Special Marine Warning 41, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad trough across the lower Great Lakes will linger into
Monday afternoon. High pressure will then be able to build
across the region and bring lower humidity for the first part of
the work week. The next cold front will move northwest to
southeast across the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A very humid airmass is in place with an upper level trough
swinging through the Great Lakes. A nearly stationary front is
draped from northwest PA west-southwestward to near Akron then
westward to near the Findlay area. The only real noticeable
difference along this front remains the light northerly winds on
the north side and the southwesterly winds south of the front.
There continues to be no noticeable difference in temperatures
or dewpoints across this front. For this reason, forcing along
this stationary front will be weak.

Some marginal instability has developed across western Ohio
early this afternoon. A few storms have developed along the
front near and southeast of Findlay as of 3 PM, but the storms
remain weak with only heavy rain. As we head deeper into the
afternoon and evening hours we will see storms become more
widespread along this boundary. This will be thanks to a 700mb
short-wave trough moving through and greater instability (on the
order of 1000-1200 J/KG MLCAPE).

Additionally, we will likely see some storms move southeast into
the area from Lower Michigan. These storms are forming along
another weak boundary in that area and should maintain
themselves as they head southeast into northwest Ohio, likely
after 4 to 5 pm.

Overall parameters for severe weather this afternoon and evening
continue to be marginal at best. The 0-2 KM shear is only
around 15 knots with 20-30 knots of 0-6 KM shear. Low and mid-
level lapse rates are around 7 C/KM. This suggests that multi-
cell clusters will be the primary form of convection. With this
we would expect any storm that is able to strengthen enough to
be capable of producing gusty winds, some hail (generally less
than 1 inch), and very heavy rainfall. Not out of the question
that a storm or two could become severe.

The threat for showers and storms will come to and end from west
to east this evening into tonight. We could still see a few
lingering showers continue through the overnight hours across
far northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. One last
shortwave trough will move through the area Monday. This could
trigger a few more showers and storms throughout the afternoon
hours, though coverage is not expected to be too great thanks to
a large capping inversion that will be in place. The best
chance will be across eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania. It may
just be more showers than anything on Monday with only a slight
chance for a few rumbles of thunder.

Highs tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 70s. High
pressure starts moving in from the west Monday night and will
set the stage for dry weather with lower humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cooler conditions in the wake of another front will be in place on
Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north. Wrap around
moisture and diurnal heating will keep skies in the east partly
cloudy with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s. Western areas
will not cool as much and will experience more sun so highs closer
to 80 are likely.

Surface high pressure builds overhead Tuesday night then southeast
on Wednesday. At same time a ridge will build aloft before being
suppressed by the next trough approaching the Great Lakes region.
Wednesday will trend warmer as the flow shifts around to the
southwest with temperatures rebounding back up to the lower and mid
80s. Delayed the next threat of showers and storms until late
Wednesday night into Thursday as the front slowly moves south into
the area. Moisture advection from the southwest with the front
sinking down from the north will provide a favorable opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface stationary front still progged to settle in across the area
by Friday morning.  Surface low pressure is progged to move east
across the Tennessee Valley region to the Carolina coast by Saturday
night.  The storm system will have some pretty good moisture
associated with it but the bulk of the moisture is expected to remain
well south of the forecast area.  A weak area of high pressure will
build east across the area Saturday night into Sunday.  Warm air
advection ahead of the low pressure system will give way to some
cooler air as the low pressure moves southeast of the area and high
pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the area.
A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions are expected outside of storms with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected in any thunderstorm. Storms can
contain strong and variable winds. Most convection should be
done in the west by 00Z and the east by 02Z or so. KERI could
see a few lingering showers through the night. Some fog will
likely develop tonight along with low ceilings. There may be a
brief break of VFR conditions by late morning before afternoon
CU develop and everywhere returns to MVFR CIGs. This should
happen by 15-16Z tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in early morning fog/mist may continue during
the first half of the week. Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold
front Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weakly defined cold front across central lower Michigan will move
south across Lake Erie overnight with a secondary cold front pushing
south across the lake Monday night. Winds will increase to 10-15
knots out of the west northwest tonight. Winds will shift to the
north Monday evening and increase to 15-20 knots. Given the onshore
flow will be close to needing a Small Craft Advisory Monday night.

High pressure will build in from the north on Tuesday with winds
shifting to the northeast and gradually decreasing to 10 knots or
less late. Good marine conditions expected Wednesday with light
winds shifting around to the southwest. Another cold front will push
south across the lake Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...KEC/Lombardy

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