Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Charleston, SC

292 
WGUS62 KCHS 232205
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
605 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Heavy rainfall is expected late tonight and Monday, flash
flooding is possible...

.A strong and slow moving upper level disturbance will approach
from the west on Monday. Bands of torrential rains are expected
to develop across the Low Country late tonight nearing high tide
early Monday morning. Rains should begin to diminish in coverage
and intensity later in the day.

SCZ045-050-052-240615-
/O.CON.KCHS.FF.A.0001.170424T1000Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
605 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of Southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley. 

* from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
  produce rainfall amounts from 4 to 6 inches from northern and 
  eastern Berkeley County to northeastern Charleston County. 
  Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be in the 2 
  to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in
  the Charleston Harbor will occur just before 7 am EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

047 
WGUS62 KCHS 232206
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
606 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FLASH 
FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.A strong and slow moving upper level disturbance will approach
from the west on Monday. Bands of torrential rains are expected
to develop across the Low Country late tonight nearing high tide
early Monday morning. Rains should begin to diminish in coverage
and intensity later in the day.

SCZ045-050-052-240615-
/O.CON.KCHS.FF.A.0001.170424T1000Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
606 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley. 

* from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
  produce rainfall amounts from 4 to 6 inches from northern and 
  eastern Berkeley County to northeastern Charleston County. 
  Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be in the 2 
  to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be 
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in 
  the Charleston Harbor will occur just before 7 am EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

931 
WGUS62 KCHS 240137
FFACHS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
937 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.A strong and slow moving upper level disturbance will approach
from the west on Monday. Bands of torrential rains are expected
to develop across the Low Country late tonight nearing high tide
early Monday morning. Rains should begin to diminish in coverage
and intensity later in the day.

SCZ044-240945-
/O.EXB.KCHS.FF.A.0001.170424T0600Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-
Including the cities of Saint George and Summerville
937 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast South 
  Carolina, including the following area, Dorchester. 

* from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
  produce rainfall amounts from 3 to 6 inches, highest across
  northern and eastern Berkeley County into upper Charleston 
  County. Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be in
  the 2 to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be 
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in 
  the Charleston Harbor will occur just before 7 am EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

SCZ045-050-052-240945-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FF.A.0001.170424T0600Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
937 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley. 

* from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
  produce rainfall amounts from 3 to 6 inches, highest across
  northern and eastern Berkeley County into upper Charleston 
  County. Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be in
  the 2 to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be 
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in 
  the Charleston Harbor will occur just before 7 am EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

838 
WGUS62 KCHS 240209
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.A strong and slow moving upper level disturbance will approach
from the west on Monday. Bands of torrential rains are expected
to develop across the Low Country late tonight nearing high tide
early Monday morning. Rains should begin to diminish in coverage
and intensity later in the day.

SCZ044-045-050-052-241015-
/O.CON.KCHS.FF.A.0001.170424T0600Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Saint George, Summerville, Goose Creek, 
Moncks Corner, Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, 
and Daniel Island
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Dorchester, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal 
  Berkeley. 

* from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
  produce rainfall amounts from 3 to 6 inches, highest across 
  northern and eastern Berkeley County into upper Charleston 
  County. Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be 
  in the 2 to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be 
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in 
  the Charleston Harbor will occur just before 7 am EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

504 
WGUS62 KCHS 240751
FFACHS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
351 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ044-045-050-052-241600-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170424T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Saint George, Summerville, Goose Creek, 
Moncks Corner, Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, 
and Daniel Island
351 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following
  counties, Charleston, Dorchester, and Berkeley. 

* Through this afternoon.

* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
  produce rainfall amounts from 3 to 6 inches, highest across 
  northern and eastern Berkeley County into upper Charleston 
  County. Rains in the Charleston Metro area are expected to be 
  in the 2 to 4 inch range. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street
  flooding and flooded properties. The risk for flooding will be
  especially high around high tide Monday morning. High tide in
  the Charleston Harbor will occur around 7 am EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

998 
WGUS62 KCHS 241430
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1030 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ044-045-050-052-242200-
/O.CON.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170424T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Saint George, Summerville, Goose Creek, 
Moncks Corner, Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, 
and Daniel Island
1030 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following
  counties, Charleston, Dorchester, and Berkeley.

* until 6 PM EDT this evening

* A band of heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to
  move northeast of Charleston through the day but there is the
  potential for additional heavy rainfall through the afternoon.
  Given the recent flooding from this morning's heavy rain, it
  will not take as much rainfall to produce more flooding,
  although fortunately for coastal locales tides will be lower 
  through much of the afternoon. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street
  flooding and flooded properties. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

142 
WGUS62 KCHS 241920
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ044-242030-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170424T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-
Including the cities of Saint George and Summerville
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast South Carolina
has been cancelled. 

