Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Wisconsin will deepen as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes. The area of low pressure will approach Hudson Bay
early Wednesday morning. A cold front will move across the area
tonight but will stall near the Ohio River Valley early Wednesday.
This boundary will then wobble across the region later in the week
with several waves of low pressure tracking along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Winds will be the main story tonight as deepening low pressure
moves across the upper Great Lakes. 925mb winds of 60 to 70 knots
will move across the region. Unless we can get some stronger
convective showers we believe that only 60 to 70 percent of these
speeds will reach the surface. So that will give us winds speeds
that top out in the 50 to 55 mph range. However we are slightly
concerned that the downsloping southeasterly winds over NW PA
could cause some stronger gusts this evening. Since we are not
seeing any stronger winds that touch warning criteria across
Illinois to Indiana we have decided to hold off on any wind
upgrades.

Otherwise we will see a period of rain move across the area
through the evening. A strong cold front will move across the area
through the late evening into the overnight hours with showers
ending from west to east. There will be strong pressure rises in
its wake so we will have to monitor wind gusts. If these stronger
winds materialize we may end up needing to extend the wind
advisory.

It will be warm through the evening with a continued warm
southerly wind. As the cold front passes temperatures will fall
and should bottom out in the lower 30s at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will stall near or south of the Ohio River Valley
early Wednesday. This boundary will then wobble its way northward
into Wednesday night and become the track for areas of low
pressure to follow Wednesday night into Thursday night. Still a
bit of uncertainty where the heaviest swath of rainfall will be
Wednesday into Thursday but it is beginning to look like it will
be over northern Ohio into NW PA. Have QPF values of 1 to 1.25
inches possible. If this can occur it will be enough to generate
some minor flooding across the area. Area creeks and streams could
reach minor to moderate flood stages. Definitely something to look
at over the next couple days. High pressure will gradually take
control of the region on Friday with dry conditions anticipated.

Highs tomorrow will warm into the 40s areawide. Thursday looks to
be the warmest day of the short term with highs well into the 50s
at most locations. NW OH will be the exception since the frontal
boundary will likely stay south of this area. Cooler on Friday
with highs in the 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The GFS continues to show an overrunning situation setting up
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with a high off to the
northeast causing northeastern surface winds, which would keep the
cold air in place. While the ECMWF previously showed a significantly
different solution (no precipitation), it has now come into decent
agreement with the GFS. The ECMWF is about 6 to 12 hours faster with
the onset of precipitation, but the overall outcome between the two
models is similar. Mixed precipitation is looking more likely during
this time frame, including the possibility of freezing rain. Just
maintained chance PoPs for now as we will need to see continued
agreement between the two models for more than just one run.

Significant differences between the models continue from Sunday
onward. The GFS and ECMWF stall out the front near the Ohio River
Sunday. The ECMWF washes out the front Monday as surface high
pressure builds under the influence of an upper-level ridge across
the Ohio Valley. The GFS, on the other hand, brings the front back
north through the region as a warm front on Monday with
precipitation. It then brings a surface low through the Great Lakes
Monday night. The ECMWF also eventually brings a low through the
Great Lakes, but about 24 hours later.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Showers will continue through the first half of the TAF period,
with gusty winds and MVFR ceilings. Line of showers in Indiana
just ahead of the cold front will push east through the terminals
from 00Z-06Z. Some lightning is being reported with this line, but
did not include TSRA in any TAFs at this time. Winds may gust as
high as 45-50 kts ahead and just behind the front, with a
diminishing trend in winds/gusts from west to east behind the
front. Winds will become westerly through the morning hours, then
back southerly towards the end of the period in advance of the
next weather system.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely much of the time from Wed night through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale warning remains in effect until 4 AM tonight for all of Lake
Erie. Sustained southerly winds of 35 to 40 knots are expected, and
based on winds upstream, this looks to be a good bet.

Another low will track across the Central Lakes Wednesday night
through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed with
this system. Strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
Friday into Friday night before the next system arrives on
Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ012>014-089.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ010-011.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ020-021-031-038.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ017>019-
     027>030-036-037-047.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ022-023-032-033.
     High Wind Warning until midnight EST tonight for OHZ003-
     006>009.
PA...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001-002.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Mottice

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