River Flood Warning 31, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
848 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A deep tap of Pacific moisture, enhanced by the remnants of Pilar
currently moving through central Mexico, is expected to affect the
western portions of the Brush Country through at least Tuesday.
PWATs per the CIRA TPW has averaged around 2.5 inches across this
same area. A seabreeze boundary along with a surface trough axis
were enhancing low level convergence and thus helping to aid the
convection in northwest Webb and western La Salle counties over
the past few hours. Continuous synoptic ascent is expected through
Tuesday morning across this area aided by a longwave trough axis
anchored across the intermountain west and northwest Mexico.
Subtle s/wvs will also be moving through the broad southwesterly
flow aloft.

Normally this would lead to the issuance of a flash flood watch
for Webb and La Salle counties. However, FFG values in this area
are quite high given the dry antecedent conditions. Also, the
current kinematic forcing from these two low level boundaries is
expected to weaken overnight. So while isolated flash flooding
will still be possible overnight, believe these other negative
factors will preclude the issuance of a watch right now.

Did bump up pops and adjust temps downward given the latest
observational trends across the western Brush Country. No other
significant changes are expected elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes are expected for the coastal waters. SCEC
conditions are expected this evening as the LLJ increases in
response falling pressure across Mexico. Seas will average around
3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  77  89  75  /  40  50  40  30  10
Victoria          74  89  74  90  72  /  20  40  20  20  10
Laredo            75  94  77  91  75  /  70  60  70  50  50
Alice             75  92  75  91  73  /  40  50  40  40  30
Rockport          80  89  79  88  78  /  20  50  30  30  10
Cotulla           74  92  75  91  73  /  80  70  80  70  50
Kingsville        77  93  76  91  75  /  40  50  40  30  20
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  88  79  /  30  50  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
515 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-261015-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
515 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the region today into tonight. Storms are not expected to
become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day through Friday across the Gulf Waters and much of South
Texas. A moderate to at times heavy rainfall threat could
materialize over the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

TMT/LB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
733 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

TXZ229-239-260100-
Webb-La Salle-
733 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 733 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Encinal, moving
north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Encinal and Callaghan.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2815 9917 2786 9917 2786 9950 2815 9950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 174DEG 10KT 2802 9935

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
817 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

TXZ229-260145-
La Salle-
817 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY...

At 817 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Woodward, or 9
miles west of Cotulla, moving north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, Millett, Gardendale and Woodward.

LAT...LON 2830 9911 2835 9939 2864 9940 2865 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 184DEG 21KT 2848 9938

MB