Although some heavy rainfall is possible at times through the 
afternoon the risk of significant and widespread flash flooding 
is now greatly diminished. 

$$

SCZ045-050-052-242200-
/O.CON.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170424T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following
  counties, Charleston and Berkeley. 

* until 6 PM EDT this evening

* Some heavier showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times
  through the rest of the afternoon, mainly around and north of
  Charleston. Given the wet ground from this morning's heavy rain
  and the increasing tides, it will not take as much additional
  rain to produce more flooding. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

940 
WGUS62 KCHS 242133
FFACHS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
533 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ045-050-052-250000-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170425T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
533 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley. 

* until 8 PM EDT this evening

* Some heavier showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times
  through early evening. Given the wet ground from this morning's
  heavy rain and the increasing tides, it will not take as much 
  additional rain to produce more flooding. 

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

772 
WGUS62 KCHS 242327
FFACHS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
727 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ045-050-052-250200-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170425T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, Charleston, 
North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
727 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Charleston, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley. 

* until 10 PM EDT this evening

* Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
  across portions of Berkeley and Charleston counties this
  evening. The risk for flash flooding continues.

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

517 
WGUS62 KCHS 250146
FFACHS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ050-052-250300-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170425T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Charleston, North Charleston, 
Mount Pleasant, and Daniel Island
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Tidal Berkeley and Charleston Counties
has been cancelled. 

$$

SCZ045-250400-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170425T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek and Moncks Corner
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of southeast South Carolina, including the following 
  area, Inland Berkeley. 

* until midnight EDT tonight

* A risk for flash flooding will continue across much of Berkeley
  County through midnight as numerous showers and thunderstorms
  continue to impact the county. Activity is expected to diminish
  after midnight, thus ending the risk for flooding.

* Flooding could occur quickly, especially in low-lying and poor 
  drainage areas. Be prepared for the possibility of street 
  flooding and flooded properties. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to protect life and property, especially in areas
prone to flooding. If flooding develops, move to higher ground
immediately. If driving, be prepared for flooded roadways and
possible road closures.

&&

$$

295 
WGUS62 KCHS 250343
FFACHS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1143 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SCZ045-250445-
/O.EXP.KCHS.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170425T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Berkeley-
Including the cities of Goose Creek and Moncks Corner
1143 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch for Inland Berkeley County will expire at 
midnight EDT tonight. The risk for flash flooding has diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
127 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will affect the area today through Tuesday.
High pressure will then build into the area through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The synoptic pattern today will feature a cut-off upper
low digging into the Gulf coast states. At the surface, a
low pressure system, currently centered over northern GA, will
shift east in central GA through the day, with a relatively
stationary front positioned just to our north. This will place
the forecast area within the warm sector, allowing for another
warm day with highs mainly in the mid 80s inland of the beaches.
The best large scale forcing appears to remain out of the area
through the daylight hours, so still think afternoon convection
will initiate off of mesoscale boundaries such as the sea
breeze. With the early afternoon update, made minor tweaks to
PoPs based on latest radar trends and hourly t/td grids.

Tonight: The forecast is expected to become considerably more
interesting after sunset. The upper low is expected to
strengthen as it tracks into central Georgia late tonight and
impressive deep forcing for ascent will overspread the forecast
area. The surface low is progged to reach the forecast area
around midnight and linger in the vicinity through the rest of
the overnight. The first item of interest is the potential for
severe thunderstorms beginning in the evening as the low and
associated ongoing convection approach from the west. Wind
profiles will begin to increase and thanks to low level south-
southeasterly flow, decent veering of the flow with height will
be present. The magnitude of shear isn't too impressive (on the
order of 20-25 knots), but storm relative helicity will increase
thanks to the veering with height. As always seems to be the
case, instability will be main factor in question. There are
indications in NAM and RAP soundings that CAPE values could be
in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but it is certainly a
climatologically unfavorable time with the loss of diurnal
heating. So, the atmosphere could be conducive to the
development of supercell structures depending on how the
instability evolves. Given the uncertainties regarding the
instability and whether or not it will be rooted in the surface,
will not introduce a mention to the HWO with this package. The
main area would likely be southeast Georgia and along the
Savannah River through midnight, with strong wind gusts, hail,
and even a tornado possible if conditions work out just right.

