Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
104 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure over the nations midsection will push
an occluded front across the area today with a secondary cold
front this evening. Blustery and cooler weather will follow. Another
strong low pressure system will move from the Mississippi
Valley to the Great Lakes late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nice line of gusty showers associated with the occluded front
working across the I-71 corridor at the moment (1030 AM). Gusts
30-40 knots have been common. Will continue to monitor as the
line moves east. Plenty of low level shear but little cape at
the moment as there is a lot of shower activity preceding the
line. Better chance this afternoon as the front moves toward the
OH PA border and east and encounters afternoon heating (what
little there may be). Wind fields aloft are progged to diminish
across northwest Ohio today and the gustiness should hold at 35
knots or so in the clearing behind the front this afternoon
across NW Ohio. Made some minor changes to the hourly/high
temperature forecast based on the current trends.

Original "Today" discussion...
Regional radar showing scattered showers over mainly the
western half of the area. More widespread precip continues to
develop over Indiana ahead of the cold front. Seeing just a few
lightning strikes the past hour. IR imagery showing warming tops
so expecting mainly showers the remainder of the night. Will
however...leave a mention of thunder in during the daylight
hours as the front arrive. Also expect the precip to expand in
coverage with the return of the sun. Have gone ahead and gone 80
percent of better precip chances most of the area today. The
front should cross the I-75 corridor around 12z and be into
western PA by late afternoon. The precip will end for a few
hours behind the front. Later in the day instability showers
will begin to develop in the cold air advection. Will try to
time the main band of precip through the area and then go with a
generic chance wording for late in the day. As has been the
case the past couple of days...the temperature forecast is a
challenge. Have ended up staying close to guidance. Will make
last second adjustments as needed.

Have also taken a close look at winds today. Speeds will
increase this afternoon behind the front. It looks like we will
top out below advisory criteria but gusts to 40 mph are
likely...especially over the western end of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a return to late March weather during the period
as the strong low passes to the north and the area gets into
cold air advection flow pattern. The best push of cold air will
arrive late tonight into Tuesday and expect to see a lot of
instability showers as 850 mb temps go from plus 17 this morning
to neg 2 to 4 by 18z Tuesday. The showers will be most
widespread downwind of the lake and will go the highest pops
there. The showers will continue into Wednesday by but by
tomorrow evening should be mainly confined to areas downwind of
the lake. Will try for dry weather all areas Wednesday
afternoon. The models are in fair agreement with the low set to
move up the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week. Precip
chances will increase Wednesday night with likely or higher pops
needed for both Thursday and Thursday night. There will be a
sharp cutoff to the precip shield on the north side but right
now it looks like that line will be north of our area. Don't see
a need for any thunder mention as the local area will be on the
cold side of the storm. Have stayed close to guidance for
temps. Highs Tuesday... Wednesday and Thursday will all average
about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will be moving across the region on Friday
with periods of showers anticipated. It will be wet but the amount
of convection is uncertain. So at this point we are not overly
concerned about flooding. The low will be very slow moving so it
should impact the are into at least Sunday morning. High pressure
should then start to take control Sunday night into Monday with
drier conditions. Until then expect cloudy and cooler conditions
with the showers.

Temperatures will be cooler through the long term but it will feel
worse since we had such a warm spring so far. Expect that most
locations will be 5 to 8 degrees below seasonal averages with highs
in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Line of showers and storms just east of a KCLE to KCAK line as
of 17Z. Expect these storms to impact KYNG and KERI in the next
couple hours. Strong west winds expected to at least 35-40kt.
Potential for a severe storm as well with gusts in excess of 50
knots. Behind the line of precipitation, conditions are
clearing to VFR with gusty southwest winds up to 30 knots.
Additional showers are possible later this evening into tonight,
but confidence is too low to include anything more than a
PROB30 across the western TAF sites for now. Expect low end VFR
or high end MVFR conditions outside of showers to continue
through the TAF forecast period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible tonight
through Tuesday night and again Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front lingers near the south shore of Lake Erie early this
morning  allowing a easterly wind to persist. This has helped to
raise water levels across the western basin. However the front
should lift north of the lake through sunrise allowing water levels
to drop back to more normal levels. We will then monitor wind speeds
and issue small craft advisories at some point this afternoon.
Current thinking is that the stronger winds will not occur until 2
pm or later. Will let later shifts take a look at this potential and
evaluate any gale possibilities. At this point we think that 30
knots seems reasonable and with a short window of higher possible
late tonight through Tuesday morning.  Small craft advisories become
a definite by this evening for the entire lakeshore.

Winds decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure briefly
controls the region. We will then need to monitor for high water
levels across the western basin of Lake Erie again Thursday night
into Friday as another strong area of low pressure moves into the
central Great Lakes. Easterly winds look like they could be a bit
stronger with this storm system.&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>145.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Lombardy/Mullen

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1053 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

OHZ010-011-019-020-029>031-038-011530-
Holmes-Huron-Richland-Medina-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Ashland-Wayne-
1053 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN HURON... NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND...WESTERN CUYAHOGA...WESTERN
MEDINA... ASHLAND...WESTERN WAYNE...LORAIN AND NORTHWESTERN HOLMES
COUNTIES...

At 1047 AM EDT, radar indicated the line of heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Avon
Lake to near New London to near Bellville. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with the heavy showers and
storms along with Locally heavy rains .

LAT...LON 4067 8254 4101 8250 4128 8238 4129 8234
      4136 8235 4146 8230 4154 8201 4153 8172
      4154 8170 4094 8205 4063 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 273DEG 24KT 4160 8209 4101 8244 4069 8247

Thompson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

OHZ011>013-020>022-031-032-038-011630-
Holmes-Summit-Geauga-Portage-Lake-Stark-Medina-Cuyahoga-Wayne-
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE... WESTERN GEAUGA...CUYAHOGA...EASTERN
MEDINA...SOUTHWESTERN LAKE... WESTERN STARK...SUMMIT...EASTERN WAYNE
AND NORTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 1159 AM EDT, radar indicated The line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms were located from Cleveland to near Millersburg.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers and
Isolated thunderstorms along with locally heavy rains.

LAT...LON 4060 8189 4135 8183 4153 8176 4153 8172
      4175 8136 4179 8121 4142 8135 4065 8142
      4066 8146 4064 8165 4060 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 258DEG 20KT 4194 8154 4136 8175 4069 8181

Thompson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

OHZ012>014-021-022-032-038-089-011730-
Holmes-Summit-Geauga-Portage-Lake-Stark-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Ashtabula
Inland-
1245 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTAGE...GEAUGA... EASTERN LAKE...STARK...EASTERN SUMMIT...WESTERN
ASHTABULA AND EASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 1245 PM EDT, radar indicated THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Geneva to
Millersburg. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with the line and
locally heavy heavy rains.

LAT...LON 4067 8170 4067 8165 4080 8165 4179 8122
      4193 8076 4150 8094 4150 8101 4137 8100
      4065 8130 4066 8146 4063 8167 4045 8167
      4044 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 250DEG 25KT 4177 8117 4051 8171

Thompson

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