Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
429 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across the Central Great Lakes will move east and pull
a cold front south across the area on Monday. Low pressure will
remain across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure expands from Ontario across the Mississippi Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection has developed rapidly over the last 2 hours along the
remnant boundary from the showers this morning. Thunderstorms have
been pulsing to this point and are struggling to get organized
except for one storm that seemed to take on a little bit of rotation
in an area of backed low level flow in northern Ashland County.
Skies have been clearing from Toledo into Michigan behind the
surface trough and have lowered pops along the lakeshore. The focus
late this afternoon will be from the area of ongoing thunderstorms
generally expanding south and east. The severe threat is expected to
be fairly isolated with a marginal threat of damaging wind gusts or
large hail if we get any strong enough cells to collapse. Factors
limiting severe potential include warm mid-level air aloft and
20-30 knots of effective shear. Axis of better shear is focused
across Lake Erie into PA where instability is limited. Storms
have been producing locally heavy rainfall but are moving just
enough that flooding should be limited to just ponding of water
while the storm is ongoing. Expect storm intensity to drop off
quickly as we lose diurnal support although a few showers may
linger along the boundary across the south. Dewpoints will
remain in the lower 60s overnight so have raised mins a couple
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A marginal amount of instability will re-develop on Monday ahead of
the front and have nudged highs up in the southeast. Will hold onto
a chance of thunderstorms as the front moves through.

Upper level trough will deepen across the Central Great Lakes late
Monday and linger across the Eastern Great Lakes through midday.
Cold advection ramps up on the back side of the system on Tuesday
and expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms with the cold
pool aloft. Some lake enhanced showers are even expect Tuesday night
into Wednesday as 850mb temps drop to around 4C. Highs each day will
range from the low 60s east to upper 60s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The everlasting upper level trough persists in the eastern United
States by mid week. Practically cut off low pressure system will
be encamped over the region as well and then will begin to eject
out to the northeast by the weekend. This will allow an upper
level high pressure ridge to build east over the forecast area by
Sunday. This will mean a return back to very warm temperatures
after a mid week cool down.

Weak surface low pressure and associated moisture will slowly move
east while yet another surface low pressure system moves into the
local area by Friday and Friday night. These two features will
keep an on and off again threat for showers and thunderstorms
across the area through Saturday. The activity will then shift
east of the area by Saturday night as an area of high pressure
builds into the area.

The high will then shift east of the forecast area by Sunday and
will be followed by strong warm air advection. This will plunge
the local area right back into the summer like temperatures;
especially in the western half of the area where highs will be in
the middle 80s and lows around 70. Further east could be warmer
than currently advertised if the high moves a bit faster east. At
any rate, a warmup is on the way.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning are beginning to exit to
the east at this time. A warm frontal boundary is lifting
northeast at this time causing dewpoint temperatures to increase
into the middle 60s along with air temperatures into the lower
80s. This should start to trigger some thunderstorm development
in the warm sector. Some cumulus cloud development is currently
taking place across the southern tier counties of the area. This
should expand north with time in the warmer air this afternoon.
Potential still exists for severe thunderstorms with a slight
risk extending across all areas in the forecast area except
Toledo where there is a marginal risk. Main threats will be
strong damaging winds and large hail. Once activity shifts
south of the area, conditions should go back to VFR through the
night into tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Winds will
gradually shift around to a northwest to northerly direction
with time overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible at times through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly increase later tonight and may briefly cause 3
to 4 foot waves and then the wind will diminish by morning. Winds
then gradually increase through the course of the day Monday out
of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 knots. May be close on small
craft advisory conditions. Better chance appears it will arrive
into Tuesday night as a north to northeast flow develops and
continues into Wednesday morning when the winds diminish and
become light and variable through Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
552 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-051000-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-
Marion-
552 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Low pressure will track east across the central Great Lakes today.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and
evening. There is a slight chance that some storms will become severe
with the greatest threat from damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011>014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-051000-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
552 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Low pressure will track east across the central Great Lakes today.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and
evening. There is a slight chance that some storms will become severe
with the greatest threat from damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A cold front will drop southeast across the area on Monday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front
during the afternoon. There is a chance that some storms will
approach severe limits with hail and gusty winds the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

OHZ010-019-020-029-030-042000-
Huron-Richland-Medina-Lorain-Ashland-
316 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HURON...
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND...WESTERN MEDINA...NORTHERN ASHLAND AND
SOUTHERN LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 316 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Savannah, or 10
miles northwest of Ashland, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Wellington, Lodi, New London, Creston, Chippewa Lake,
Savannah, Polk, Sullivan, Seville, Penfield, Greenwich, Westfield
Center, Spencer, Gloria Glens Park, Bailey Lakes, Burbank, Rochester,
Chippewa-On-The-Lake and Nova.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4089 8252 4108 8262 4124 8191 4099 8183
      4099 8213 4092 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 259DEG 29KT 4100 8243

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

OHZ029-030-038-042015-
Holmes-Richland-Ashland-
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RICHLAND...SOUTHERN
ASHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 338 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mansfield,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Ontario, Lexington, Loudonville, Bellville, Hayesville,
Butler, Perrysville, Lucas, Mifflin and Mohicanville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4063 8262 4067 8265 4067 8262 4071 8262
      4071 8267 4083 8262 4078 8213 4066 8212
      4057 8218 4055 8235 4055 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 285DEG 29KT 4073 8256

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

OHZ037-047-042045-
Morrow-Knox-
339 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORROW AND KNOX
COUNTIES...

At 339 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sparta, or 10
miles south of Mount Gilead, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica, Centerburg, Danville,
Chesterville, Sparta, Marengo, Fulton, Martinsburg and Bladensburg.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4028 8275
      4035 8275 4035 8286 4051 8282 4044 8218
      4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 271DEG 25KT 4041 8276

Sefcovic

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             SULLIVAN                41.03N 82.22W
06/04/2017  M0.50 INCH       ASHLAND            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IN THE SULLIVAN AREA REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

SEFCOVIC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

OHZ032-042100-
Stark-
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STARK COUNTY...

At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dalton, or 14
miles east of Wooster, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Massillon, Green, North Canton, Louisville, Minerva,
Brewster, Navarre, Waynesburg, East Sparta, Wilmot, Canal Fulton,
East Canton, Beach City, Meyers Lake, Hills And Dales, Robertsville,
Maximo, Perry Heights and North Lawrence.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4066 8165 4091 8164 4091 8142 4088 8109
      4073 8109 4072 8124 4065 8124 4066 8144
      4065 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 284DEG 34KT 4084 8165

Greenawalt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

OHZ021-022-042130-
Summit-Portage-
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTAGE AND NORTHEASTERN SUMMIT
COUNTIES...

At 449 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hudson, or 9
miles west of Ravenna, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Hudson, Twinsburg, Tallmadge,
Streetsboro, Macedonia, Garrettsville, Mantua, Stow, Aurora,
Brimfield, Munroe Falls, Atwater, Edinburg, Silver Lake, Windham and
Boston Heights.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4111 8155 4129 8147 4129 8100 4099 8100
      4099 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 284DEG 32KT 4121 8141

Greenawalt