Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
337 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Later Today Into Tonight...

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area late tonight.
Strong high pressure will build in Thursday through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Still watching for the potential for a severe weather outbreak
through at least this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms
continue to develop from the Gulf coast northeast into central
SC ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface cold front.
Strengthening wind fields characterized by 0-6 km bulk shear of
60+ knots, and abundant instability characterized by MUCAPE of
3000+ J/kg, are expected across the area which will support
supercells capable of producing damaging straight- line winds
greater than 70 mph, large hail greater than golf balls, and
long-track and/or strong tornadoes. After the initial round this
evening there could be another shot for some severe
thunderstorms late tonight associated with the cold front and
strong negatively-tilted upper trough moving through the Deep
South. Also can't rule out some isolated flash flooding given
the heavy rain potential, mainly where storms train over the
same areas. Even outside the storms south/southwest winds will
be strong, gusting near 30 mph at times due to the strengthening
pressure gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The strong cold front will be moving offshore at or around
daybreak Thursday. Cooler and drier air will be rushing in as
high pressure builds from the west Thu into Fri. The strong
winds are the main concern on Thu. 40-50 kt WNW geostrophic flow
during the day with deep mixing via downslope flow will support
20-30 mph winds with frequent gusts to 45 mph. This supports a
Wind Advisory for all areas from 8 am until 8 pm Thursday.

Friday and Saturday: Quiet and dry as high pressure builds into the
region. Friday will get a bit gusty again, however will not be as
strong as Thursday. Much cooler temperatures are expected. Friday
night lows may even dip into the upper 30s far inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift into the Atlantic Sunday and
prevail through the middle of next week. Should be a quiet and dry
period with no weather concerns. Temperatures will generally be on a
warming trend as the forecast area becomes positioned on the
backside of the high and heights rise aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms expected to become more likely late afternoon
through at least this evening ahead of a strong cold front,
likely sooner at KSAV based on radar/high-res model trends.
Very strong winds, greater than 50 kt, and hail greater than
golf ball size are possible as well as strong tornadoes with any
storms. Even outside convection, strong/gusty winds will
increase through the period, with gusts near 30 kt after
daybreak as winds veer to the west.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty west winds continuing through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching
cold front which should be near the coast toward daybreak.
Expect SCA conditions to develop all waters this evening with
gale force gusts likely toward daybreak as winds shift more
southwesterly. Seas will build up to 8-9 ft toward the Gulf
Stream late. Thunderstorms are expected through most of the
night which could produce hazardous conditions, including
large hail and damaging wind gusts, as well as waterspouts.

Thursday through Monday: 40-45 kt west geostrophic winds by
daybreak Thu will produce frequent gale force gusts across all
marine zones for much of the day. Gusty winds will continue into
Thu night and Fri but the speeds should drop off enough that we
can drop the Gale Warning at midnight Thu night.

Seas will remain elevated across the offshore waters into Fri
night after which all marine areas should stay below advisory
thresholds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ330-350-352-354-374.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night
     for AMZ330-350-352-354-374.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-061000-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ350-352-354-374-061000-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Severe thunderstorms: Severe thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds greater than 70 mph, large hail, and waterspouts expected
through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, with the
greatest risk coming tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-061000-
Charleston Harbor-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

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