Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
754 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front just north of Lake Erie will continue to move
slowly south and is expected to cross the local area overnight
and early Monday. High pressure will build over the region
Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Thunderstorms have been confined mostly to two clusters,
the first skirting along the Lake Erie lakeshore counties and
the second in the southwestern counties of the forecast area from
around Findlay toward Mansfield. The atmosphere is a little
more stable farther east but given the convergence and the
pooling dew points in the vicinity of the front will continue
to mention a 30-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly before midnight. No other changes for the early evening
update.

Original pertinent "near term" discussion...
The cold front is a little more active north of the lake but
most of that activity will miss the area. Still counting on some
development in a few hours as the front finally moves into the
area. The front is very slow moving and not all that strong so
forcing at the surface is marginal at best. Have some CAPE of
around 1000J/KG but shear is also marginal. The guidance still
shows a broken line of showers/storms developing and then moving
across the area this evening. Coverage should be no more than
30 or 40 percent so that's what most of the area will get in the
forecast. QPF amounts should be less than a quarter inch so DO
NOT expect a renewal of the flooding that occurred last week.
The front will move southeast of the area by mid morning Monday.
There could be a few showers at the southeast periphery of the
area but the main show will be off to the east and south
tomorrow. Expect a period of cloudiness on Monday with the north
to northeast flow off of the the lake. High pressure will take
over during the afternoon and quiet weather will persist Monday
night as well. Surface dewpoints have snuck back into the middle
60s again but less humid weather is expected by the end of the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge is progged to move east across the forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will break down slightly enough to
allow a weak shortwave trough to rotate through the area Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday.  A weak low pressure system at the surface
will slide east with the shortwave with limited moisture associated
with it.  Fair weather will prevail with the surface high pressure
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon and then a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon increasing
to chance POPs Wednesday night into Thursday with the shortwave
trough.

Temperatures will gradually warm up through the period as a warm air
advection pattern develops.  Should see lower to middle 80s by
Wednesday and thursday and lows back to around 70 and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue to differ on weak upper level features that will be
dropping ESE across the eastern lakes Thu night thru Sun. With
models showing fairly decent moisture in the area will keep chc pops
going much of the time.

Temps should run fairly close to normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Will mention tempo thunder at KMFD, KCLE and KERI for the 00Z
update given the recent development of the storms early this
evening ahead of the weak cold front. Will use vicinity for the
thunder at KCAK and KYNG as things are a little more stable
farther east and not sure that the likelihood is as high.

There remains a stratocumulus field north of Lake Erie and it
still seems likely that MVFR ceilings and areas of IFR stratus
will develop across the area in the early morning hours on
Monday as weak cold advection develops behind the front. Some
fog/mist is likely as well. Not a lot of confidence on the
visibility forecast, it could be locally dense but the stratus
should inhibit widespread IFR visibilities.

Ceilings should improve to VFR Monday afternoon with some
clearing across the lakeshore counties by late afternoon as
subsidence increases.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Rather quiet week expected on the lake as winds remain 10 knots or
less through the forecast period.  Not expecting any small craft
advisories during this time period as surface weather systems
remain benign.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...DJB/Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
600 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-171000-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
600 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening. The greatest threat will be from damaging
straight line winds.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.28N 82.84W
07/16/2017  E0.50 INCH       SANDUSKY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.28N 82.84W
07/16/2017  E0.75 INCH       SANDUSKY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THOMPSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

OHZ010-011-020-170000-
Medina-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
738 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CUYAHOGA...
NORTHWESTERN MEDINA AND LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 737 PM EDT, a band of strong thunderstorms was located over
northwest Lorain county moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms along with frequent lightning and briefly heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Lorain, Elyria, Parma, Strongsville, Westlake, North
Ridgeville, Amherst, Grafton, Wellington, North Olmsted, Avon, Parma
Heights, Brook Park, Berea, Fairview Park, Middleburg Heights,
Olmsted Falls, Eaton and Oberlin.

LAT...LON 4139 8173 4109 8214 4125 8235 4130 8234
      4148 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 311DEG 13KT 4133 8223

Adams

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

OHZ008-018-019-170030-
Seneca-Huron-Sandusky-
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HURON...
EASTERN SENECA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES...

At 739 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Green
Springs, or 8 miles southeast of Fremont, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Clyde, Green Springs, Attica, Republic and Flat Rock.

Briefly heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4137 8299 4121 8267 4101 8291 4123 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 311DEG 13KT 4125 8300

Adams

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
838 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             NEW LONDON              41.08N 82.41W
07/16/2017  E0.75 INCH       HURON              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THOMPSON

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