scattered showers to develop at times tonight through Tuesday.
However, guidance suites have handled today's MCS poorly and
overall forecast confidence is low. Max/min temps are strongly
dependent upon amount of precip and cloud cover.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...

First part of the rainfall forecast will be a bit of a challenge
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night), with the latter part of the
rainfall forecast a bit easier. The reason for the challenge is
where the boundary will be (if anywhere) Tuesday night and
Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF have the boundary nearly bisecting the CWFA
late Tuesday afternoon, with PWATs AOA 2 inches and good moisture
convergence. In most scenarios, this would mean a good chance for
convection in the late afternoon and evening. The issue/problem is
that the boundary is in our area now (which GFS seems to have a good
handle on), but additional convection could bring it farther south
for Tuesday than what the models have now (like what happened
overnight and this morning for areas north). Thus, will not totally
bite on the GFS solution but lean close to it for convection Tuesday
night and Wednesday. After that, things get a bit clearer as
Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to move toward the Southern
Mexican Coast (at this time forecast to make landfall south of
Tampico). There could be enough remnant moisture (i.e. not expected
to be tight enough) for some convection, mainly over the gulf waters
but did go with low chance POPs over the coastal counties (and lower
or no rain farther west and north). After that, rain chances will
continue to diminish, as the upper level high builds into Texas for
the weekend. Moisture then becomes quite limited, with maybe enough
moisture over the NE and gulfmex for an isolated shower or two.
However, prefer to keep a dry forecast for the weekend into Monday.

Concerning impacts (residual) from Franklin, it looks as it may be a
bit less than expected, but still some SCA sea heights likely over
the offshore gulf waters (and maybe SE nearshore). Rip current risk
will likely be high, and minor tidal overflow may be a little less
than expected (but still quite possible...too early to say none at
all). Finally, concerning temperatures, generally went with a blend
of a bias-consensus MOS and Superblend for high temperatures (with
coastal adjustments), and not too much change to the Superblend for
lows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  95  76  93  78  /  30  30  30  30  20
Victoria          77  92  75  93  76  /  30  30  30  30  20
Laredo            78 100  77  99  78  /  30  30  20  30  10
Alice             81  99  76  98  76  /  30  30  30  30  20
Rockport          83  92  78  92  81  /  30  30  30  30  20
Cotulla           76  96  76  99  76  /  30  30  10  20  10
Kingsville        81  98  77  98  77  /  30  30  30  30  20
Navy Corpus       84  92  81  92  81  /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
532 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-081045-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
532 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Today and Tonight.

Heat Advisory valid Today from Noon to 6 PM CDT for the counties
of Jim Wells, Kleberg, Nueces, San Patricio, Refugio, Bee, Live
Oak, and Goliad.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the southern Coastal
Waters until 9 AM CDT this morning.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents Today along Gulf facing
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across South Texas through Friday.  Severe thunderstorms are not
expected at this time.

Afternoon heat index values will be between 105 and 109 degrees this
week across much of the area. Heat advisories may also be needed
over parts of the region as the heat index climbs to or slightly
above 110 degrees.

A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist along Gulf
facing beaches on Tuesday. Increasing swells from Tropical Storm
Franklin may result in a greater rip current risk and the
possibility of minor tidal overflow by Thursday.

Small craft advisories will also likely be needed by Thursday as
seas increase across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

87/78

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
456 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

TXZ241-242-072245-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-
456 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JIM WELLS AND WEST
CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTIES...

At 456 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near La Gloria, or
near Premont, moving west at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Premont and La Gloria.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2741 9823 2737 9800 2726 9799 2726 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 088DEG 5KT 2728 9808

TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
906 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

TXZ239-080230-
Webb-
906 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WEBB
COUNTY...

At 906 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 14 miles north of Oilton to Rio Bravo.
The storms are nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Laredo, Rio Bravo, El Cenizo, Laredo International Airport, Ranchitos
Las Lomas, Mirando City, St Augustine High School South Laredo,
Laredo Community College, Oilton, United South High School and
Aguilares.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2726 9949 2730 9949 2731 9950 2730 9953
      2732 9954 2734 9951 2741 9949 2745 9950
      2749 9948 2750 9950 2750 9952 2751 9953
      2786 9886 2761 9880 2753 9880 2727 9928
      2727 9933 2732 9937 2726 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 149DEG 2KT 2766 9891 2737 9947

TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
935 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

TXZ239-080330-
Webb-
935 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WEBB
COUNTY...

At 934 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 10 miles east of Ranchitos Las Lomas to
near El Cenizo. Movement was west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms. Heavy rainfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
are also possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laredo, Rio Bravo, El Cenizo, Laredo International Airport, Unitec
Industrial Park, United South High School, Texas A&M International
University, Aguilares, Ranchitos Las Lomas, St Augustine High School
South Laredo, Doctors Hospital Of Laredo, Laredo Community College,
Laredo Country Club, Orvil, Oilton and Mirando City.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2727 9949 2730 9949 2731 9954 2734 9951
      2741 9949 2745 9950 2749 9948 2750 9950
      2750 9953 2757 9951 2761 9955 2760 9958
      2762 9958 2781 9924 2762 9880 2757 9880
      2727 9933 2732 9937 2726 9945 2726 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 106DEG 11KT 2765 9904 2734 9959

TE