Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
406 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Main weather concern will be the potential for strong to severe
convection the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery data shows upper low spinning to our
north and northeast. This has resulted in an active northwest flow
across South Texas the last couple of days. Daytime heating has
yielded MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 with little to no CIN.
Also, there is a pocket of effective bulk shear of 40 to 45 knots
over the southern Coastal Bend. This has supported some storm
organization and an isolated severe weather threat. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards with these storms.
Additional isolated activity will move southward into the northern
parts of the area as the afternoon progresses, with a strong to
marginally severe threat. Hi-res models generally weaken convection
between 00z and 03z with the loss of daytime heating.

Moisture does not scour out on Tuesday with PWs around 1.5 to 1.6
inches across eastern parts of the area. Again, daytime heating
may trigger some isolated convection as upper trough finally
pushes eastward. Low pops were retained over the Coastal Bend
into the Victoria Crossroads with only a slight chance of pops in
the afternoon.

Drier air finally builds into the region Tuesday night as trough
axis moves into the Deep South. No rain expected Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Offshore flow will persist during the mid week in wake of the
frontal boundary.  As upper level riding builds into the region
drier conditions will develop, with no mentionable rain chances
through the end of the work week.  Despite shortwaves moving down
across the region late in the week, moisture will remain too limited
across the region for convection to develop.  Onshore flow will
gradually return to the region Thursday night into Friday as surface
high pressure shifts east of the region. Moisture will gradually
increase over the weekend into early next week as the next upper
level trough digs into the Rockies, and isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Bend and nearshore
waters early next week. Temperatures will be near normal for the
time of year, with lows in the 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s,
warming into the upper 90s late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  90  72  92  71  /  40  20  10  10  10
Victoria          72  90  70  91  69  /  40  30  10  10  10
Laredo            75  95  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             74  93  70  94  69  /  30  20  10  10  10
Rockport          75  92  75  92  74  /  40  30  10  10  10
Cotulla           72  94  72  95  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        74  93  71  93  70  /  30  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       77  92  77  90  75  /  40  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TB/78...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-061015-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Today
mainly over the Coastal Bend and over the Victoria Crossroads.
Some storms may become strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

87/85

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W PETRONILA           27.67N  97.67W
06/05/2017                   NUECES             TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            IMAGES SUBMITTED OF POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF FM665 AND FM892

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1700219

HART

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
418 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

TXZ243-052200-
Nueces-
418 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY...

At 418 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Flour Bluff, or
11 miles east of Corpus Christi, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Padre Isles Country Club, Texas A&M
University Corpus Christi, Padre Balli Park, Bay Area Medical Center,
Waldron Field, Mustang Island State Park and Corpus Christi Naval Air
Station.

LAT...LON 2753 9725 2756 9723 2758 9725 2757 9726
      2756 9725 2754 9727 2768 9738 2780 9723
      2767 9706 2758 9713 2746 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 316DEG 24KT 2769 9725

TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
429 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

TXZ239-240-052230-
Webb-Duval-
429 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WEBB COUNTIES...

At 428 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Oilton, or 23
miles northwest of Hebbronville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oilton, Mirando City, Aguilares, Bruni, Ranchitos Las Lomas and
Realitos.

LAT...LON 2727 9910 2728 9918 2762 9923 2768 9900
      2736 9838 2732 9852 2734 9852 2734 9855
      2736 9856 2736 9859 2734 9859 2734 9862
      2736 9863 2735 9880 2727 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 308DEG 16KT 2755 9897

TE