The other forecast concern is the potential for an area of
intense rainfall to develop late. Forcing dynamics are quite
impressive with the models depicting a slot of intense jet
dynamics coincident with vorticity advection as the upper low
draws closer. Model consensus shows precipitable water values
increasing to around 1.5 inches which would be near the daily
observed maximum value. The combination of a deep moisture feed
off the Atlantic with high precipitable water values, and
focused forcing creates increased confidence in a zone of high
rainfall rates in the presence of convection. Models show good
agreement that the most likely area to be impacted will be from
around the Savannah River up to the Tri- County region. This
would likely begin to setup in the early morning hours and
rainfall amounts by sunrise Monday could approach 2 inches in
some areas. The risk for widespread flash flooding appears to be
low however, thanks to well below normal rainfall over the last
couple of months. Likely to categorical PoP's are warranted,
and we have also added a mention of locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Now that the models have further slowed the progression of the
storm system, Monday now looks rather interesting. The powerful
closed upper low will move directly over the forecast area
while the associated surface low gradually shifts through
central GA/SC. Deep onshore flow will advect 1.5" PWATs into
southern SC which is around the 95th percentile for late April.
Additionally, strong synoptic forcing will exist in this area
until mid to late Monday afternoon. At a minimum we expect
numerous showers with heavy rain at times, especially over the
northeastern portion of the area through early Monday afternoon.
Instability parameters vary between the models, though all
agree on at least -2 to -3C Lifted Indices in the Tri-County
area and CAPEs ranging from 300 to 800 J/kg. The NAM is
considerably more bullish with instability than the rest of the
models. Extensive cloud cover will likely inhibit the
development of significant CAPE though low-level theta-e
advection will yield at least something to work with. 30-40 kt
0-6 km shear values would support some storm organization if
enough buoyancy develops. The best chance for severe weather
would be with a quasi-linear complex that could develop along
and ahead of the cold front Mon afternoon. Damaging winds and
large hail would be the main concerns.

The area has remained fairly dry as of late, so widespread
flooding is not anticipated despite the possibility of a few
inches of rainfall. The flooding potential would be higher in
coastal areas if heavy rain coincides with high tide since tide
levels will be running above normal.

Light showers may persist into Monday night and Tuesday, mainly
across southern SC due to wrap around moisture as the low
pressure system departs.

Cooler temps anticipated Mon into Tuesday though temps quickly
warm back up by Wednesday as upper ridging occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will result in dry weather and highs in
the mid to upper 80s. A weak upper shortwave will approach early
Friday but is expected to be deflected to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight as a low
pressure system impacts the area. Shower/t'storm coverage is
expected to increase overnight with associated low ceilings and
reduced visibility likely to impact both terminals.
Precipitation will end in the morning at SAV, and a bit later at
CHS. Sub-VFR cigs could persist through the end of the valid
TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions,
mainly low ceilings, possible Monday morning through Tuesday
morning as a low pressure system moves through. Heavier rains
around KCHS are possible Sunday night into Monday resulting in
potential vsbys restrictions at times as well. VFR conditions
will return Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The local waters will be caught in the region between
the surface low to the west and high pressure to the east. The
pressure gradient and low level jet will steadily increase
through the day and strengthening south to south-southeasterly
flow is expected. Current thinking keeps winds in the 15-20 knot
range, with the strongest winds expected in the tonight period.
However, Charleston Harbor could see gusts to 25 knots with the
proximity to the land/sea interface. Have kept the forecast
15-20 knots in the Charleston Harbor for now, but a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed if winds are stronger than expected. Seas
will increase by later in the day, but will generally range 2-4
feet.

Tonight: The low level jet will increase further as the surface
low draws closer and confidence has increased in Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the Charleston County waters and the
outer Georgia waters. The advisory begins at 02z for both zones.
Elsewhere, conditions will likely be borderline advisory
levels, but confidence isn't as high there. Seas will increase
to become 3-5 feet out to 20 nm and 5-6 feet beyond. Strong
thunderstorms will become more of a concern around and after
midnight, and the strongest storms will be capable of strong
gusts and even a waterspout or two.

Residual 6 ft seas expected to persist over the offshore GA
waters through midday Mon and Mon eve for the Charleston
nearshore waters.

Modest offshore winds expected Mon night into Tue behind the
low pressure system with seas over the offshore GA waters
possibly rising back above 6 ft for a brief period.

Southerly winds will return mid to late week as Atlantic high
pressure prevails.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Monday for AMZ374.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ350.

&&

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...ECT/JRL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
944 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042-
047-048-051-241345-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Jasper-
944 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

SCZ043>045-049-050-052-241345-
Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Coastal Colleton-
Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
944 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Excessive rainfall: Atlantic moisture will build onshore ahead of a
an area of low pressure along the Savannah River. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity overnight
resulting in a risk for locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding,
especially nearing the morning high tide cycle along the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Excessive rainfall: A strong and slow moving upper level disturbance
will cross Georgia and coastal South Carolina Monday and Monday
night while a steady feed of moisture off the Atlantic persists into
at least Monday evening. Heavy rains are expected with a potential
for locally excessive rainfall resulting in flash flooding,
especially in urban areas and around the times of high tide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.