Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
908 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across northwest Ohio will move to the Appalachians
by daybreak. An upper level trough will persist across the area
into the middle of the week. High pressure will gradually build
east into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front
should push into the area by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cleared. Will continue
to keep at least a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast until the front is east of the area. At 9 PM the
front seemed to be from near Sandusky southwest to near Findlay.
It will until the pre-dawn hours for the front to move east of
the forecast area. Will take a look at temperatures with a quick
update on toward 1030 PM. No other changes for the evening
update.

Previous Discussion...
Convergence along a prefrontal trough has moved eastward with
outflow that was generated by the thunderstorms across the
eastern CWA. Convergence near and ahead of the front has drifted
into NW OH. This should continue to move eastward through the
evening under limited instability. We will monitor it as it
drifts eastward.

So after some evening thunderstorms we should transition to
scattered showers before drying out from west to east through
sunrise. As the drier air arrives it will allow temperatures to
drop lower than the last couple nights. Lows should dip into the
lower to middle 60s. Coolest across the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will linger across the region into the
middle of the week. This as a couple ripples of jet energy pass
through it. So expect to see at least some scattered showers
Monday through Tuesday evening. These chances should shift
eastward with the trough on Wednesday as surface high pressure
moves into Ohio. There may be enough instability across the area
MOnday afternoon to generate a few rumbles of thunder.

It will be cooler through the short term with temperatures
running near to slightly below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fairly zonal upper flow shown for Thu that will transition into a LW
trough that digs into the upper midwest by Sun. Think surface high
pressure and lack of upper support should limit coverage of possible
convection Thu but cold front slowly crossing area Fri into Sat
should provide the focus for more widespread activity. Increased
support from nearby upper trough will probably produce sct shra for
Sun with daytime heating.

Temps should warm Thu into Fri to be a little above normal then
trend cooler Sat thru Sun as cold front passes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front almost east of the area with ongoing convection
generally east of a KCLE-KMFD line. Expect convection to
decrease through the evening hours. Mainly VFR overnight however
do expect some patchy fog development inland areas. Did bring
fog into KMFD after 06z but for now left it out elsewhere.
Monday mostly VFR however there will be a trough aloft across
the area which will support convective cumulus cigs around bkn-
ovc045-050 through much of the day. Could also see a few
showers but again for now have left out.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible at times Tues thru Fri in sct shra
and a few tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds 10 to 20 knots ahead of the cold front will shift a little
more toward the west tonight while speeds diminish a few knots. A
series of reinforcing cold fronts/troughs will move se across the
lake Mon into Tue veering winds to the west, maybe WNW for a while.
There may be periods where winds of 15 to 20 knots could produce
near SCA conditions.

High pressure will spread ne into the lake Wed to calm the winds.
The high will shift off to the east by Thu to allow a warm front to
lift across the lake and result in south winds of about 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Mullen
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Adams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
911 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-
200115-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
911 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ014-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-200115-
Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
911 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

High water will linger in some areas tonight from heavy rain during
the day Sunday. Never drive into flooded roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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