Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
231 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure
through Friday. A front could move into the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar composites show a band of scattered showers/tstms
extending from much of central Georgia southeast along the
lower Altamaha River basin. This activity is slowly congealing
ahead of a well-defined vorticity maximum that is currently
moving across south-central Georgia. The vort max will gradually
move east across far Southeast Georgia through the rest of the
afternoon into early evening before exiting off the coast.
Expect scattered shower/tstms to persist across much of eastern
Georgia through the remainder of the afternoon and into evening
hours before gradually weakening with the loss of insolation. A
pocket of lower theta air between 850-700 hPa is progged to
remain across much of eastern South Carolina which should
suppress convective development there. The only exception could
be along the pinned sea breeze circulation where moisture is a
bit deeper per latest RAP soundings. Will continue to show
20-30% pops across much of Southern South Carolina with 30-50%
pops across Southeast Georgia, highest along the Altamaha River
counties arching back into Jenkins and Screven Counties.

Modified soundings at KSAV, KCWV and KLHW show DCAPEs 1000-1200
J/kg along/south of the I-16 corridor. This could support an
isolated pulse severe tstm or two through early evening with
damaging winds being the primary hazard.

A warm, moist airmass will remain place through the night with
12z guidance showing a potential for several impulses crossing
the region after midnight. This will be enough to justify low-
end mentionable pops through the night. Lows will range from
the mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The Southeast coast will remain in the transition zone between upper
level troughing to the west and ridging to the south and east early
in the week. A subtle mid-to-upper level shortwave looks to work
across the Southeast Monday, providing modest dynamic
destabilization. Additional weak mid-to-upper level waves rounding
the base of the upper level trough to our west could provide for
increased storm coverage Tuesday and Wednesday, but timing and
strength are difficult to pin down at this point.

In the lower levels, a warm, moist airmass will remain in place,
providing ample thermodynamic instability for convection each
afternoon. As usual, the sea breeze will provide a focus for
convective initiation, with scattered convection blossoming inland
most days as the convective temp is reached. Monday: have continued
likely POPs in the afternoon, and above climo POPs well into the
evening to account for the expected upper level features and PWATs
near 1 standard deviation above normal (>2 in) for mainly inland
areas. More typical summertime scattered convection expected for the
4th of July and Wednesday. Temps will be near normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered high pressure over the western Atlantic will
result in a fairly typical July pattern. Highs reaching into the
lower 90s with scattered showers and tstms, mainly in the
afternoon and evening. A weak front may drop into the area
Friday or Saturday, allowing somewhat drier air to filter in
from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Watching convective trends for possible tstm impacts at
KSAV this afternoon/evening. Most guidance keeps the bulk of
convection should of the terminal. Will continue with VCTS to
cover. No impacts are expected at KCHS.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
showers/thunderstorms at both KSAV and KCHS, mainly in the afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The synoptic pattern favors typical summer time
nocturnal surging across the waters tonight with winds generally
15 kt or so except 15-20 kt at times along the Charleston County
waters. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Both winds and seas look to
remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.

Monday through Friday: Broad Atlantic high pressure will remain in
control through the period. Expect light to moderate south to
southwest breezes to persist, with the normal summertime enhancement
near the coast in afternoon sea breezes.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1239 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-031645-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
Inland Berkeley-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-
Coastal Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
1239 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141-031645-
Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-
Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-
Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
1239 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Southeast
Georgia this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe thunderstorm
will be possible, mainly along and south of the I-16 corridor. The
primary hazard will be damaging winds and cloud to ground lightning.
Be prepared to take action should threatening weather approach or if
a warning is issued for your locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ137-138-140-141-021945-
Inland McIntosh-Inland Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-Long-
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...MCINTOSH
AND LONG COUNTIES...

At 309 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Tibet, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Tibet, Jones, Riceboro, Shellman Bluff, Retreat, Pine Harbor, South
Newport and Townsend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8165 3171 8169 3178 8143 3154 8130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 258DEG 27KT 3163 8166

CB