Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
235 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Main concern is the convection late this afternoon and early this
evening (could make a last minute change before 330 PM). There are
strong to isolated severe convection going on in the EWX area,
primarily due to the frontal forcing as well as upslope flow along
the escarpment. As the storms move SE later this afternoon, they
will get into strong instability but the surface forcing will be
greatly diminished (front well north). Ergo, am expecting to have
some storms late this afternoon and into the evening, but everything
should taper off not too long after sunset since the daytime heating
driving the convection over our area will lose its heating source.
Basically, have chance POPs for this afternoon (continuing but
slight chance POPs all but extreme south (30 percent). Upper ridge
and drier air will be in place on Wednesday and most of Wednesday
night, so do not have rain mentioned on either period. Am going a
bit warmer than the previous forecast for each period, as with lack
of significant convection over the area tonight we probably will not
see a thunderstorm cool-down. Basically, going on the higher side of
guidance for temperatures.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Weak to moderate onshore flow with decreasing seas tonight. Most of
the convection should stay inland, but could scape areas this
evening closer to the Rockport-Port O'Connor area. Onshore flow
increases Wednesday night where could see borderline SCEC.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Upper level high pressure system is progged to shift east Thu with a
short wave approaching from the west. Low level moisture will be
sufficient, mainly across western half of CWA, for isol SHRA's.
Slightly deeper moisture and another more potent short wave is
progged for Fri, continuing the slight chc of convection. The 20
pops for Thu/Fri may be too high given a capping inversion that the
model soundings depict. Ridging Sat will lead to drier and warmer
conditions. A series of upper disturbances and sufficient moisture
will bring a slight chc Sun through Tue. The question through the
period is how strong the capping inversion will be. Mx temps are
expected to be near to slightly above normal with lows above
normal. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  83  70  82  69  /  20  10  10  10  10
Victoria          67  82  66  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  10
Laredo            69  87  69  86  69  /  20  10  10  20  10
Alice             69  85  67  85  66  /  30  10  10  20  10
Rockport          71  82  71  77  71  /  20  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           67  85  66  85  66  /  20  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        69  85  68  84  67  /  30  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       73  82  72  76  71  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1007 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121515-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
1007 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across South
Texas today. A few of these storms could produce wind gusts 40 mph
or higher or even small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GW/JV/MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1058 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ244-111630-
San Patricio-
1058 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO
COUNTY...

At 1057 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Portland,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Port Aransas, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Gregory, Ingleside
On The Bay and Corpus Christi North Beach.

LAT...LON 2782 9739 2784 9738 2783 9739 2785 9741
      2805 9725 2783 9710 2783 9713 2782 9714
      2782 9717 2776 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 235DEG 13KT 2785 9733

Wagner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
252 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ230-112015-
McMullen-
252 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCMULLEN COUNTY...

At 252 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Tilden, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central McMullen
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2820 9876 2843 9877 2843 9843 2820 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 269DEG 8KT 2833 9862

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
335 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ234-112100-
Victoria-
335 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY...

At 334 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Victoria,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Victoria, Guadalupe, Victoria Colony Creek Country Club, Dacosta,
Wood Hi, Bloomington, Victoria Detar Hospital North, Nursery,
Victoria Riverside Park, Placedo, Victoria College, Victoria Mall,
Saxet Lakes, Victoria Regional Airport, Telferner and Downtown
Victoria.

LAT...LON 2883 9671 2882 9672 2879 9669 2877 9670
      2876 9667 2865 9681 2863 9686 2859 9693
      2875 9717 2878 9716 2881 9719 2884 9719
      2901 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 295DEG 33KT 2876 9696

TMT