Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will drop into the area Tuesday, lingering into Thursday
before lifting back north. High pressure will rebuild Friday through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At mid afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
across the forecast area but updraft strength has generally
been unimpressive since the onset. Scattered showers and tstms
will persist mainly inland from beaches and barrier islands
through late afternoon. The overall severe threat is low, however
stronger storms may produce some gusty winds given the decent
deep layered wind fields and swift storm motions.

Tonight: Diurnal convection is expected to diminish this evening.
Overnight, deeper moisture and some broad upper difluence will
gradually increase from west to east. Lower level convergence is
forecast to increase across southeast SC and to the north of
I-16 in GA as a cold front approaches northwest Ga late. We
maintained chance POPs overnight in this region with much
uncertainty on how the coverage of nocturnal convection plays
out given the myriad of mesoscale boundaries that will linger
across the this evening. The GFS was a wet outlier and we leaned
toward a persistence forecast overall. Mild overnight minimum
temps will be in the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s coast. Low
level wind fields appear too strong for any fog concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level troughing will prevail over the East Coast. At the
surface, a cold front will approach from the north on Tuesday, then
linger nearby as a stationary front until Thursday. Deep moisture
will be in place with PWATs ~2.2" each day. Lift will be in the form
of the front and a series of shortwaves moving through. The end
result will be a wet pattern with plenty of showers and
thunderstorms. Instability is not impressive, especially for this
time of year, so the severe risk will be low each day. The main
threat will be heavy rainfall due to the weak mid-level winds. More
so Tuesday and Wednesday due to the proximity of the front to our
area. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal each day due
to abundant clouds and a high areal coverage of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper ridge will gradually strengthen over the eastern
United States late week through the weekend while Bermuda high
pressure strengthens to our east. Diurnal convection will become
less numerous as time wears on. Meanwhile high temps will
gradually increase.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 18z Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms have been skirting the terminals and direct
impacts were looking less and less likely at 1930Z. Outside of
convection, gusts around 20 knots have been occurring in south
to southwest flow this afternoon. There could be another uptick
in showers and isolated tstms later tonight and on Tuesday
morning, confidence too low for any TAF inclusions at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and tstms may occasionally affect
the terminals, with temporary visibility restrictions the primary
concern.

&&

.MARINE...
We have seen borderline SCA conditions along the Charleston
County coast this afternoon with elevated platforms and some
intra-coastal sites reporting 25 knots occasionally. Models
indicate 1000 MB geostrophic flow peaking late this afternoon
but still remaining fairly constant near 25 knots overnight. We
have conditions just below SCA levels overnight along the central
SC coast with 20 knots and seas 4-5 ft. If conditions warrant,
a SCA may still be required. Elsewhere, southwest flow will remain
elevated overnight in the 15 knot range with seas 3-4 ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: A cold front will move over the area from
the north on Tuesday, then linger nearby as a stationary front until
Thursday, finally transitioning into a warm front and moving back to
the north on Friday. Atlantic high pressure will build Friday
through early next week. Winds will generally stay below 10 kt
through Thursday, perhaps increasing into the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>049-051-052-080800-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

SCZ050-080800-
Charleston-
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

GAZ101-SCZ042-047-048-051-071945-
Effingham-Inland Jasper-Coastal Jasper-Hampton-Beaufort-
300 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...
BEAUFORT...HAMPTON AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 300 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Ebenezer, or 8 miles east of Springfield,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Beaufort, Ridgeland, Springfield, Clarendon, Rincon, Grahamville,
Ebenezer and Coosawhatchie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8122 3237 8138 3275 8103 3248 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 228DEG 33KT 3242 8117

ECT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
358 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

SCZ042-043-047>049-051-072045-
Coastal Colleton-Inland Jasper-Coastal Jasper-Hampton-Beaufort-Inland
Colleton-
358 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT...HAMPTON...
COLLETON AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 358 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Yemassee, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Walterboro, Yemassee, Clarendon, Coosawhatchie, Gardens Corner,
Grays, Ritter and Hendersonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8090 3272 8108 3305 8075 3268 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 224DEG 23KT 3270 8087

ECT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
518 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

GAZ101-116-118-SCZ047-051-072200-
Effingham-Inland Chatham-Inland Bryan-Inland Jasper-Coastal Jasper-
518 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BRYAN...EFFINGHAM...
CHATHAM AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 517 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms near Bloomingdale, or 7 miles northwest of
Pooler, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Savannah, Pooler, Springfield, Jasper, Rincon, Port Wentworth,
Hardeeville and Bloomingdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8149 3224 8143 3228 8145 3255 8118
      3233 8093 3230 8096 3231 8100 3228 8100
      3202 8139 3216 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 231DEG 26KT 3221 8130

ECT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
718 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

GAZ114-115-080000-
Evans-Tattnall-
718 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EVANS AND TATTNALL
COUNTIES...

At 718 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles southwest of Mendes, or 11 miles south of
Reidsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Reidsville, Claxton, Glennville, Hagan, Daisy, Bellville, Manassas
and Mendes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8222 3227 8196 3222 8182 3213 8178
      3209 8173 3199 8185 3181 8203 3187 8211
      3189 8212 3189 8213 3191 8213 3190 8215
      3191 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 228DEG 30KT 3192 8211