Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1111 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through early this evening followed by
high pressure through Friday night. Another storm system will
affect the area Saturday and Saturday night, then high pressure
will prevail through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quick Update: Conditions are becoming more favorable for
convection across the area. The area remains under a slight risk
and Mesoscale Discussions from SPC continues to indicate an
ongoing potential. The line appears to moving faster than the
grids showed, so updated to reflect the latest radar trends,
along with faster clearing behind the line. Temperatures have
also been adjusted. Otherwise, the previous thinking continues.

W/V images indicated a closed mid level low near the MS/AL
line, tracking east. South of the closed low, the axis of a
slightly positively tilted trough existed well into the Gulf of
Mexico, east of the MS delta. At the sfc, the center of low
pressure and an associated a strong cold front is moving
eastward.

During the morning hours, near term models indicates that the
closed low will open to a trough, with the center of the H5 vort
tracking over the I-20 corridor across the Southeast U.S. The
sfc low is expected to slide over southern AL and GA, SW H85
winds have strengthened to 50-55 kts across the forecast area.
Strengthening return flow has allowed sfc dewpoints to reach
the low 60s F. As sfc temperatures rise, SBCAPE values are
expected to reach between 800-1000 J/kg. However, the strongest
llvl winds are forecast to pass over the CWA through the early
afternoon hours, with 0-1 km helicity reaching between 250-350
M^2/S^2. NAM12 shows that values of 0-1km EHI will peak between
1-2 M^2/s^2 across the coastal counties through early afternoon.
Fropa should occur around sunset, followed by much drier air
and veering winds. Conditions will feature clearing sky cover
and decreasing winds. Low temperatures are forecast to range
from the mid 30s across the Santee basin to the low 40s across
SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cool high pressure will build across the area Thursday, bringing
temperatures closer to normal for a day. However, the center of
the high will quickly shift offshore in response to a building
upper ridge. A warm advection regime on Friday will push temps
back above normal to the low 70s. A southern stream shortwave
will move through on Saturday along with a weak surface feature.
Moisture return will be limited, thus only scattered showers
currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unseasonably strong deep layered ridge will maintain well
above-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Temps may approach
80 early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12z TAFs: Gusty SW winds are developing ahead of an approaching
cold front. MVFR ceilings are expected into this afternoon.
Brief IFR is possible with TSRA. Timing will likely be adjusted
as the front/storms are moving faster than expected. FROPA is
expected 1-2 hrs before sunset, TAFs will feature winds veering
from the NNW through the evening hours with VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will approach the coastal waters today. A line
of thunderstorms is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold
front, passing across the coastal waters today into early this
evening. As the front approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten
and will support gusty conditions, reaching Small Craft Advisory
levels today. Cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will
support gusty winds this evening, but wind gusts will gradually
weaken.

Benign marine conditions anticipated Thursday through early next
week as high pressure remains the dominant feature.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. Additional parts have
been delivered. The radar will likely not be available for much
of today. Users should use adjacent WSR-88Ds for radar
information. These sites include KLTX, KCAE, KJGX, KVAX and
KJAX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ350-
     352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ374.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
340 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-160845-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
340 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: A line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop
along and ahead of a strong cold front today. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible from mid morning into the mid afternoon hours.
Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be the primary threat.
However, an isolated tornado will also be possible, especially over
parts of Southeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail and damaging winds to the National Weather
Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1031 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

GAZ087-088-099-100-151600-
Bulloch-Candler-Jenkins-Screven-
1031 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...BULLOCH...
JENKINS AND CANDLER COUNTIES...

At 1030 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Stillmore, or 10 miles south of Swainsboro,
moving east at 80 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Statesboro, Metter, Middleground, Westside, Portal, Pulaski, Rocky
Ford and Woodcliff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8220 3247 8218 3253 8214 3256 8209
      3254 8203 3261 8200 3265 8206 3278 8175
      3248 8155 3233 8224 3234 8224 3235 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 250DEG 70KT 3246 8227

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1118 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

GAZ088-100-101-SCZ042-047-151645-
Bulloch-Screven-Effingham-Inland Jasper-Hampton-
1118 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...BULLOCH...
EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 1118 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Kildare, or 14 miles northwest of
Springfield, moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Ridgeland, Hampton, Varnville, Estill, Newington, Oliver, Furman and
Scotia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 8165 3269 8151 3287 8105 3252 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 255DEG 50KT 3256 8144

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1128 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

GAZ100-114-115-151700-
Bulloch-Evans-Tattnall-
1128 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EVANS...BULLOCH AND
TATTNALL COUNTIES...

At 1127 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Bellville, or near Claxton, moving east at
60 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Claxton, Bay, Brooklet, Hagan, Bellville, Manassas, Nevils and
Denmark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8204 3228 8199 3227 8197 3229 8196
      3245 8152 3243 8154 3239 8153 3235 8149
      3234 8149 3233 8146 3226 8143 3224 8144
      3220 8159 3214 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 255DEG 50KT 3221 8197