Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will push across the area today. Lake
effect snow will move out over Lake Erie today before shifting
back on shore this evening into tonight and lingering through
the weekend. Arctic high pressure over the plains states will
spread across the Ohio Valley. A reinforcing cold front will drop
across the Great Lakes on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A general light snow will slide across the area associated with a
trough/weak cold front. An inch or so of snow is expected in most
areas, a couple of inches from around Route 30 south. Increased
the pops to definite "snow" in the forecast since it will snow
steadily through mid to late afternoon in most areas.

The lake effect snow bands have shifted north out over lake Erie
as the flow has backed to southwest ahead of the trough. There
will be a lull in the lake snow until late afternoon/early evening
when the flow begins to veer behind the trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into tonight we will see the synoptic light snow move off
to the east and the lake effect snow begin to move back on shore.
The main forecast challenge continues to be the intensity and
location of the lake effect snow bands, not only for tonight, but
through the weekend as well.

As the snow band moves back on shore there could be periods of
heavy snow. The band should be fairly slow moving, so it could
drop several inches of snow in just a few hours. The models
continue to hint at a band extending along the I-90 corridor
across far eastern Cuyahoga into Geauga County, so we will keep a
close eye out for possible advisory criteria in this area.

Snow will continue across the primary Snowbelt Friday as the upper
level trough lingers over the region. The snow will begin to
diminish Friday night/Saturday as drier air moves in.

Another trough swinging through the region starting Saturday night
looks to bring more in the way of lake effect snow and perhaps
just a bit of more widespread synoptic snow showers. Expect some
scattered lake effect snow shower activity to continue into Sunday
before a surface high moves in from the south Sunday night
bringing the snow showers to an end.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal flow will get established during the period resulting in
moderating temperatures. As is usually the case with this type of
pattern the models have differences on the timing and track of the
waves moving across the CONUS. The surface ridge will be east of
the area by Monday morning allowing warmer southerly flow to
return. Will try to keep Monday dry but some warm air advection
precip is possible by Monday night. Precip chances will increase
on Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the region. The models
show low pressure development over the Plains on Tuesday. The GFS
takes this system north of the area Tuesday night and has a cold
front across the area at 12z Wednesday. The ECMWF is showing
stronger development at the surface and is slower with the front.
Thinking right now is that we switch from snow to rain sometime
Tuesday as readings push into the 40s. Will go ahead and linger
the precip into Wednesday which is a compromise between the two
models. The precip will probably end Wednesday before it gets cold
enough for a switch back to snow. Have used a blend of guidance
temps for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Surface low pressure will slide by to the east but remain well
south of the forecast area. Snow extending well north from the low
is spreading east across the area occasionally dropping
visibilities down to one mile or less at times. Ceilings will
bounce between 2500 feet to 700 feet through the rest of the
afternoon hours. Gradual improvement in conditions will take
place from west to east as the areal snow transitions back to lake
effect at Erie. Band of snow over the lake will shift south across
Erie and then become multibanded through the rest of the night
into tomorrow. Winds will be 10 knots or less over the area except
slightly higher at Erie.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Sunday in the snowbelt from lake effect snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have come down and have gone ahead and ended the Gale. Will
put up small crafts for areas east of the Islands. Winds will
remain westerly into Saturday night. A trough will cross the lake
at that time causing the flow to become northwest. Will likely
need small crafts most of the time on eastern Lake Erie. By early
Monday a ridge will have moved across the lake finally returning
the flow to a southerly direction. Increasing south winds are then
expected through the end of the period.

Given the cold weather and diminishing winds the next couple of
days...expect a lot of ice formation on the lake especially in the
western basin and near shore.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001-
     002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ144-
     145.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Mottice
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Kubina

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

PAZ001-002-060845-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
338 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ003-060845-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD-
338 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK ON SHORE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-060845-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
338 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-060845-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
338 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ICE ADVISORY FOR RAPID ICE GROWTH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ICE ADVISORY FOR RAPID ICE GROWTH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1011 AM EST THU JAN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             SPRINGBOR 3NW           41.82N  80.43W
01/05/2017  M6.8 INCH        CRAWFORD           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1247 PM EST THU JAN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     SNOW             FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
01/05/2017  E0.5 INCH        HANCOCK            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVIEST SNOW WAS AROUND 1130AM.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EST THU JAN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     SNOW             MANSFIELD               40.76N 82.53W
01/05/2017  M0.5 INCH        RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
223 PM EST THU JAN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             3 N MANSFIELD           40.81N 82.53W
01/05/2017  M0.5 INCH        RICHLAND           OH   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MANSFIELD AIRPORT

&&

THOMPSON

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