Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
346 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will continue
to build from the northwest through the weekend while the front
lingers offshore. A wave of low pressure could form along the front
on Saturday, then shift northeast away from the area through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front stretching from off the SC coast through around the
Charleston tri-county area and toward the CSRA will continue to
push southeast into southeast GA overnight. The best coverage of
showers and thunderstorms should be near the coast through
early evening as the sea breeze adds to the low-level
convergence and instability peaks. Cannot rule out a severe
storm or two, mainly where mesoscale boundaries collide, and
even some locally heavy rain which could cause minor flooding,
mainly in low- lying and poor drainage areas. Could see a little
fog develop, mainly where rain occurs and until winds pick up
late. Lows should range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the
upper 70s along the GA coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 12Z guidance continues a drier trend for the Fri-Sun period.
High pressure will gradually build southeast into the area
through the period while the front lingers just off the coast.

The drier PWATs won't push into the area until late Friday
afternoon into Friday night, leaving 1.75-1.9" values across
coastal SC and much of southeast GA Friday afternoon. Thus,
slightly better convective coverage expected Friday, mainly in
the afternoon in coastal areas.

Mainly dry weather expected Saturday through Sunday except for
showers and tstms over the marine area and immediate coastal
areas. Temps will be below normal due to cold air advection,
yielding highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Large uncertainty in the forecast. A surface low will develop
off the Southeast coast and gradually drift northeast. Meanwhile
the remnants of Hurricane Harvey may impact the area early to
mid next week. At least scattered showers and tstms expected
during the period. Daytime warming will likely be moderated by
cloud cover and precipitation, holding highs in the mid-80s. By
early Tuesday, deeper moisture may provide greater coverage of
convection, but model solutions diverge considerably by this
time, increasing forecast uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR but some showers/thunderstorms are expected through
the 18Z TAF period with a slow-moving cold front pushing through
the area along with deep moisture and some shortwave/upper jet
forcing. The best chance for impacts will be mid afternoon
through early evening as the sea breeze develops. Also could see
low ceilings late tonight behind the front. For now we have limited
conditions to MVFR but IFR or lower conditions are possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Thunderstorms may
result in short periods of flight restrictions, mainly Friday
and then again early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: An inland cold front will move southeast through the
area as inland high pressure begins to wedge down into the
SC Midlands. Winds should range from 10-15 kt, veering from
southerly to more westerly late. Seas will average 2-4 ft,
highest near the Gulf Stream.

Friday through Monday: Modest northeast flow expected Friday
and Friday night, then strengthening considerably on Saturday as
high pressure continues to build from the northwest and low
pressure forms off the coast. Small Craft Advisories are
expected beginning at varying times on Saturday, though
conditions in Charleston Harbor may remain just below criteria.
The greatest chance of advisory conditions in the harbor will be
25 kt gusts during afternoon sea breezes. The low pressure
system appears poised to cross over or near our coastal waters
early next week, but considerable uncertainty exists.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The temperature and dew point sensors at the Downtown
Charleston observation site (KCXM) could periodically fail.
Parts are on order and technicians will attempt to resolve the
problem once they arrive.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1154 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-251000-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
1154 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Some thunderstorms could become severe with
damaging winds this afternoon through early evening with frequent
cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-251000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-
1154 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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