Areal Flood Warning 29, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the lower lakes this evening
dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. Lake effect
snow showers will develop Sunday and linger into Monday when
high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure system just SW of FDY with Current ht falls near CLE.
Low is forecast to track dragging arctic front across the area.
The arctic front should be SW of the forecast area toward
midnight local. There are some thunderstorms with the system but
the best dynamics and shear is south of the warm front.

Kept the flood watch up basically south of a YNG to FDY line.
The area has received between 1 1/2 to 2 inches with a another
inch or so possible this evening.

Pushed back wind advisory until 7pm.  Warm front just now into
Central Ohio so the winds have not mixed down yet. Once the
arctic front moves through the NW winds will increase to 25 to
35 mph with higher gusts.

Rain will move east of the forecast area overnight. Could see
some snow in the higher elevations of the snowbelt late tonight,
with a dusting or so possible by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The 850 MB temps plunge to -8c by daybreak but by then moisture
is shifting east. Best chance for lake effect snow will be late
Sunday into Sunday night when 850 temps dip to -12c and an upper
level short wave moves across the Eastern Lakes. Still looks to
be below advisory criteria.

The short term begins Monday with high pressure in the over the
lower Ohio Valley. Flow will be off Lake Erie and 850mb temps -7C
although shear will be increasing.  Would expect we begin with snow
showers but they will be decreasing quickly as dry air and high
pressure continue to build and winds back.  Elsewhere expect
increasing sunshine. The next chance for precip will come Tuesday
evening and Tuesday night as another cold front moves through the
area. Will hold precip off until after 00Z Wednesday and begin with
a chance of either rain or snow with highest chance northeast. After
about 3Z will change precip to all snow but will decrease pops as
colder but drier air moves in which should hamper any significant
lake effect.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday.  Highs in
the 30s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not many changes to long term.  It looks like we will be able to
sneak in a dry and quiet Thanksgiving and also a dry Friday.  Low
pressure will move southeast across the northern lakes Friday night
into Saturday.  The usual timing and placement differences are
present in the 12z guidance. But...it looks it could precip at some
point. Will go ahead with chance pops both periods with best chances
across the northern end of the area.  Precip type remains in
question Friday night but Saturday should see all rain.  Given model
differences going no higher than low chance pops seems reasonable.
Thursday will be a chilly day but temps will warm back into the 40s
for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Low pressure centered near IND will move across NW OH and then
NE over Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Warm front still
near the Ohio River so winds not mixing down to surface so with
925mb winds 40-45kt could see some llws early this afternoon.
Low will track East across Lake Erie dragging an arctic front
across the forecast area. Will be tsra ahead of the front.
Widespread IFR will envelop the area. Behind the front NW winds
25g35kt will develop. Front should be move east of the forecast
area toward midnight local.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues through Sunday and into Monday
across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A brief period
of Non-VFR possible Tuesday night all areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue with the gale warning as it is.  Low pressure will
move northeast of the lake this evening.  Winds behind the low will
increase out of the northwest to 35-40 knot gales this evening
continuing through the night and into Sunday morning. Winds will
remain out of the northwest through Sunday night before backing to
southwest by Monday. Wind speeds will remain 25 to 30 knots Sunday
afternoon through much of Sunday night.  Wind speeds will remain at
or above 20 knots much of the period Monday through Tuesday before
dropping back to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     OHZ009>014-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for OHZ017-020>023-
     027>033-036>038-047.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     OHZ003-006>008-017-018.
PA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJB/Kubina
MARINE...TK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

OHZ003-006-191015-
Lucas-Wood-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-191015-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Lake effect snow showers are expected to develop Sunday as much
colder air moves over the lake. The lake effect could linger into
Monday producing some accumulating snow in the snowbelt.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-191015-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-191015-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ009-010-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-191015-
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

There is the possibility for damaging thunderstorm winds this
afternoon and early evening ahead of the cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ007-008-017-018-191015-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
504 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

There is the possibility for damaging thunderstorm winds ahead of the
cold front this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.