Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
322 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will linger north of the region through early
Saturday as the remnants of Harvey move through the Tennessee
Valley. A cold front will approach from the northwest this
weekend, then become stationary into early next week. Another
cold front is expected to approach the region during the second
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QLCS near the Midlands/CSRA will continue to progress north
and east through the rest of the afternoon, eventually meeting
up with the sea breeze near I-95. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
sufficient instability and shear for organized convection
capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across inland areas through
early evening. Overnight rain chances will diminish but can't
rule out at least a few showers mainly toward the coast closer
to the better instability as some upper forcing lingers across
the area. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s inland to
the upper 70s along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The remnant low pressure formerly known as Harvey will
continue to travel northeast away from the forecast area as a
stalled front persists across North Carolina. A cold front will
approach the area from the northwest. Continued southwest flow will
maintain ample moisture over the region as the upper level trough
approaches from the west. Divergence overhead will contribute to the
formation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
land zones, with the best potential shifting offshore into the
coastal waters late in the day. Temperatures through the period will
be within 1-2 degrees of normal.

Sunday: A relatively drier day is anticipated, as surface pressures
climb slightly while upper-level Atlantic ridging creeps closer to
the forecast area. While the cold front is anticipated to remain
near or over the forecast area, notably less impressive instability
and shear parameters will persist over much of the area. At this
time, the majority of precipitation appears to remain offshore or
near the coast. Near-normal temperatures are anticipated.

Monday: Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend into the
forecast area as some deeper moisture manages to return overhead and
peak surface-based CAPEs rebound somewhat compared to Sunday. The
latest guidance does depict weak upper level convergence persisting
for much of Monday, implying that weak atmospheric descent will aid
in limiting convective coverage. This is supported by lower-mid
level omega fields in several models exhibiting sinking motion.
Despite this, showers and thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled
out, and slight chance POPs will continue to serve the forecast
well, with best potential remaining near the coast. Near-normal
temperatures will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled pattern is expected as a large mid/upper level trough
expands over the Central U.S. A cold front associated with this
feature should approach our area midweek. With southerly flow ahead
of the front and increasing moisture, there should be increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect a line of storms to push east toward the terms later this
afternoon into early evening. Confidence is higher in more
significant impacts at KSAV than at KCHS. Timing at this time
should be mainly 21-23Z at KSAV and 22-24Z at KCHS. IFR or
worse conditions are possible but maintained no lower than MVFR
for now. MVFR cigs could develop late tonight but confidence is
low at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible due to direct impacts from showers/thunderstorms, mainly
each afternoon/evening, with greatest chances Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: South winds will veer to the southwest
overnight. Speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft
nearshore waters and 3-4 ft offshore waters. A line of strong to
possibly severe tstms could move into the coastal waters by late
afternoon or early evening. These storms will pose a risk for
winds >34 kt with low vsbys in locally heavy rainfall and
cloud-to-water lightning. Special Marine Warnings may be needed.

Saturday through Tuesday: Coastal waters will remain primarily under
the influence of Atlantic high pressure, generating S to SW winds
through early Sunday, peaking 15-20 knots. Latest guidance suggests
winds may briefly veer NW Sunday morning for a few hours as a nearly-
stationary front tips into the coastal waters. Initiation of a
seabreeze circulation combined with the dissipation of the front
should permit the winds to back SW or S again by Sunday afternoon.
Generally southerly flow is expected to persist into Tuesday, but
conditions look favorable for a weak landbreeze to turn light winds
offshore for a few hours Monday morning. Seas ranging 2-4 feet
initially will gradually subside to 1-2 ft by Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC/RJB
MARINE...JMC/RJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
304 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-021915-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
304 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms
are expected to impact much of Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. There is a potential
for severe thunderstorms to develop with damaging winds being the
primary hazard. Frequent cloud to ground lighting and locally heavy
rainfall are also likely. The risk for severe thunderstorms will be
the greatest between 2 pm and 8 pm. For mariners, strong to severe
thunderstorm could move into the coastal waters by late afternoon and
persist through the evening hours.

People across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia should
continue to monitor weather conditions throughout the day. Be
prepared to take action should watches and warnings be issued for
your area. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, TV or your
local news source for the latest information from the National
Weather Service.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

GAZ101-SCZ042-047-011900-
Effingham-Inland Jasper-Hampton-
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON
AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 231 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Shawnee, or 7 miles north of Springfield,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Ridgeland, Furman, Garnett, Shawnee, Pineland, Tillman, Tarboro and
Robertville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8145 3253 8148 3274 8108 3247 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 243DEG 36KT 3248 8136

ECT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

GAZ100-101-011915-
Bulloch-Effingham-
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH AND EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES...

At 250 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Stilson, or 8 miles northeast of Bay, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Springfield, Rincon, Guyton, Pineora, Egypt, Marlow, Shawnee and
Stillwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8154 3238 8164 3253 8134 3231 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 243DEG 29KT 3232 8150

ECT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
405 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

GAZ100-101-012045-
Bulloch-Effingham-
405 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH AND EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES...

At 405 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Stilson, or 9 miles northeast of Bay, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Springfield, Bay, Guyton, Pineora, Egypt, Marlow, Shawnee and
Stillwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 8138 3250 8124 3237 8118 3224 8143
      3224 8144 3221 8157 3230 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 228DEG 31KT 3232 8147

JMC