Small Craft Advisory 95, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
345 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track across the region overnight and
Sunday morning followed by ridging of strong high pressure from
Central Canada late Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cldnss and sct flurries and lgt sn shwrs will cont to affect Nrn
ptns of the FA tngt into Sun as an upper lvl low movg E across
the Rgn from QB interacts with whats left of a occluded front
ovr NE NB prov and the Gaspe Peninsula of QB. Models have
backs off on much of measurable QPF affecting the Nern ptn of
the FA, so slgt chc to chc PoPs should cvr this event here with
lesser PoPs S and W, with sn shwrs and flurries diminishing
across the N Sun aftn.

Otherwise, the main story will be increasing WNW winds beginning
late tngt and cont thru the day Sun as re-enforcing arctic air
begins to advect into our FA. We have issued a win chill wrng
for zones 3...4 and 10 with a wind chill adv elsewhere across
our FA beginning 7 pm this eve thru Sun morn, with the greatest
wind chill impacts late tngt into Sun morn. Wind Chill advs
will likely cont Sun aftn across most of the N and Cntrl after
Sun morn in lieu of the 3 wind chill wrng zones ending at noon
Sun. Winds/wind gusts will be in the 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph across all of the Rgn by midday Sun contg thru the
aftn making fcst high temps arnd zero across the N to mid to
upper single digits Downeast feel very bitter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued well below normal temperatures can be expected
through the short term. H5 Trof remains across Northern New
England with surface low remaining nearly stationary vicinity
Labrador. This will keep bitterly cold airmass in place across
the region through the period with mainly dry weather expected.
Expect widespread low temperature readings 10 below to 20 below
across the area both Sunday night and Monday night. Could even
see a few lows around 30 below zero across the colder locations
of northwest Maine both nights. Highs both Monday and Tuesday
only zero to 5 above zero.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair but continued very cold weather will continue Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Lows Tuesday night will generally
range from 10 below to 15 below zero across the entire area.
Highs on Wednesday will be a bit milder and range from around 10
above across the far north and upper teens to lower 20s down
east. Lows Wednesday night will also be bit milder ranging from
zero to 5 above north and 10 to 15 above down east.

Our attention the turns to the potential for a significant winter
storm later Thursday and Thursday night. 12z operational GFS is
furthest east and has a 950 mb low crossing eastern Nova Scotia
06z Fri (Thursday night). 12Z EC is further west and has a 956
mb low crossing western Nova Scotia at the same time. 12z
Canadian NH is even a bit further west than the EC and tracks
the low across Yarmouth Nova Scotia and then across western New
Brunswick Province. The exact track, to say the least, is
highly uncertain at this time.

A lot will hinge on the degree of any phasing with a short wave
that will be dropping out of the great lakes region later
Thursday and Thursday night and the southern stream system off
the mid atlantic region. Decided to up pops a bit from the model
blend, with low categorical across eastern Washington county
and low likely remainder of eastern Maine.

The low pulls away on Friday with lingering snow showers
expected. Another reinforcing shot of arctic air will follow for
early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR clgs and attms vsbys with sct sn shwrs can be
xpctd across Nrn TAF sites tngt into Sun with VFR conditions
across Downeast sites.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Sunday night through
Wednesday. There is the potential for widespread snow by
Thursday with IFR or lower conditions possible along with
blowing snow.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: We xpct mdt fzy spy conditions to return to all of
our waters by late tngt as winds increase contg thru the day
Sun and into Sun ngt. Winds will likely reach SCA thresholds by
erly Sun morn contg into Sun ngt. Kept close to WW3/NWPS wv
guidance for fcst wv hts.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are possible
Sun night and again Monday night and Tuesday. Freezing spray
will be an issue and a freezing spray advisory is in effect
through Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NAT will remain around +1.5 thru the next week, but driving
teleconnection patterns transition from TNH+/EP-NP+ to PNA+ and
then back to PNA+/EP-NP+ will result in the residence factor
remaining moderate to high. The arctic area index (Aai) reaches
a max of 75 to 80 percent Sun and Mon with the Deep arctic area
index (DAai) only in the 25 to 30 percent range, not quite
qualifying for N. Amer. arctic log jam episode before both
values slowly diminish later this week, xcpt for a spike of
bitter to very bitter arctic air with ami's spiking to 85 to 90
ovr Ern Ont and Wrn QB on Fri behind a potentially major E coast
nor'easter cyclone.

Speaking of this storm, the transition of driving teleconnection
patterns from TNH+ to PNA+ as a sig N Pacific s/wv alf - sfc
cyclone is underway by mid week is a good set up for a major
west Atlc/E coast storm system as lot of very cold mid and low
lvl cold air punches swrd as far south as the TN vly and Srn
Aplchns. Attm, the most sig U.S. impact from this late week
storm may be ern New Eng including Nrn/Ern ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday
     for MEZ001-002-005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
     Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday
     for MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ050>052.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...VJN/Duda
Marine...VJN/Duda

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